Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

@Fact Checking (or anybody else) What are your thoughts on the Osborne effect re MY on M3. I think we discussed this earlier, and we agreed reveal should be summer/fall, 3-6 months before production. My thinking is that the Osborne effect will be somewhat ameliorated by introduction of the base M3, as well as the winding down of the tax credit, and the higher price of the MY. The question is by how much?

 

[Freder Reeve]

I expect a typical TSLA pop and fade tomorrow. Get to $308 or so and then close at $301.

i pick opening at 304 closing at 316

 

[Zaxxon]

Do we have a comparable figures between the S & X to see what Elon might be suggesting? I think we are looking at the same jump.

We do:
S: 86.2x196
X: 89.4x198.3
+3.7% , +1.2%

3: 73x185
Applying the same increase as S --> X is:
Y:75.7x187.2

But the S is already a boat, so I would expect a greater percentage increase from 3 to Y.

 

[wipster]

I agree. I was just spitballing. Interestingly, to reach the W/L figures of medium 3-row SUVs only requires about 5% greater W/L. I would bet that's what we'll see.

When we find out on 3.14, we'll all enjoy with some fresh Tesla pie!

(I was going to say Y pie, then I thought better about it... I'll stick with pumpkin or sweet potato)

 

[Fact Checking]

Correction: a terrible chill has just blown through the C-suite chambers of Munich, Stuttgart, Ingolstadt, Wolfsburg, Detroit, Dearborn, Auburn Hills, Göteborg, Tokyo, Turin, Seoul, Yokohama, Paris, Hamamatsu, Fuchū and Whitley.

Don’t forget New York, London and Frankfurt

Also Chicago, Greenwich (CT), Boston, Hong Kong, Zürich and Geneva, right?

 

[Zaxxon]

When we find out on 3.14, we'll all enjoy with some fresh Tesla pie!

(I was going to say Y pie, then I thought better about it... I'll stick with pumpkin or sweet potato)

Reveal on pi day. Deliveries start 4/20?

 

[mongo]

@Fact Checking What are your thoughts on the Osborne effect re MY on M3. I think we discussed this earlier, and we agreed reveal should be summer/fall, 3-6 months before production. My thinking is that the Osborne effect will be somewhat ameliorated by introduction of the base M3, as well as the winding down of the tax credit, and the higher price of the MY. The question is by how much?

Not FC, but people who need a commuting car (good milage, cost a factor) versus people who need an SUV (3 kids or towing) will pick the one that works for them. So minimal Osborne. Especially since Tesla fans knew the Y was coming. The reveal may even cause some to go with the 3 instead since there is no mystery anymore.

 

[Fact Checking]

I will take the middle ground, being an engineer at heart, when Elon talk about a car being bigger he’s always talking about the cross section area, which directly correlates to drag and efficiency.

So, I will say 5% taller and wider, unknown length since that doesn’t matter.(arguably longer could be better, to control turbulence)

But note that in terms of air resistance more length is almost for "free" (a bit more parasitic drag), so making the Y longer would be desirable, cheap and increase utility (potential 3rd row) immensely.

 

[Etna]

So we expecting this to be BMW X1 size or X3 size?

X5 as a minimum because the Model 3 matches exactly the width of the X5 (1.93 m or 76 inches) and is just 7 inches shorter whereas a 10% increase would make it 11 inches longer than the X5.

 

[AlexS]

Detailed specs & pricing will be provided, as well as test rides in Y
Elon Musk on Twitter


wait what? He just said last week that test drives are not needed anymore and now he says they will have some on Y event.

 

[2virgule5]

I will be extremely happy (and paper richer) if this starts a long expected/talked about short squeeze/capitulation but I have been around Tesla/TSLA too long to believe that Monday will definitely be a 'green' day.

Don't count your TSLA pops before they happen

I would too, which means that I'm mostly prepping for the exact opposite

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 382682
Detailed specs & pricing will be provided, as well as test rides in Y
Elon Musk on Twitter

wait what? He just said last week that test drives are not needed anymore and now he says they will have some on Y event.

