Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

I saw a waymo mapping vehicle being driven around the san mateo area the other day. I still feel confident Tesla will win the race, but waymo servicing the bay area might be in the near term future and that might rock the boat a bit.

 

[feigen66]

I saw a waymo mapping vehicle being driven around the san mateo area the other day. I still feel confident Tesla will win the race, but waymo servicing the bay area might be in the near term future and that might rock the boat a bit.

Waymo's OPEX is insanely high. Each autonomous vehicle is more expensive than a Ferrari. Also their vehicle is custom-made ICEs. Maintenance cost will skyrocket. If Google's other bets are any indicators, they are mostly showy toys for the brand images.

 

[kanweg]

Troy reports close to 23k Model 3s produced in Shanghai.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1326386005818085379?s=21

edit: for October. If you do the math it boils down to 69 k for Q4/20

(All the content of this post was eh borrowed from other people on the Internet)

 

[kengchang]

Troy reports close to 23k Model 3s produced in Shanghai.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1326386005818085379?s=21

Giga Shanghai will shoulder the burden of supplying Model 3 SR+ for Europe until Giga Berlin is making Model 3

 

[Mo City]

Troy reports close to 23k Model 3s produced in Shanghai.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1326386005818085379?s=21

Troy added a later tweet saying the 36Kr article giving 550K for total MIC 2021 looks more credible.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1326386005818085379

On Oct 19th, Troy forecasted 346.4K in 2021 for Shanghai (797K global). If he increases his Shanghai number accordingly, his global 2021 forecast would change to almost exactly 1M.

EDIT: His 2021 expectations for Berlin and Austin are dismal. I think 2021 could be 1.1-1.3M

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Nov 10, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "MMs on Cruise Control..."

Traded: $12,403,195,924.53 ($12.40B)
Volume: 30,391,352
VWAP: $408.12

Close: $410.36 / VWAP: 100.56%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $388.981B / $194.661B = 199.82%

Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $402.33B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $302.12B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.3% (51th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 45.0% (48th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.56% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "... in a Glass-bottomed boat"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

The CPU unit cost Apple very little money, and it stands to reason that they would sell it at a fairly good price compared to Intel for the same kind of power. Apple is actually capable of disrupting the CPU market.

We can close this discussion right away - Apple will never sell its custom silicon to anyone else.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yep. They've been doing this since early 2019, at least. It was well documented in a series of tweets by Green where he was "debunking" the shadow mode myth. But it really showed the power of Tesla's fleet: https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1096322810694287361?s=20

Essentially Tesla can send out data collection "campaigns" to the fleet with certain parameters. They can tell the cars: If you drive within a certain longitude/latitude, snap a video. If you see something that looks like a stop sign, snap a video. If AP is disengaged by the user while it's raining, snap a video.

It's my understanding that this storage does fill up eventually, and it doesn't necessarily transfer back to the Mothership on LTE. It waits until the car is parked with WiFi before sending it all back to base.

Thanks for the info. What you describe is the first of the two scenarios: “please be on the lookout for” rather than “have you seen this”. So the storage requirements are minimal, but each data gathering requires a bit of time while waiting for the events of interest to actually occur. It’s not a “query” in the database sense where results are immediate and returned from data that already exists.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Interesting take.

Cause Elon's recent Twitter and tesla's public announcements has been good lately. Which logically implies that all thise outburst and the 420 twit were planned by the PR department?

In any case, whatever is working now is good.

No, it implies that Elon learns from his mistakes, which is rare for a human.

Talking about learning from mistakes, this video seems to show FSD learning (perhaps just map updates) when it encounters a situation that it cannot handle:

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Giga Shanghai will shoulder the burden of supplying Model 3 SR+ for Europe until Giga Berlin is making Model 3

Looking at the Tesla carrier tracker (Tesla Carriers), there have been 3 ships from San Francisco and 2 from Shanghai so far this quarter (with another one from San Francisco in a few days).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Troy reports close to 23k Model 3s produced in Shanghai.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1326386005818085379?s=21

edit: for October. If you do the math it boils down to 69 k for Q4/20

(All the content of this post was eh borrowed from other people on the Internet)

Model 3 is still probably ramping up in Shanghai, so perhaps 72 k for Q4/20

 

[MikeAtkinson]

It looks like Troy's estimates are low for production by 7.5k last month and perhaps 15k for Q4/20, so deliveries are on track for 515k for the year.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1326386873334444036

 

[Artful Dodger]

NASDAQ-100 Futures +114.75 +0.99% 04:59:59

TSLA Pre-market 413.66 +3.30 (0.80%) Nov. 11, 4:59 a.m. EST

 

[jamaatta]

Tesmanian already updated production numbers of Shanghai: "Update: With our latest source update, the current Model 3 production has now surpassed 5700 units per week, which is just a hair under 300,000 yearly units."

