Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Still think we rally tomorrow but not because of Battery Day, but what's said during the Shareholders meeting. Still have a hunch Elon is going to slip out 2021 guidance. That or they'll re-confirm 500k+ for this year.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wouldn't be battery day with our fav GJ making his dumb comments;

Enjoy! "5 people have died according to tesladeaths.com relying on tesla's battery technology"...Did not know that batteries killed people....Guess you learn something new every day.

Dude even compared $NKLA to $TSLA....god..this guy is soooooooooo STUPID!

He must have stood in front of the mirror for months to rehearse that rant...

 

[bkp_duke]

He's just an honorary member of $TSLAQ.....i wonder how much $$ him and his clients have lost on $TSLA.....that is assuming he has any clients that aren't friends and family.

Even if I were his friend, or family, I sure as hell would not let that moron touch my money.

My Doberman has better investment skilz than him.

 

[S3XY]

Jeff Dahn discovered that battery longevity can be measured quickly and directly without extensive testing. It is done with sensitive electrical measuring equipment that can very accurately measure the resistance of the cell as it goes through a few charge/discharge cycles.

...

This raises the question, then what will blow our minds? I think Elon was referring to the scale and speed of manufacturing/lowering of costs that his vision results in. And that "blowing your mind" will not happen overnight - it takes time to build the machine that builds the batteries. But they have a proof of process production line running at Kato Rd. as we speak that I believe will be shown to the world this afternoon. From there it's just a matter of scaling processes and supplies - still a big task but I don't think they would be sharing it with the world if they couldn't see the path with clarity.



Well, anything is possible but I doubt it. Here's why:

The basic process and product performance are both already proven or they wouldn't be at this stage of announcing it. It's just a matter of scaling production up. The machines set up to produce the batteries have to get bigger/faster. And that leverages one of Tesla's particular strengths - the ability to solve problems.

Has betting against Elon and team served you well before? I didn't think so!

I think Elon is blown away because he knows how hard it is to improve each of the three diametrically opposed attributes of a battery, high energy, long life, and fast charging. To significantly improve all of them at the same time is almost unheard of. On top of that I'd also add increased production speed and the resulting cost reduction as well. The average person would have no clue how hard this really is. But for someone like Elon who understands all the opposing factors it's mind blowing.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still think we rally tomorrow but not because of Battery Day, but what's said during the Shareholders meeting. Still have a hunch Elon is going to slip out 2021 guidance. That or they'll re-confirm 500k+ for this year.

A restatement of 500k for this year would put that ambiguous "leaked" email to bed...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

A restatement of 500k for this year would put that ambitious "leaked" email to bed...

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if that email was address to US employees and Fred purposely didn't disclose that. Did he even post the email in it's entirety?

Edit: The nice little bit of karma is that apparently Fred wasn't invited to Battery Day and boy he has his panties in a bunch about it

 

[Artful Dodger]

If there is a "one more thing" today, perhaps it will be an update on the roadster and its spacex package.

So, show off a ear-splitting rocket on bty day? That'd be like wearing a pink tuxedo to your daughter's wedding. Ah, no.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

after they are done talking the roadster casually flies over the stage.

... with the 150+ decibels that a hovering 5,000 lb rocket would make, they'll be done LISTENING for about 3 days (then have ringing ears for about a year).

Did I mention that the FAA frowns on flying experimental/prototype rockets near people?

Faq.

 

[Buckminster]

Recommended guideline for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted

Other threads will get limited use but starting a new one for a specific topic would probably be welcome. Gigafactory thread. Tesla Energy thread. Resources. Semi. Battery Day thread here also.

And finally this might also be needed - When to Retire.

 

[StealthP3D]

Dude even compared $NKLA to $TSLA....god..this guy is soooooooooo STUPID!

Only a few hours before it's apparent to the most uninformed just how STUPID Gordon Johnson really is. Because he said twice that people think Tesla makes batteries but that Tesla doesn't make any batteries.

How that gonna look when we see Kato Rd. video of thousands of batteries snaking around a modern battery production line on high-speed conveyors?

 

[FYMR]

Former Chrysler CEO: Tesla faces challenge of building infrastructure to support EV, favorable pricing and demand for big vehicles

This guy could possibly be the most clueless person to ever speak about EV's on CNBC. It's jaw-dropingly stupid and he makes Bob Lutz look like Einstein.

