Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

That’s because this forum is pretty much an echo chamber. It should be renamed:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 TSLA LONG Investors' OPTIMISTIC Roundtable (Bears, Shorts, and Realistic Expectations Not Welcome Here)



Joking. Kind of.

cha Ching cha Ching
Are the echoes I keep hearing

 

[printf42]

in a few years, Tesla will have about 5M cars on the road that are paying $10/mo for the premium connectivity. That's $50M/mo pure profit that will continue to grow with the fleet, plus whatever other services they can add (eg music, apps). They will easily be making $1B/yr in profit just from services like that by 2025.

And that’s before they sell songs in caraoke.

 

[Boomer19]

I used www.stockpile.com to gift my nephew TSLA on his birthday. They basically create a custodial IRA and your gift is a gift certificate for a specific stock (with fractional shares). It worked out great because I bought the cert when TSLA was $700 and it got redeemed in March at $400.


I'm lucky as I have several co-workers who own Teslas and several others who are TSLA owners.

that’s a cool idea.
i did UGMA accts at IB for my nephews

and same to the circles i run with. a couple of my close work buddies were huge into tesla and got me hooked. unfortunately i didn’t have the scratch at the time they got in. they are now worth roughly 20 and 40mm in tsla alone

while i’m nowhere near that, not even a solid fraction, who’s complaining! if it wasn’t for them and their guts, along with informative crowds like tmc, life would be much more a grind right now!

and as i said, maybe most importantly to me, it allowed me to pass the knowledge to teenage nephews, along with a few shares each to start them out...hoping to do more in the future!

 

[JRP3]

Dry electrode. This is not needed for ranged increases. All this does is reduce the cost, drastically reduces the factory footprint and spits out cells faster.

It should help with greater energy density/range. Solvent takes up space.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I know! I know! Let’s have another debate about Tesla advertising!

View attachment 591989

This looks like a very close vote. I demand a recount!

I sincerely hope I don't need a /s for this...

 

[kbM3]

I still think it'll be a new vehicle as Elon (I think) has mentioned that even the Model 3 is bigger than the average sedan in Europe? That plus the range advantage of a smaller vehicle (drag is quadratic, yes?). So even a slightly thinner/shorter vehicle could get by on a lot less battery. PLUS the battery day slide showing the new vehicle labeled it as 'compact/robotaxi' which makes me think they might make some adjustments that make it even better as a robotaxi.

Edit: Could see Model 3 dropping below $35k though, to bridge the gap!

Counterintuitively a shorter car has worse drag. The most efficient cars on the highway are not the tiny ones like the Smart car, but longer ones. IIRC Even the regular Prius got better highway mileage than the small one.

They could beat Model 3’s efficiency by making it narrower and less tall, but shorter length might hurt.

 

[dww12]

They are tying rebar at 15:16.

 

[Navin]

OT - is there anyway to stop the pop-ups on this website asking for personal email besides signing in?

 

[dhanson865]

The question is how will that look after battery day? How long after battery day will it take for a 3 year old Model 3 to drop in price enough to change that chart noticeably?

If they do drop in price after battery day it'll change the used car market. If they don't it'll just push more new sales.

On the topic of 3 year old Model 3s, what trims could that be at this point. Nothing but LR RWD?

* LR RWD July 2017 – November 2018 and March 2019 – June 2019, the first run can be 3 years old.
* AWD didn't start until July 2018 so won't be 3 years old until next year.
* Performance didn't start until July 2018 so won't be 3 years old until next year.
* LEMR for Limited Edition Mid Range is October 2018 – March 2019 so won't be 3 years old until next year. (probably be valued the same as a on older SR+ in the long run)
* SR/SR+ didn't start until March 2019 so won't be 3 years old until 2022.


new prices archive before battery day, all cars Blue with no FSD, no "savings", Excluding taxes and fees, rounded to the next thousand dollars. Just so I can easily configure and compare after changes come.

