Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PhaseWhite]

This may work better than we think:

Twitter

And if it does, the dealership model is in even more trouble.

Yes! So glad someone got his attention with this idea on Twitter. This could create exploding demand if done right. Sign me up.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon just reiterated Tesla Truck unveil later in the year....

Rivian I'm looking @ you!

Elon continues to downplay the mass appeal of his pickup truck. I think Rivian has nothing to worry about. They’ll sell their 20,000 production run fairly easily.

 

[EVNow]

What do you guys think will be the market reaction - both immediately tomorrow (and next week) and after 14th ?

For context - Model 3 reveal on April 1, 2016 - SP went up about $35 over 4 days, from $230 to $265 - only to fall back to $210 three days later (assuming because of ER).

 

[capster]

Also Chicago, Greenwich (CT), Boston, Hong Kong, Zürich and Geneva, right?

Right! And, let’s not leave out the f..., er, folks in Houston, Riyadh, Moscow, Tehran, Edmonton, and so on.

It is such a multifarious chill, it warms the cockles of one’s heart!

 

[printf42]

The model 3 is a 3 series competitor tho.

Not really, I have not measured, but judging from some dimension drawings I got, Model 3 and BMW 5 have roughly the same distance from steering wheel to rear seat back. Translates to probably about the same interior space, which would be noticeably larger than BMW 3 series.

Also BMW 3 series doesn’t have double wishbone front suspension which both Model 3 and 5 series have.

In my opinion, Model 3 is comparable to BMW 5 series and Benz E series. Which is probably why Elon wants to name it Model E in the beginning(before being shot down by Ford who owns the trademark)

Btw, any 5 and 3 series owner here mind to massure that distance?
Model 3 measures from 61 to 63.5 inch depending on steering wheel position adjustment.
(I measured from the top of the steering wheel to the seat back of the rear, around shoulder height)

 

[capster]

What do you guys think will be the market reaction - both immediately tomorrow (and next week) and after 14th ?

For context - Model 3 reveal on April 1, 2016 - SP went up about $35 over 4 days, from $230 to $265 - only to fall back to $210 three days later (assuming because of ER).

Either we’ll be green tomorrow or we’ll have a Drama Dip(TM) and then be green.

Just a guess. Not any advice.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon continues to downplay the mass appeal of his pickup truck. I think Rivian has nothing to worry about. They’ll sell their 20,000 production run fairly easily.

If they can keep the price targets and the manufacturing schedule without any ramp up "hell" then there's nothing for Rivian to worry about: both the #1 and the #2 EV pickup truck is going to sell like hotcakes, taking market share from F-250 and Dodge Ram sales, not each other.

 

[Navin]

What do you guys think will be the market reaction - both immediately tomorrow (and next week) and after 14th ?

For context - Model 3 reveal on April 1, 2016 - SP went up about $35 over 4 days, from $230 to $265 - only to fall back to $210 three days later (assuming because of ER).

Up up down down left right left right

 

[defc0n]

Loved attacking those in Tie Fighter cause they were so easy to kill

 

[BornToFly]

What do you guys think will be the market reaction - both immediately tomorrow (and next week) and after 14th ?

For context - Model 3 reveal on April 1, 2016 - SP went up about $35 over 4 days, from $230 to $265 - only to fall back to $210 three days later (assuming because of ER).

I am going to sell Puts/Calls with the assumption that the SP goes up before the event, and then down the next day. But I seem to be wrong a lot....

 

[hacer]

35k + 10% = 38.5k
Way too low, hopefully wont hurt model 3 sales

Given the lowered range from the SUV format I think they won't offer any battery smaller than the 3's MR for the Y because it would be too short a range for the Tesla brand. Therefore starting price will be $44k.

 

[ZachF]

Elon continues to downplay the mass appeal of his pickup truck. I think Rivian has nothing to worry about. They’ll sell their 20,000 production run fairly easily.

There is plenty of ICE cake for both Tesla and Rivian to eat from right now.

 

[elasalle]

Part 1: thoughts before MY, V3 reveal.



.Euro/China deliveries

Upper bounds should be ~40-45K (13-15 ships at 3K rate). So unless no one is buying, those targets should be hit.



