Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Worlds largest battery manufacturers down 5% on news that "just a car company" unveils plans to compete.

So market says current battery mfgs now worth less because Tesla AND Tesla worth less because ?

 

[vikings123]

So market says current battery mfgs now worth less because Tesla AND Tesla worth less because ?

Sounds about right lol.

Tesla: We are an engineering, manufacturing and technology company and look at all the scale, cost improvements and efficiencies we are going after. The future is happening now.

Market: No million mile battery? Sell sell sell.

Nikola: We fired our exec chairman and essentially don’t know what our future looks like.

Market: Sounds good to me. Buy buy buy.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Today felt like what I feel like mist of happened back in those days I don't think battery cell suppliers will make the same mistakes big auto did. I get the feeling well hear some amazing partner deals come together in the next few months.

We've pretty much entered into an age of innovation. Maybe Battery Day pushes battery makers to a new level. Or, at least pushes them to keep up with Tesla before they go the way of Ford.

 

[jerry33]

IF Tesla does have a deal with Piedmont Lithium I will stop believing Elon is open and honest. It was made clear that the lithium in Nevada is more than enough for TSLA for many years to come. AND they told us they have the option to mine 10,000 acres. And they made it a point to tell us about how little environmental impact it would have on the desert.
And that having the material close to the battery plant is a significant advantage.

Nonsense. A while ago Elon was talking about a third North American plant on the East Coast somewhere. It only makes sense to have a close supply of lithium to that plant.

 

[Cape Coddess]

If you want to heat your house (in Upstate NY) without burning oil or gas, is there any other option? Wait for Tesla HVAC?

(This is a serious question, I'm not disagreeing with your post.)

I use mini splits. I also have solar panels to run them with.

 

[jerry33]

The question I have is: are cheaper batteries necessary at all if FSD is solved?

Of course. Once FSD is solved, it will be copied (just like the iPhone was copied). I believe Elon said in ten years everyone will have FSD. Not cheaper means the competition can undercut.

 

[kbM3]

A 2170 had a 1meter long anode/catode sandwich - making this tabless = 50cm travel turns into 7cm travel. = theoretical 7x improvement

The new 4680 battery - should have a 2meter (?) sandwich, tab in the middle = tab distance 100cm which turn into 8cm with tabless. = 12.5x improvement.

And the effect on heat management - Just WOW. = No more heat issues!

This was the part which I would have like to get more info on.

What effect does this have on longevity?
What effect does this have on SuperCharger rates?
What effect does this have on cooling needs? Less energy spent on heat management?
Can this be implemented on 2170 batteries from Panasonic at gigafactory?

All batteries used should be tabless asap. No need to stick with tabs.

IIRC, during the presentation they stated the electrical path was reduced from 250 mm to 50 mm or 5X.

 

[jerry33]

What if price of gas eventually drops to $1/gallon? Maybe it would have no effect on Tesla sales, IDK.

$1/gal would make an ICE car the equivalent of a 2013 S IF the ICE car gets a real 40 mpg lifetime average. Try fifty cents/gal to be actually competitive. That puts negative profits to the fossil fuel companies. Gas can't go down low enough to compete.

 

[Mo City]

Karen chimes in.

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1308723500979499009?s=19

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I didn't read much about it here, but if I remember correctly Elon and Drew said that Tesla will do its own recycling. It was good to hear that. And I guess this means JB's venture is out of the picture. The fact that he recently started collaborating with Tesla's 'competitors' was already a sign.

 

[mickificki]

Goldman Sachs also raised pt to $400.

Baird increases pt to $360.
https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1308732077152624642?s=21

also, MS said BD largely lived up to its hype

https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1308728581732827136?s=21

 

[ZachF]

Yep, they have just been handed their going-out-of-business timeline. Superior, less expensive cars will be available in three years, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

Model 2 will have close to 300 miles range (per Elon), and it's new $50/kWh bty pack will be an LFP chemistry ("Medium" Range Tesla vehicles, per "Bty Day" presentation).

This is quite profound. Look for all 3/Y SR versions to also switch to Iron bty chemistry (LFP). The cost advantages are undeniable, and the with tabless dry process cells, their performance is as good as current NCA chemistry bty packs.

Did anybody else notice that onstage today Drew said that these new manufacturing process apply equally to Iron battery cells?

