Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

China September
View attachment 597949

Yes, good production result with the factory closed for 10 days... only 4% lower than the previous month....

Sales might be some customers waiting for the new LFP version.

 

[Thekiwi]

SpaceX Limited Series In Works At HBO From ‘Star Trek: Beyond’ Scribe Doug Jung – Deadline

HBO limited series on Musk and SpaceX based on Ashlee Vance's book.

excellent!

They should probably cast Chris Coy as Musk - he is around the right age and looks the part (and can act).

 

[ZeApelido]

At least Elon is finally more realistic about FSD

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1315805485027651584?s=20

 

[Singuy]

At least Elon is finally more realistic about FSD

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1315805485027651584?s=20

View attachment 597950

Hey hey, I thought he said last year during the conference call there was a non zero chance of success.

 

[Green Pete]

I'm sorry if this has been brought up before. But who here DOESNT think Tesla has a team working on solid state battery tech. I mean I feel fairly confident they do, or some of their engineers spend x amount of time on it. I'd be disappointed if they dont to be honest. Not because I believe in solid state batteries but because I believe Tesla will always make sure it's got 5 possible paths to a breakthrough in R and D at any time, whereas every other auto company is waiting for a supplier to make a a breakthrough.

edit: reemphasis of not specifically saying solid state will ever be a thing. I did put money in kcac in case they somehow leapfrogged tesla, but the more time that passes the less I feel tesla will be out innovated in the next decade barring some lab accident that results in some accidental breakthrough

 

[heltok]

 

[Mo City]

I'm sorry if this has been brought up before. But who here DOESNT think Tesla has a team working on solid state battery tech. I mean I feel fairly confident they do, or some of their engineers spend x amount of time on it. I'd be disappointed if they dont to be honest. Not because I believe in solid state batteries but because I believe Tesla will always make sure it's got 5 possible paths to a breakthrough in R and D at any time, whereas every other auto company is waiting for a supplier to make a a breakthrough.

I think most of us here have the good sense to believe Tesla is turning over every stone.

If there is a breakthrough in solid state battery tech down the line that makes it superior to lithium ion, Tesla will be at the forefront.

Don't hold your breath waiting.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm sorry if this has been brought up before. But who here DOESNT think Tesla has a team working on solid state battery tech. I mean I feel fairly confident they do, or some of their engineers spend x amount of time on it. I'd be disappointed if they dont to be honest. Not because I believe in solid state batteries but because I believe Tesla will always make sure it's got 5 possible paths to a breakthrough in R and D at any time, whereas every other auto company is waiting for a supplier to make a a breakthrough.

Yes, they are at least proactively monitoring solid state.

It isn't clear to me what solid state will deliver over and above Battery Day and other research paths.

The next path Tesla are likely to pursue is:-
New high-density lithium battery prototype loves heat, won't explode

“Ionic liquids are non-volatile and resistant to catching fire," says Professor Patrick Howlett, director of the research hub, "meaning that unlike the electrolytes currently used in lithium-ion cells used by, for example Samsung and Tesla, they won’t explode. Not only that, but they actually perform better when they heat up, so there’s no need for expensive and cumbersome cooling systems to stop the batteries from overheating.”

Or this one:-
Lithium-metal battery builds its own protective layer as it decays

 

[perwis]

New World Energy Outlook report by International Energy Agency IEA released today.

The report is not free to read, but there is a nice summary of graphs and some main results here: World Energy Outlook 2020 shows how the response to the Covid crisis can reshape the future of energy - News - IEA

Just skimmed it and found this of relevance for us here:

“Reaching net zero globally by 2050, as in the NZE2050, would demand a set of dramatic additional actions over the next ten years. Bringing about a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030 requires, for example, that low-emissions sources provide nearly 75% of global electricity generation in 2030 (up from less than 40% in 2019), and that more than 50% of passenger cars sold worldwide in 2030 are electric (from 2.5% in 2019).”

NZE2050 is one of their four scenarios of possible future developments they use, so this should not be seen as a prediction but one possibility.

Notably, they project an amazing growth of Solar electric energy over the next 20 years (grey is previous 20 years, blue is their Stated Policies Scenario).