People like this make me realize just how ahead of the curve Tesla really is and that lead is only getting wider as traditional automakers (with very few exceptions) seemed to be caught like a deer in the headlights.

Today's event will be very interesting and important to long term holders, I'm not sure what effect it will have on day to day gamblers. I don't really care anyway, long and staying that way.

Go TSLA
Go ELON

Cheers to the longs .....

As amazing as it may sound, his comments were even more incredibly stupid then today’s GJ comments. At least GJ is stupid on purpose. I am not to bright but even I know most of what this CEO said is false or completely mental.

CHEERS and Tesla just keep doing what you have been doing.

 

[AudubonB]

Recommended IN ORDER TO BE THOUGHT OF AS A PRODUCTIVE MEMBER OR TMC, HERE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT guideline for posting tonight

1. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted.

Blessedly written and now Moderator-amended post. Caveat scriptor.

 

[FYMR]

He must have stood in front of the mirror for months to rehearse that rant...

IDK. I do not think I have heard any other noise from his face other then what he said again for seemingly the 1000th time this year. It is as if he has only the same words no matter what the facts are.


Edit: actually you are right. The mirror is the camera lens or computer screen he has said the same thing into daily. Except they are live rehearsals

 

[PV4EV]

PLL still in suspended trading BTW- thought original announcement was it'd be trading again EITHER when announcement came, or at AUS market open Tuesday (which was over 12 hours ago) whichever came first?

Intriguing ...

.

 

[Jack6591]

I joined Troy Teslike’s Patreon site.

If you have the means, and I don’t know anyone that doesn’t, I highly recommend it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

in no particular order...
1. Recruiting : show what they're working on to attract top talent
2. PR : tell the world about what Tesla is up to and generate a lot of positive buzz for company
3. Announce upcoming products and generate consumer enthusiasm
4. Boost company morale

It's very similar to why Apple does their product announcement events instead of just doing a press release.

Events like this generate massive amounts of FREE PR for the company. To be precise, they cost Tesla less than $500K to put on but generate many multiples of that in advertising equivalent dollars. Plus all the reasons given above.

I would bet other car companies are pissed they can't get 1/10th the amount of PR Tesla does. They have to get positive press the old fashioned way, by paying for it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, what do you think Elon's goals are for Battery Day?

The goal is dog simple, as was announced by Elon more that a year ago during the 2019 AGM:

1. demonstrate the path to obtaining 2 TWh/yr of batteries
2. reduce the cost per kWh of those batteries

Most discussion since June 2019 has been media noise. There are a few informed sources of speculation that have credibility, for instance "The Limiting Factor" channel on Youtube and SoylentBrown (@BrownSoylent) / Twitter

Today, we get the "Master Plan v3" roadmap. Can't wait.

Cheers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Jeff Dahn discovered that battery longevity can be measured quickly and directly without extensive testing. It is done with sensitive electrical measuring equipment that can very accurately measure the resistance of the cell as it goes through a few charge/discharge cycles. This basically allows researchers to "see" the degradation happening in real time. It turns out that the most efficient cells (those with the lowest resistance) last the longest. Resistance = heat and heat = degradation and lack of efficiency. The techniques developed by Dahn and team have greatly speeded up the development of new chemistries and additives because the fast results can quickly guide researchers down the most productive paths.

That's not to say that conventional accelerated longevity/stress testing is not performed, but that the state of the art has progressed to the point that developers of new battery variations have a VERY good idea of their ultimate longevity long before the extended torture-testing is actually performed.

The specific chemistry and technology of the cells being produced at Kato Rd. have undoubtedly been under development for many years in the lab. Maybe you remember some comments Elon made about battery breakthroughs a couple of years ago when responding to people who were hoping for battery breakthroughs on grand scales? I could tell this naivety slightly irritated Musk. His response was something along the lines of "there is nothing of that magnitude on the immediate horizon" (or he would know about it). People bring their battery breakthroughs to Tesla first and Tesla follows battery research very closely so they are very aware of all the promising developments. He also said it takes something like at least 5 or more years to bring a new battery to market due to extensive laboratory testing and manufacturing development before bringing it to production. He said there are things in development that will increase energy density and other desirable metrics but these improvements are not orders of magnitude improvements but 10% here, 20% there types of improvements (I've paraphrased here). He also commented that bringing the cost of batteries down is one of the most important metrics to improve.

