Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
But don’t forget, this rate of return is not based on HODL. They are an actively managed fund, meaning they will sell high and buy back low. For ordinary retail investors, no way to achieve 45% unless putting the same amount of effort, with access to the same financial modeling & trading tools, plus similar years of experience in trading TSLA as ARK Invest has.
If you watched what she said & came away with this interpretation, then what you mention could apply. I heard it differently.

Maybe my phrasing fell short of conveying her delivery. At the time she was speaking about ARK’s overall thesis for Square (as she had just done for Tesla, which is where the interview started), characterizing ARK’s view of Square delivering a 30% annual rate of return over the next 5 years. In my view, she wasn’t speaking to ARK’s portfolio. Then she said that she sees Tesla’s annual rate of return over the next 5 years as 45%.
 
If you watched what she said & came away with this interpretation, then what you mention could apply. I heard it differently.

Maybe my phrasing fell short of conveying her delivery. At the time she was speaking about ARK’s overall thesis for Square (as she had just done for Tesla, which is where the interview started), characterizing ARK’s view of Square delivering a 30% annual rate of return over the next 5 years. In my view, she wasn’t speaking to ARK’s portfolio. Then she said that she sees Tesla’s annual rate of return over the next 5 years as 45%.
There is no way for her to quantify what she may or not make by trading, in the future. She has to mean HODL.
 
But don’t forget, this rate of return is not based on HODL. They are an actively managed fund, meaning they will sell high and buy back low. For ordinary retail investors, no way to achieve 45% unless putting the same amount of effort, with access to the same financial modeling & trading tools, plus similar years of experience in trading TSLA as ARK Invest has.
I don’t believe that's how they generally operate. They move stocks in and out of the funds based on what their analysts think the long-term growth prospects are compared with competitors. They don’t day-trade them. That’s how they got stocks like TSLA and SQ to bubble to the top, Yes if a particular stock has exceeded 10% of a particular fund, they would look at opportune times to sell a bit, but I doubt that’s the primary motivation.
 
But don’t forget, this rate of return is not based on HODL. They are an actively managed fund, meaning they will sell high and buy back low. For ordinary retail investors, no way to achieve 45% unless putting the same amount of effort, with access to the same financial modeling & trading tools, plus similar years of experience in trading TSLA as ARK Invest has.
It's absolutely based on Hodl or else anyone can get a 45% return on anything if it's manipulated often. Hell I can get a 450% return on Nikola if I time everything correctly.
 
The "Temporary Switchyard" might be a key milestone at Austin, they may elect to light up the site and run extended hours.
Something like 2 X 8 hour shifts is worth exploring...overall something like 5am to 9pm.
If they do that, and combine it with prefab construction as per Berlin, it may be a very rapid build...

The other reasons I explored earlier, removing the existing power lines and demolishing the MM, facilities, but maintaining power to the construction offices.

Overall onsite electricity is s big advantage... I did wonder about the reasons for the "Temporary Switchyard", but it is starting to make perfect sense.

It is great to see well thought out, well executed, construction projects...
 
Last edited:
Well, the building plans in Germany is still not approved. I don't think anyone ever said it would be much difference in speed once they started building. As you have all seen northern Europe is pretty good at prefab.

Any smaller project not creating thousands of jobs would likely not have been allowed to even start building without the permits done. The politicians wouldn't have risked it. Because of huge number of potential jobs Tesla got the chance but even so I can't see any other company could have started because without a position like Elons at Tesla. No other CEO would have risked to lose hundreds of millions to restore everything if needed. Without 50% growth a year there wouldn't even be the need to.

Without Elon as a both one of the most powerful CEOs and by far largest owner being able to decide taking that risk the German site would still at best be flat ground. Another great foresight from Elon being able to recognize this.

I think there is close to zero risk Tesla will run into trouble with building before permits, possibly they'll be forced to a few small and cheap changes to make it look better for the government vs the environmentalists and nimbys.

But yeah, Tesla is 'gambling' a huge sum that could be needed for restoration of the land, never mind the loss of production, against the very slim risk of running into a building stop. It would be a disaster if that happened but I think the risk is like 1 in 1000 or something and worth taking. Apparently so did Elon and the board.

Actually, yes they did say it was going to be a VERY slow build. Go back and reread all the posts. And the very fact building is going on without all the permits so as not to hold up the build of the factory; thanks for making my point.
 
Live interview with Rob Maurer and Pierre Ferragu.


Cool interview, but in my opinion his understanding of the future Mobility as a Service market is very poor. He doesn't see an easy path for Tesla to launch a ride-hailing service, whereas he thinks Uber is undervalued and very well positioned with its platform.

I wonder if he's ever fundamentally thought about what's needed to operate an autonomous mobility as a service platform:
  1. Platform.
  2. Cheap EVs with low TCO.
  3. FSD system.
  4. Servicing infrastructure.
  5. Charging infrastructure.
  6. Insurance.
  7. In-car entertainment.
Uber and others like Lyft, Grab, etc. might be ahead of Tesla in #1 (although Tesla is already iterating on a Tesla Network app), Tesla is far ahead of ride-hailing companies in #2 through #7, and it should be far easier for Tesla to develop and catch up in #1 than it will be for the others to catch up with Tesla in most of the others.
 
Isn’t it the Q3 rumour buildup?
Nope. Not really. If it were it would be a slow walk up during hours instead of spiking then being walked down through out the day. And as I have theorized before, The MM's have a very good understanding of the direction of the stock (and that is why this kind of manipulation doesn't really piss me off more), and the MM's let the stock rise and fall, they just "help" themselves to where it has to be. And they also do manipulate it to the point of putting off algos and the casual buyer, as well as sometimes boosting it to get more interested in it before they do their end game. Often I've seen it rise for no reason at all to a considerable level so that those inclined to buy calls will go ahead and try their hand. Only to see the stock tumble back down and stay there the rest of the week.
I can figure out what Tesla is doing and where it is going. I can't have any idea what the MM's are thinking each week because the MM's sole objective is to fool me into making a wrong move...whether it is to buy or sell, or buy calls or puts, or to set a sell order. The MM's aren't playing the stock. They are playing the people....AND the stock.
 
But don’t forget, this rate of return is not based on HODL. They are an actively managed fund, meaning they will sell high and buy back low. For ordinary retail investors, no way to achieve 45% unless putting the same amount of effort, with access to the same financial modeling & trading tools, plus similar years of experience in trading TSLA as ARK Invest has.

While I didn't listen in, it would be very unusual for Someone like Cathie Wood to estimate returns than included their trading performance. Very unusual. She was almost certainly analyzing the expected performance of the stock - not her trading desk.

And why do you think "ordinary retail investors" couldn't see a 45% average annual return over 5 years by buying and holding a stock like TSLA? o_O
 
China September
upload_2020-10-12_20-50-37.png