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Oct 12, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "S&P Credit Rating Upgrade Triggers $6B MktCap Dngrd"

Traded: $17,219,244,931.79 ($17.22B)
Volume: 38,850,700
VWAP: $443.22

Close: $442.30 / VWAP: 99.79%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $412.139B / $183.335B = 224.80%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $396.78
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $259.11
Nota Bene: 4th tranche of CEO comp. likely unlocked last week

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.1% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 38.4% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.75% of Short Volume (47th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "MMs and hedgies pounce on either good news or bad"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

New World Energy Outlook report by International Energy Agency IEA released today.

The report is not free to read, but there is a nice summary of graphs and some main results here: World Energy Outlook 2020 shows how the response to the Covid crisis can reshape the future of energy - News - IEA

Just skimmed it and found this of relevance for us here:

“Reaching net zero globally by 2050, as in the NZE2050, would demand a set of dramatic additional actions over the next ten years. Bringing about a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030 requires, for example, that low-emissions sources provide nearly 75% of global electricity generation in 2030 (up from less than 40% in 2019), and that more than 50% of passenger cars sold worldwide in 2030 are electric (from 2.5% in 2019).”

NZE2050 is one of their four scenarios of possible future developments they use, so this should not be seen as a prediction but one possibility.

Notably, they project an amazing growth of Solar electric energy over the next 20 years (grey is previous 20 years, blue is their Stated Policies Scenario).

I disagree with this bit:-

“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade,” Dr Birol said. “But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline. Based on today’s policy settings, a global economic rebound would soon push oil demand back to pre-crisis levels.”

Dr Birol hasn't been looking at videos of Tera-factory construction, or viewing the Battery Day presentation... He is underestimating EV production and affordability.

 

[MartinAustin]

Model S just got a $3,000 price cut OUCH!!! (for the other guys I mean)

 

[Artful Dodger]

While I didn't listen in, it would be very unusual for Someone like Cathie Wood to estimate returns than included their trading performance. Very unusual. She was almost certainly analyzing the expected performance of the stock - not her trading desk.

And why do you think "ordinary retail investors" couldn't see a 45% average annual return over 5 years by buying and holding a stock like TSLA?

Exactly. TSLA has grown 8.75x over the past 5 years, for an annual CAGR of 54.3%

That's pure BUY'N'HOLD. BTW, holding to 2025 (5 more years) while maintaining just a 50% CAGR sends the SP to $3,350 and TSLA's Mkt Cap to $3.1T (yes, that's $3.1 TRILLION in 2025).

Except that Elon stated on Bty Day that Tesla growth would ACCELERATE over the next 5 years as the Company gets bigger, not decellerate like other big growth companies. 'Bty Day' showed us how.

Personally, I'm fine with 50% CAGR / $3.1 T Mkt Cap / $3,350 per share in 5 years. That's what I based my investment thesis on 3 years ago. But because I timed the market for buy-in, a few swing trades and FOREX gains, my current CAGR is just over 225%

Yes, that's almost exactly 5 yrs of 'TSLA' growth in half the time. Not too shabby, thanks Elon.

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm sorry if this has been brought up before. But who here DOESNT think Tesla has a team working on solid state battery tech. I mean I feel fairly confident they do, or some of their engineers spend x amount of time on it. I'd be disappointed if they dont to be honest. Not because I believe in solid state batteries but because I believe Tesla will always make sure it's got 5 possible paths to a breakthrough in R and D at any time, whereas every other auto company is waiting for a supplier to make a a breakthrough.

edit: reemphasis of not specifically saying solid state will ever be a thing. I did put money in kcac in case they somehow leapfrogged tesla, but the more time that passes the less I feel tesla will be out innovated in the next decade barring some lab accident that results in some accidental breakthrough

It's more about scalability than pure tech. They have a battery design that scales as necessary (to XX million vehicles) at the required cost. SS didn't do this and won't within Tesla's objective timelines. They will always monitor battery technology, continue to improve and will adopt anything that is superior at scale.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm sorry if this has been brought up before. But who here DOESNT think Tesla has a team working on solid state battery tech. I mean I feel fairly confident they do, or some of their engineers spend x amount of time on it. I'd be disappointed if they dont to be honest.

Tesla monitors bty research progress from at least 60 different teams of researchers around the world. If any one made progress on solid state (SS) btys Tesla would know. They are NOT researching that tech themselves. Tesla is developing mass production techniques for PROVEN tech, as outlined on Bty Day. This is 3 or 4 steps beyond the 'research' stage.