What we will see announced later today will be the result of years of work on the next generation of batteries. It will be better than the current state-of-the-art in more than one important metric but they will be relatively small/gradual "step changes", not orders of magnitude different. But that's all you need for a competitive advantage.

This raises the question, then what will blow our minds? I think Elon was referring to the scale and speed of manufacturing/lowering of costs that his vision results in. And that "blowing your mind" will not happen overnight - it takes time to build the machine that builds the batteries. But they have a proof of process production line running at Kato Rd. as we speak that I believe will be shown to the world this afternoon. From there it's just a matter of scaling processes and supplies - still a big task but I don't think they would be sharing it with the world if they couldn't see the path with clarity.

Before replying to the content, I just wanted to say I enjoy your comments but disagree with some of the ones in this post.

I agree that the desired chemistry is settled by Jeff + Elon, and have watched the videos on lab testing. But as you say conventional longevity testing of cells still needs to be performed. I'd expect those coming off the mass production line (as opposed to the lab/pilot production line) will incur this process to ensure they meet desired specs before actually producing at full tilt and getting the final signoff to put them into vehicles. Then there is still the gigantic task of expanding the supply lines and replicating manufacturing lines many times over all over the world. That's a difficult thing to do.

I'm sure you saw from the @gabeincal videos just how recently the Kato road facility has been completed. Here's a pic from 3 weeks ago. You can't tell me this is a production line that has been up and running for some time. They are most definitely in pilot phase.

Well, anything is possible but I doubt it. Here's why:

The basic process and product performance are both already proven or they wouldn't be at this stage of announcing it. It's just a matter of scaling production up. The machines set up to produce the batteries have to get bigger/faster. And that leverages one of Tesla's particular strengths - the ability to solve problems.

Has betting against Elon and team served you well before? I didn't think so!

Poor old "just" is doing some hard work here. Elon stated in his tweets just yesterday how challenging the task is (10x-100x) to mass produce something compared to the prototype. Surely thinking a little slippage in the timeline is not unreasonable given the circumstances.

I'm not betting against Elon, I've said multiple times that I'm leveraged into Tesla as I have that much confidence in him and the long term prospects of Tesla. However if you mean to ask has there been times where Elon has missed his stated timelines then I would have to give an emphatic yes. Luckily, I am leveraged via CFDs which have no time constraint, but many Tesla investors felt some pain from the slower than stated ramp of M3 including Rob Maurer and Karen Rai in Q1 19 (to name a couple of the most prominent).

I want Tesla to meet their targets, even beat them. But when scaling their Everest it is likely that it takes a little longer than expected to reach the top. I fear there is a casualness from many with which the difficulty of what is trying to be achieved can be reached - even the suggestion of a little slippage has lead to responses of 1k word replies.

Don't bet against Elon, but don't Bank on his timelines.

If you like, we can agree to reference this on Jan 1 2023 and one of us can say "I told you so". tweets included for reference.

 

[Tslynk67]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if that email was address to US employees and Fred purposely didn't disclose that. Did he even post the email in it's entirety?

Edit: The nice little bit of karma is that apparently Fred wasn't invited to Battery Day and boy he has his panties in a bunch about it

Yeah, I think it was Fremont-only too, but the wider market got spooked by it.

Now what's the Fremont record, 120k-ish? - add 40k from China and... seems too much, but you never know.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Only a few hours before it's apparent to the most uninformed just how STUPID Gordon Johnson really is. Because he said twice that people think Tesla makes batteries but that Tesla doesn't make any batteries.

How that gonna look when we see Kato Rd. video of thousands of batteries snaking around a modern battery production line on high-speed conveyors?

Not to mention that there is a big difference between a battery, which Tesla has made from day 1, and battery cells, which they are starting to now make. Heck, even the battery cell thing is old news in a way. While Panasonic currently makes Tesla's battery cells, Tesla has a huge hand in most aspects of those cells. Tesla is years ahead of all other auto manufacturers since they have zero influence/visibility/purchasing power/IP in battery cells.