Tesla Giga Shanghai Amps Up Model 3 Production to 22,929 in October, Nears 300K Annual Rate

 

[kbM3]

Yes, that is my best guess, Dojo doesn't need to be ready to apply for regulatory approval, but Tesla does need to be on the March of 9s..

Without Dojo progress is slower, if the find edge cases that require additional software development as opposed to NN training then that can proceed Dojo has no impact on that. IMO the next 6-12 months is all about finding this kind of edge case that is probably going from 9x% to 99.y%. If they get to 99.y% by the Dojo time is ready, it is a fast march of 9s after that.

What is 9x% at present? My guess x = 7 so 97%. I also guess 1 year to go from 97% to 99.1%.
These guesses could be wrong, just given my opinion based on what i have seen.in the FSD videos.

Elon tweeted the new preferred metric is probability of intervention.

My guess would be probably either per 1 km or per 100 km (so target for initial release was < 50% intervention per 100 km or to probably be able to complete an average trip). So it will actually be the March of zeroes

EDIT: This is the full 3 hour interview which contains the Dojo snippet posted earlier, if there are any tech junkies this long interview on Dave Lee investing between @DaveT and @jimmy_d on FSD was incredibly informative.

Since James is such an expert and he’s highly confident Tesla will solve the March of “0”’s, I am more excited than ever and trying hard to keep myself from increasing my TSLA from 80% to 100%!

 

[Tslynk67]

Still not getting it..

$500 calls this Friday stand at $0,13, so that's $13 per contract.. So you'd need 7 contracts or 700 shares as cover to gain about $90, against 700 shares' worth of about $290,000.. To make an 'interesting' profit of $1000/week you'd be around 7500 shares to cover 75 calls, worth $2,9m.., so on a year basis that's a gain of 0,5%.. Not that interesting, is it?

What am I missing?

You're missing that right now the IV is lower than it has been for years, 2 months back the premiums were way higher than the current. I sold three December 18th $700 for $3200, for instance, kind of kicking myself I didn't sell more of those, bought them back for $100, just to remove the S&P risk.

In any case, selling a $500 call for this Friday isn't worth the effort - in fact with my broker it doesn't even cover the fees. If I were looking to sell weeklies, would be the $450 and for next Friday or after, given that $450 has massive resistance for quite some time now.

But I'd only personally do that with my trading shares, not core shares - $800 is my target price for those, then you need to be writing calls >6 months in the future to get anything worthwhile - September 2021 $800's are $2400 per contract. The downside is that your shares are tied up until then. What if you need to sell for something unexpected, you'd need to rebuy the contracts likely at a loss. Also the possibility that at S&P comes along, we get a squeeze up to $750, then back down to $500 - you missed the chance to sell the shares close to your target price, which is attractive in a short-term squeeze scenario, i.e. rebuy cheaper, or the chance to sell those same calls for a much higher price anyway.

So I'm not in favour of writing far-out calls, I'm looking for 3 months ahead, March $8000, $600 per contract would give me, $18k, actually not to bad, but I'll bit until the New Year, see what the Q4 P&D brings us, etc. Hopefully the C19 vaccine will be imminent, the politics will have stabilised, etc., IV should rise.

 

[Tslynk67]

Small data point... had booked my XP in for annual inspection this week and asked if HW3.0 could be retrofitted, along with a MCU2 upgrade. At first it was unsure as to whether they would have the parts in stock, but when I dropped-off the car they said they'd managed to secure them.

What can I say, it's like jumping several iPhone years for an update, seriously like driving a new car, so responsive, LTE signal is stronger too. TBH I don't care about the games and video capabilities, but I do want the latest-and-greatest FSD, sentry mode, dash-cams, etc.

OK, the MCU2 set me back around €2300 (it's €2750, I can claim the sales tax back), but as I'm going to keep the car for the foreseeable future, money well-spent.

Very happy indeed

 

[saniflash]

Small data point... had booked my XP in for annual inspection this week and asked if HW3.0 could be retrofitted, along with a MCU2 upgrade. At first it was unsure as to whether they would have the parts in stock, but when I dropped-off the car they said they'd managed to secure them.

nice, congrats! mine is due on Dec 7 for the retrofit. Last Thursday, inquired SC if it's possible, parts arrived this Mon. Looking forward to it big time.

Price here in CH: CHF 2.6k w/ 7.7% VAT
if with DAB, + CHF 500

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hopefully the C19 vaccine will be imminent, the politics will have stabilised, etc., IV should rise.

Shouldn't those two specific items cause IV to fall?

 

[Nocturnal]

So I'm not in favour of writing far-out calls, I'm looking for 3 months ahead, March $8000, $600 per contract would give me, $18k, actually not to bad, but I'll bit until the New Year, see what the Q4 P&D brings us, etc. Hopefully the C19 vaccine will be imminent, the politics will have stabilised, etc., IV should rise.

That's more or less my plan. I was selling covered calls back during our big summer gains, then bought them back cheap during the big dips. I'm holding off now because the premiums are just so low and any big event could have us see a big jump/squeeze again.