BTW, Sandy Munro stated that Tesla's planned bty cell is already better than proposed (but undeveloped) SS bty cells. He sees no reason why Tesla would wait for SS, since what they have now is already better.

For more background, read about why SS electrolytes have such poor ion conductivity compared to liquid electrolytes, and discover why SS btys don't work in the cold.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros reversed overnight losses; NASDAQ-100 Futures now up 0.61%

TSLA Pre-Market $444.80 +$2.50 +0.57% (05:09:00 AM)

 

[Artful Dodger]

China September
View attachment 597949

Nice! Let's get that tweet in some text to make it searchable here on TMC:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC M3 Sep sales at 11,329. (CPCA) Sep production at 12,212, -3.9% MoM. (EVProbe)" / Twitter​

Some implications for 2020Q4 GF3 production:

• 12,212 Models 3 produced in 20 days in Sep means that GF3/Shanghai has already demonstrated sustained production of 610 cars per day, or 4,275 per week
• continuing this production rate implies GF3 will produce 50,000 Models 3 in just 82 days during Q4
  
• this is BEFORE the new CATL bty supply and the 3rd shift became available at Shanghai

Telsa goal of 500K total production for 2020 comes down to producing about 181K cars total worldwide in Q4. With 50K from Shanghai, that's 131K at Fremont, or about 10K/wk. If Shanghai can increase production beyond Sep 2020's rate of 4K/wk, then those are bonus numbers.

Can Tesla do it? With the 2nd Gigapress and GA5 coming online at Fremont early this quarter, YOU BETCHA!

Keep in mind also that Tesla still has some spare capacity on the Model S/X line (perhaps +6K/qtr spare). With today's announcement of a $4K price reduction for Model S, I think we will also see increased demand for the world's Longest Range EV and Motor Trend Magazine's "Ultimate Car of the Year" (the Tesla Model S).

Cheers!

 

[CLK350]

Cathie Wood today at market close:
Sign Up for the Rebellion Roundtable on September 28, 2020
View attachment 597754

It appears like the Najarian's brother's Rebellion Roundtable is preeeettty BAD, see Market Rebellion - Trading Schools.Org
K10 being so well associated with Tesla fans via whatever is doing a bad disservice to them/ us.
My opinion, prove me wrong.
No free lunch doesn't mean paying for it gets you a decent one, worse could get you an indigestion if it is a scam.

 

[Tslynk67]

Nice! Let's get that tweet in some text to make it searchable here on TMC:

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC M3 Sep sales at 11,329. (CPCA) Sep production at 12,212, -3.9% MoM. (EVProbe)" / Twitter​

Some implications for 2020Q4 GF3 production:

• 12,212 Models 3 produced in 20 days in Sep means that GF3/Shanghai has already demonstrated sustained production of 610 cars per day, or 4,275 per week
• continuing this production rate implies GF3 will produce 50,000 Models 3 in just 82 days during Q4
  
• this is BEFORE the new CATL bty supply and the 3rd shift became available at Shanghai

Telsa goal of 500K total production for 2020 comes down to producing about 181K cars total worldwide in Q4. With 50K from Shanghai, that's 131K at Fremont, or about 10K/wk. If Shanghai can increase production beyond Sep 2020's rate of 4K/wk, then those are bonus numbers.

Can Tesla do it? With the 2nd Gigapress and GA5 coming online at Fremont early this quarter, YOU BETCHA!

Keep in mind also that Tesla still has some spare capacity on the Model S/X line (perhaps +6K/qtr spare). With today's announcement of a $4K price reduction for Model S, I think we will also see increased demand for the world's Longest Range EV and Motor Trend Magazine's "Ultimate Car of the Year" (the Tesla Model S).

Cheers!

And don't forget we had 10 days shutdown end of September for M3 at GF3, but as a consequence, they skipped the October holiday...

 

[Tslynk67]

Macros reversed overnight losses; NASDAQ-100 Futures now up 0.61%

TSLA Pre-Market $444.80 +$2.50 +0.57% (05:09:00 AM)

$447.80 now, on feeble volume. Wait for the walk-down in the next 30 minutes prior to main pre-market opening...