~$39,000 new 2020 SR+ Model 3
~$47,000 new 2020 AWD Model 3
~$51,000 new 2020 AWD Model Y

OK so it's post battery day and the new car pricing and specs did not change. (I was wrong, I expected a change)

So I've been on the fence bout buying a Tesla since 2018 (with much desire to join the club since the early S60 days back in 2012) a big chunk of what I've been waiting on that I didn't think would take this long to happen is for this void to be filled

There isn't a service center or store within 200 miles of me unless I have an aircraft to fly there and back. As the crow flies Atlanta, Nashville, and even Charlotte are all under 200 miles from my house. But in terms of driving over mountains or plateaus it becomes more challenging to just hop in a car and drive there (distance, time, and charging). Heaven forbid they try to give me a gas car loaner or uber credits. I just don't have faith that in the life of a new car warranty I won't need to get my car to the service center. And I don't want to have to stay in a hotel for the time of the repairs/upgrades or to have to make two long range trips to swap cars.

How big of a company does TSLA have to be before they put something in the center of this gap?

a lesser issue but still high on my hesitate to buy it reasons list is the lack of a heated steering wheel. I can grab a used 2012 Leaf for under $5k that has a heated steering wheel but I can't get a Model 3 at any price with one.


Anyway if I put an order in TSLA wants me to drive to Nashville to pick it up. Two people that worked in the same office building with me have already made that trip but they live closer to Nashville than I do.

So what's the catalyst that will push TSLA into opening more service centers. Do I have to wait for the TX factory to open before they expand stores/service centers again in the US? Or do you think TSLA will leave this gap for the foreseeable future?

 

[BornToFly]

Robinhood gave me a margin call, the second time I've ever had one. I had to sell one share so then I could have the $ to buy back some soon to be expired this Friday puts on some SPWR to clear up some $$.

Next time try buying some really cheap OTM puts, like 200 strike, to make the margin call go away.

 

[SPadival]

I know! I know! Let’s have another debate about Tesla advertising!

View attachment 591989

@tinm will be pleased with the result

 

[Robocop]

Out of curiosity, made a poll asking when the $25,000 compact vehicle will be unveiled (not necessarily delivered, just our first real look). Poll: $25,000 Model "2" Unveil (Compact)

 

[mejojo]

View attachment 592063 View attachment 592063 Let’s try this again:

Fuchies r up

You got juice in the spanker?

 

[Big Time]

You got juice in the spanker?

Ahh *sugar* I left the house today (felt good to ignore the ticker) came back damn things where just spanking away.

going to try the same tmrw!

check this out!
First steel in Austin placed

 

[gabeincal]

in a few years, Tesla will have about 5M cars on the road that are paying $10/mo for the premium connectivity. That's $50M/mo pure profit that will continue to grow with the fleet, plus whatever other services they can add (eg music, apps). They will easily be making $1B/yr in profit just from services like that by 2025.

Sorry for being ignorant but surely that is not just pure profits as Tesla pays to a cell provider for all those subscriber lines...?

 

[Tim S]

I have been wondering the same thing...I want to buy a model y but the nearest service center is 1.5 hrs away. The nearest Tesla “store” to even test drive/see a Tesla and take a delivery is over 4 hrs away.

Search Facebook for the Central NY Pure EV Drivers group. You can probably find someone there who will let you test drive their Tesla.

Also, Teslas rarely need service, and Tesla will send mobile service for many issues. They came to my workplace to rotate my tires.

I've had my Model 3 for over 2 years and I've been to the local service center twice... to replace a cracked windshield and to get my FSD computer. I went to Jiffy Lube for a state inspection and Monro for new tires.

 

[lafrisbee]

As an investor and backer of the mission, if I could know the answer to the following I would know all I need to know. If all these end up in my status 4, well, game over. The rest is almost irrelevant.

For each of the following technology advancement announced on battery day assign from the following statuses:
1. Still some science to work out.
2. All down to the engineering now.
3. Working well in pilot.
4. Working at full throttle in production.

Advancement:
1. Tabless Cell
2. Dry Electrode
3. Continuous Motion Manufacturing
4. Silicon anode (and the ion-conducing polymer)
5. High Nickel Cathode ('with novel dopants and coatings')
6. Raw metal Nickle power as input.
7. Lithium generation through salt extraction
8. Front and rear casting
9. Module-less pack integrated as a structural element

These 9 items should be tracked and asked about every quarter.

