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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yeah, I don't think thats what happened:
  • Tesla built the new Grohmann machine on a newly created "forth floor" at GF1 (per carsonight/DISQUS)
  • They also had to maintain full production of LR/MR packs meaning the existing machines on the 3rd floor couldn't be taken out of service
  • Tesla plans to provide initial SR packs to GF3/Shanghai from GF1 so there will be increasing demand there too
Conclusion: the new Grohmann line is dedicated to SR pack production, and the existing lines will continue at full output for LR/MR.
OK, I'll believe that, but I still think the Grohmann line is designed to produce SR, SR+, and to produce MR and LR in the future. You don't design a "cheaper, faster, better" pack production line and then not plan to leverage that "machine that builds the machine".
 
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Something I haven't even yet seen discussed is that banks who have been underwriting Tesla leases on S and X (as far as I know Tesla doesn't do their own leasing but relies on partners) just got completely shafted by what Tesla did. The residuals that were put out on those models, even at 50% on a 30K 3 year lease are worth toilet paper now.
The new equivalent of my 3 year old Model S 90D got cheaper than what I paid for mine for the first time in 3 years and not by a lot, so it’s probably not that dramatic for lease companies.
 
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I think you said it yourself (emphasized above), and I'd point out that J B Straubel has been seriously into battery chemistry stuff for a long, long time, in great detail. There was also the discussion of adding silicon to the anode (I don't remember exactly when that was). Tesla definitely owns some battery chemistry patents, and I'm quite sure they're using them. Probably Panasonic has some IP too , but I am pretty sure they can't make Tesla cells for anyone else.

But neither of us really knows. I think Tesla is edging towards owning the IP for their own cells, but they aren’t there yet. If someone could show me Tesla job postings for battery cell researchers, that would convince me, but AFAIK, they haven’t had those positions. JB is an executive, not a wet chemist scientist, which is what you need for cell development.
 
A great percentage of those sales today, initiated as short, were the same unborrowed, non-existent shares sold and bought, over and over again at lower and lower prices, in order to facilitate the covering of longer term shorts.

I... would be careful with such declarations. Is that possibly true? Maybe. Is it verified fact? Noooooo
 
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OK, I'll believe that, but I still think the Grohmann line is designed to produce SR, SR+, and to produce MR and LR in the future. You don't design a "cheaper, faster, better" pack production line and then not plan to leverage that "machine that builds the machine".

Nah, I think you are right. MR was an LR with dummy cells. No reason to continue that inefficiency when you have new machine that makes packs faster and cheaper.
Taking about LR:
It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February
Elon Musk on Twitter
 
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And it's disingenuous to continue this while ignoring my (and others) comments that Elon said they will pay the bond in cash both before and after the Dec story by Hull.

Elon stated multiple times that Tesla would pay off the 2019 converts, not refinance them. The method of repayment was not specified in any of his statements. If you can cite a reference to any of Elon's statements after November 30, 2018 that the method of that repayment (rather than refinancing) would be in cash, please do so. Do you even understand the distinction between conversions and redemptions?

You have also asserted the harm from the alleged Hull "lie" is that settlement using half shares would have diluted shareholders' ownership percentages. Are you aware that, notwithstanding representations in quarterly filings that settlement of the principal value of all converts would be with cash only, Tesla reported retrospectively that it settled the principal value of the majority of the 2018 convertible notes using shares issued under SEC registration exemptions? Have you objected to those dilutions?
 
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Amazing that Tesla could drop on a new product announcement that's been telegraphed forever. Marketwatch has a bunch of FUD today. Probably more bailout from retail investors.
Retail investors increased today. 4000 new accounts on Robinhood went long today.

Huge volume = institutions unloading. A large investor could also be buying up those shares tho
 
Mostly North Dakota.
plus South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana. The West between the Midwest and coastal Pacific is huge and has almost no SCers, so lots of work yet to do in densifying the charging network if longrange emobility outside of a few routes along the interstate highways is ever going to be a possibility.
 
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Elon stated multiple times that Tesla would pay off the 2019 converts, not refinance them. The method of repayment was not specified in any of his statements.
"Pay off" means cash. I've been an investor long enough to know that anything else isn't a normal interpretation of those words.