.Store Closing

.Should provide some way for some of staff to train and transfer to other opportunities. NC, Tampa etc I believe have some sort of Community Courses coming up.

.store also moved to Amazon for other goods

.Dealerships - Social, Sales and Services. The Social part included the test drives. Test drives could easily be provided by Services. Also from Superchargers with staff.

. With CarMax, Carvana - dealership model was being challenged even for traditional ICE (though mostly for resale cars) - but not too much of a stretch for new vehicle sales. Caravan and Kndi also seem to have like Car ATMs.

.Challenge I think is now for Solar? What is Tesla gonna do?



.Cash Balance.

.With Bond payback and longer time for vehicles in transit, cash balance must have been going down, but biggest cash needs are for China GF, and for that they got 2B. I am sure this will cover not just factory cost, but also cost for stamping press, robots, Grohmann lines etc. so this must be covered.





.Advertising

. Tesla should advertise online. It’s really cheap. Just like we see BMW, Honda sales on TMC. Tesla Ads should be able to reach folks searching online for purchasing cars.

.If ADs on TV, lets choose CNBC (art of war philosophy)



In general,Stressed of SP going down further to like 270 range



Part 2: thoughts after My, V3 reveal.



. It was great M3 SR was released before MY reveal. Promise of 35K was kept.



.Kindergarden math - 3 models - SP in 300s. 4 models - SP in 400 range

 

[pz1975]

I am going to sell Puts/Calls with the assumption that the SP goes up before the event, and then down the next day. But I seem to be wrong a lot....

I do this for every high IV event (earnings reports, reveals like last week) - works like a charm and free $. IV crush the next day devalues the OTM calls and puts so much. I always sell the options 10-20% OTM.

 

[Cattledog]

10% larger probably doesn't apply to each dimension. I would think it would more than likely apply to the overall volume of the vehicle. I can definitely see it being a bit taller and a bit longer, but 10% in all three dimensions would make it huge.

1.1*1.1*1.1 = 1.331 volumetrically. Not gonna happen. But 10% larger volumetrically, that's happening. I dunno, maybe 190" long, 76" wide, several inches taller than 3.

 

[Krugerrand]

During the past two years, I've yet to run into anyone who hasn't heard of Tesla. There are plenty who have never seen one, sat in one, or knew how cool they are, but everyone I've met (for example at shopping malls where I've shown the car) knows the name. Six years ago it was a different story.

I was in Romania last fall. Everyone I talked to had heard of Tesla even though I didn’t see one.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think there is potentially a growing mythology here that closing the stores equates to a cost savings of 6% of the price of these vehicles. That's not the direct trade-off. The quote is:



The majority of the price cut is going to come straight out of unit profitability as Tesla makes a play for demand elasticity.

You have no idea what the breakdown is for savings so don’t pretend you do and state it as fact.

 

[Krugerrand]

Morale certainly is not a static state, I do not believe I presented it as such. Tesla laid off a large number of people with a letter saying they were doing it so they would never have to do it again. Then much to the surprise of all of us here at TMC they did it again and again in fairly rapid succession. Yes clearly galleria staff are presently the most anxious for good reason.

When I was in freemont a month or so ago I had a great convo with a gentleman that works on the model 3 line. He said he felt badly for his friends that were laid off because they were all rockstars. But when he looked around he felt his entire team were rockstars, so it’s a tough call. He also admitted that he felt there were many redundant positions and a lot of bloat. He was very understanding, but still expresses reasonable concern about his job moving forward.

Telling your people you are laying some of them off isn’t a morale booster. Telling them you are doing so to ensure you will never have to do it again and then laying them off several more times is naturally going to make people uneasy. I’ve always respected your posts krugerrand, however, I don’t believe it’s a sin to say that today is a bit overcast when there are clouds in the sky.

Fair enough.

 

[KarenRei]

Loved attacking those in Tie Fighter cause they were so easy to kill

Good memories! Loved that game. Always loved games in general where you played for the "bad team" (for example, Dungeon Keeper).

 

[RFernatt]

When we find out on 3.14, we'll all enjoy with some fresh Tesla pie!

(I was going to say Y pie, then I thought better about it... I'll stick with pumpkin or sweet potato)

I would prefer humble pie for a select few...