Finally, for the folks worrying about interior refreshes and the like clearly (to me) Tesla is laser focused on 3 things. The vast majority of innovative energy is being poured into these.
1. New battery (chemistry and manufacturing)
2. Autonomy
3. Automotive manufacturing efficiency / driving out cost

Seeing Elon and Drew on stage excitedly giggling about the tech (and each others lame jokes) reinforces that this company is foremost led by engineers who are relentlessly into solving these problems. This will win.

I am not really going to respond to the above Message. I just wanted to steal it to back-up what I am going to say about the whole Battery day "thing."
before I get to that though.... How can I not mention that I felt like Battery Day was postponed over and over again for two different reasons... First was that the discoveries they found were being integrated into a pilot scenario fairly well so those in charge felt that they could discuss an almost working line, and when it wasn't being resolved on their time schedule they rescheduled Battery Day. My "proof" is in the fact that the people that did go had to sit in cars, So the whole "this needs to be live and seen" excuse never materialized. The second less bearish reason I feel Battery Day was delayed several times was that progress on the engineering front was occurring on several fronts (see message I've quoted above.).
Now to the other slightly negative thoughts I have about battery day....
Go look at all the Shitgar they showed us in what, an hour? It felt like I was truly getting overwhelmed by an infomercial about some microwave, stove-top, convection oven, dishwasher.
If a third of what they had was revealed I would have been pretty damn amazed. As it is I started wondering WTF are they thinking. And then they glossed over huge technology gains to hurry on to the next thing... Whenever any promoter does that scenario we ALL become critical... but not with Elon? It is so hard not to...
Especially when so much of what they told was dealing with chemistry that is so good, but we don't have anything really working yet....

So, Tons of "GREAT STUFF".... coming. I was surprised the floor didn't drop out from under us... i really woke up Wednesday believing it was going to be a $100/share loss kind of day. I even expected the rest of the $100 down movement to continue today...
But then MAX pain is tomorrow...we are all ants in an ant farm owned by our MaxPain Child.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Option IV has dropped to 98%. Took a look at March 2021 straddles of buying a $400 strike call and a $400 strike put and it would cost about $18,275. The last time I made a similar trade betting that volatility would increase the IV was in the 80's and when IV increased shortly after above 110 both calls and puts increased in value.

With q3 P&D next week I anticipate IV will likely increase making this a decent trade. With this option straddle being about six months out you have Q3, Q4, elections, and sp500 events that should result in higher IV/volatility.

Personally I'm going to chew on this tomorrow and haven't decided if I want to initiate this trade. Also IV percentile is at 42% meaning we've had IV at this level or lower 42% of the time in the last twelve months versus higher IV and higher premiums 58% of the time.

 

[dww12]

I am not really going to respond to the above Message. I just wanted to steal it to back-up what I am going to say about the whole Battery day "thing."
before I get to that though.... How can I not mention that I felt like Battery Day was postponed over and over again for two different reasons... First was that the discoveries they found were being integrated into a pilot scenario fairly well so those in charge felt that they could discuss an almost working line, and when it wasn't being resolved on their time schedule they rescheduled Battery Day. My "proof" is in the fact that the people that did go had to sit in cars, So the whole "this needs to be live and seen" excuse never materialized. The second less bearish reason I feel Battery Day was delayed several times was that progress on the engineering front was occurring on several fronts (see message I've quoted above.).
Now to the other slightly negative thoughts I have about battery day....
Go look at all the Shitgar they showed us in what, an hour? It felt like I was truly getting overwhelmed by an infomercial about some microwave, stove-top, convection oven, dishwasher.
If a third of what they had was revealed I would have been pretty damn amazed. As it is I started wondering WTF are they thinking. And then they glossed over huge technology gains to hurry on to the next thing... Whenever any promoter does that scenario we ALL become critical... but not with Elon? It is so hard not to...
Especially when so much of what they told was dealing with chemistry that is so good, but we don't have anything really working yet....

So, Tons of "GREAT STUFF".... coming. I was surprised the floor didn't drop out from under us... i really woke up Wednesday believing it was going to be a $100/share loss kind of day. I even expected the rest of the $100 down movement to continue today...
But then MAX pain is tomorrow...we are all ants in an ant farm owned by our MaxPain Child.

Gali went on the tour. The “big” investors just aren’t telling you about it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla is Building the World’s Biggest Factories + California to Ban ICE Vehicles by 2035" | Tesla Daily (45 min ago)