It's Elon's Model Y.

Test rides offered by owners are still very much recommended!

 

[azaz]

X5 as a minimum because the Model 3 matches exactly the width of the X5 (1.93 m or 76 inches) and is just 7 inches shorter whereas a 10% increase would make it 11 inches longer than the X5.

The model 3 is a 3 series competitor tho.

 

[mongo]

But note that in terms of air resistance length is almost for "free" (a bit more parasitic drag), so making the Y longer would be desirable, cheap and increase utility (potential 3rd row) immensely.

3 row was called out in leaked docs:
Leaked documents reveal Tesla had an aggressive production ramp for its Model Y — but the company says that its plans have changed

 

[Freder Reeve]

View attachment 382682
wait what? He just said last week that test drives are not needed anymore and now he says they will have some on Y event.

Well ya you miss the most important part of exchange where guy asks if video allowed in car during test drives and elon says 'ya record away' or what have you... these test drives are technically marketing events trickling over youtube channels.

 

[S3XY]

I think the timing of the latest demand lever pulls is no coincidence with the bond repayment. They seem to be strategic moves to ensure Tesla's cash position remains healthy after the bond repayment.

1. All those new Model 3s orders all start with a $2500 deposit.
2. Tesla announced availability of FSD (Including HW3 upgrade) to existing EAP purchasers for $2000.
3. Now we see Model Y reveal coming. I know some speculated Tesla won't take deposits. I think they will.

I know the consensus here is that Tesla has plenty of cash as evidenced by their Q4 update letter: There they stated they had $3.685B in cash. (http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/0b913415-467d-4c0d-be4c-9225c2cb0ae0)

But consider that the Q4 earnings represent a snapshot taken at a time when inventories are as optimized as possible. Shortly after Q4 they started producing cars for Europe and China. If they had 25k Model 3s in transit/inventory between those on ships/and in the US waiting to be delivered then at a 40k cost per unit that would be 1B dollars in working capital.

So 3.685 - 920 - 1000 means Tesla could be down to 1.765 B in working capital right now. That's a little less than half what the Q4 report snapshot showed.

I'm also still smarting from the store closure announcement and I think it's related to the capital issue. I'm probably sounding like a broken record now but I feel like Tesla should have raised capital earlier when they had the chance instead. That would he given them the leeway for instance to offer the 35k Model 3 without such draconian cuts that I think will be a drag in their efforts to reach a new customer base.

Edit: ok my math is overly simplistic. My point was that Tesla needs working capital and that the Q4 snapshot is just that.

Thanks @Fact Checking for your thoughtful reply

I'm almost certain they'll take deposits. What better way to get a reliable head count for production projections than asking people to put money down on it?

 

[Fact Checking]

The model 3 is a 3 series competitor tho.

With the Model 3 size was important, to get them into European cities with narrow streets and small parking spaces.

With the Model Y I think the focus is primarily on increasing affordability via mass production, they'll make it as big as possible to move it into a U.S. CSUV and European SUV category and sweet spot, while still using the Model 3 battery packs.

I.e. easily X5 size, and high end Model Y trims will give the BMW X5 a run for its money.

 

[ZsoZso]

So Model Y reveal on March 14th after market close. What does it mean for SP ?
Based on typical reactions by market in the past for big positive news, I would say:
1. SP going up from tomorrow upto March 14th closing bell (first slowly with lots of volatility pull-back,
more sharply and steadily on the last 2 market days)
2. SP crash / big dip starting after-market hours and continued on steroids the next day on March 15th

of course, this is just my delusional guess...
Mandatory: Not and advice!

 

[Alphacrux]

Am I weird that I'm actually more excited about finally seeing Supercharger V3. Any speculation on where this mystery 1st one will be.

Fremont?

 

[Etna]

The model 3 is a 3 series competitor tho.

True, and the Model Y will most likely compete against the X5 in terms of interior volume and performance specs. The X5 base price starts at $60,700 in the US or about $20,000 more than the Model Y. "Ingolstadt we have a problem".