It's also important notice that Elon said Iron battery's have 50-60% of the range of nickel batteries. But the total stack of Tesla bty manufacturing innovations add 56% to the range of a vehicle (per the "Bty Day" slide).

I think this settles it: in the future, Tesla Std Rge (SR) vehicles will come with Iron (LFP) based chemistry, and will cost about $50/kWh.

This is amazing progress. First out in $25K Model 2 in 3 years? I think that'll be the Berlin car. Shanghai or a new plant in China would be the logical place to build the Model 1 "World Car".

Cheers!

A Model 2 Performance would be a fun car.

 

[zecar]

If you want to heat your house (in Upstate NY) without burning oil or gas, is there any other option? Wait for Tesla HVAC?

(This is a serious question, I'm not disagreeing with your post.)

Your going to need a ground source heat pump when it's really cold to avoid using resistance heating in the depth of winter AFAIK.

 

[ZachF]

View attachment 591241
Goldman Sachs also raised pt to $400.

I imagine the airheaded WS types who sold on the news consulted some technical experts who told them, "This is big stuff guys"

 

[vikings123]

Some analyst actions this morning

1. GS raises price target to 400
2. Deutsche Bank upgrades Tesla to Buy raises PT to $500
3. CANACCORD lowers price target from 442 to 377
4. Oppenheimer raises PT to 451
5. Morgan Stanley reiterates price target of 272
6. Baird increases PT to 360.

So yeah basically they are all over the place but mostly positive.

 

[mickificki]

 

[ZachF]

This may be a stupid question, but can you show how that math works (in a simple way)? I would not know where to start.

$50/KWh at the pack level with 3000+ cycles means it costs about two cents to store a KWh of electricity.

Solar and wind are already printing levelized costs of ~2 cents per KWh to produce.

The O&M + Fuel costs for gas and nuclear are about 2.5 cents and 3-3.5 cents for coal. This is just to run an already existing plant. There is no scenario where 2 cent solar production costs and 2 cent storage doesn't sweep through the utility sector like the Cali wildfires.

(note these are US numbers, the differ somewhat in other countries but the punchline remains)

 

[mongo]

But why does it look like the shingles are only on the outside of the rolled up can? Wouldn't they spiral inwards all the way? Or am I not understanding what I'm looking at?

The outer shingles are overlapping the inner shingles, so you only see the edge (like a roof without a ridge)

IIRC, during the presentation they stated the electrical path was reduced from 250 mm to 50 mm or 5X.

A lot of the advances can be applied independently. They could potentially make tabless 2170s with the current chemistry.
The 250mm on a 2170 is the average distance. 1 m electrode, tab at 0.5 m, 0.5 on either side, average distance 0.25.

 

[zecar]

The structural pack slides seems to be using Model Y as illustrations, so that means the plan for new cells are not just for CyberTruck and Semi.

This makes me think the reason why Elon jumps in to say the dry tech is not “mass production” ready for a year, is to avoid Osborne Model Y, it doesn’t necessarily mean there is any uncertainty in getting it polished and ready when time comes.

So the 1-year timeline give people the impression that it would come to Model Y only after the Giga Berlin version, no reason to wait now.
So, I am expecting sometime from now till next September they would announce the new cell line is producing at full capacity over night, no real ramping, rather a step change.

I mean you either get the yield high enough or still too low, no need to produce more than test batches before that, and no reason to produce at lower throughput after, right?

Ok now I am spreading a theory that could Osborne Model Y, I will show myself out.

Berlin Y production is now very confusing. I don't know how to reconcile the battery day information with Q1/2 2021 Berlin production. I do think the stamped structure will be used before the new pack is available.

The Berlin plan B may be to supply Y to Europe from Fremont and China if the local ramp is slow.

A lower range Cybertruck could also be build with 2170 tech. I'm sure Tesla has multiple possible tech paths planned depending on how the new processes mature.

I'm also sure that there is a high cycle battery in development for the semi and storage. Battery day was about making batteries. I think Musk felt he said plenty. Retail oriented product focused listeners seem to mostly disagree.

 

[ZachF]

The question I have is: are cheaper batteries necessary at all if FSD is solved?

If you want those robotaxis to be solar powered...?
yes.