Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Fun thing to add as I've seen a few people in here mention how the AH trading always seems weird compared to the normal days trading.


https://twitter.com/MacroCharts/status/1326494884933496838

spy-day-and-night

I've been buying some TSLA at the close and dumping it when I wake up ~7:15 for mostly easy money.

 

[vikings123]

But some of us are a little paranoid, and currently have substantial amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines. Ross Gerber recently said half of his portfolio is in cash. There’s a lot of fear out there that we are in a bubble. Anyway it looks like I could have been making a little bit on the side selling covered calls, basically risk free since a third of my portfolio is in cash. Correct me if I’m wrong. If I’m right this is a big light bulb moment for me. I’m a little slow.

It really depends on your risk tolerance. Selling puts might be a better strategy to employ in your case. I usually wait for a day where we drop significantly and just based on my limited technical knowledge I pick the time to sell my puts on a weekly basis. If you are OK with your capital getting held up for longer you can sell puts expiring in Jan/Feb.

As an example a Jan 450 put will net you $6600, meaning your breakeven is around a stock price of 384$. You will need to allocate 45000$ of your capital until either expiry or buy to close.

There is no free lunch and you will get assigned sometimes which is when you sell aggressive calls against those assigned shares(ladder). But like others said IV is really low and it might be prudent to wait until there is a spike in IV. The only major catalyst on the short term horizon is S&P inclusion, Wall street does not seem to care about batteries or FSD or P&D or Earnings lol.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EST:

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Morning campers! It's two days after we went TSLA should have popped, let's see if we get our delayed pop today!

Also, can someone please include this company in the Standard & Poor's 500 index? Thank you!

 

[Buckminster]

BMW iX is brand's new 500bhp electric flagship | Autocar
One of the comments summed it up:

The iX will need to be capable of driving itself, as occupants will want to hide themselves from being seen in such an ugly vehicle.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fauci is saying he expects the vaccine to be widely available by April, high risk people like health care workers and elderly in the next few months.

But some of us are a little paranoid, and currently have substantial amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines. Ross Gerber recently said half of his portfolio is in cash. There’s a lot of fear out there that we are in a bubble. Anyway it looks like I could have been making a little bit on the side selling covered calls, basically risk free since a third of my portfolio is in cash. Correct me if I’m wrong. If I’m right this is a big light bulb moment for me. I’m a little slow.

I don't think those fears are unfounded at all, but fund managers have somewhat different requirements in the short term than we do. I can take a risk of a short term drop to increase my chances of a big gain, they can't as easily.

 

[heltok]

This was already debunked pages ago in the thread from his day 1 video- no the car is not learning (this is both impossible and would be dumb if they DID have it set up that way, troubleshooting would be a nightmare if each car behaved differently)- the initial failure and later success is the difference in set speed (in the day 2 video he even gives a wink to this fact mentioning the higher speed on attempt 1)

Technically if they are using a temporal network, ie an LSTM, it will remember any information that helps it minimize the loss function during training. For example if some lane marking and car position 10s ago was relevant information for which lane marking should be used right now, that will probably be remembered. So if the car enters an area, “learns something about the environment” and some of that information was useful and is being passed on to the future, it might help the car perform better if you drive back again without driving far enough away in time and space for it to forget it.

Would be fun to be a part of Teslas Autopilot team and be able to find out if this happens in practice or not.

 

[UncaNed]

Yep. They've been doing this since early 2019, at least. It was well documented in a series of tweets by Green where he was "debunking" the shadow mode myth. But it really showed the power of Tesla's fleet: https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1096322810694287361?s=20

Essentially Tesla can send out data collection "campaigns" to the fleet with certain parameters. They can tell the cars: If you drive within a certain longitude/latitude, snap a video. If you see something that looks like a stop sign, snap a video. If AP is disengaged by the user while it's raining, snap a video.

It's my understanding that this storage does fill up eventually, and it doesn't necessarily transfer back to the Mothership on LTE. It waits until the car is parked with WiFi before sending it all back to base.

Perhaps that's why my last 2 software updates insisted I connect to WiFi instead of the usual cellular data.

 

[Sudre]

Yesterday played out like I thought it would. Today max pain is not $417 as listed. It is any where between >$400 and <$430 now. For the most part the Calls and PUTs are sold close to even in that range. A bit more on the PUTs so it seems THEY are concerned about the SP going up more than down.

 

[redan]

Elazar Advisors, article and video ($744 PT):

Tesla: Secret Sauce For Valuation, Strong Buy Rating (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Model and Price Target

At the moment, our 2021 EPS estimates for Tesla are around $14.07 (full model: paywall). The Street’s at $4. If we’re right which way is the stock going?

Using a conservative PE of 55, that would give us a 12-month price target of around $744. I think if we're right on earnings the market could be ready to pay a higher PE. With current prices near $410 this gives us around 88% 12-month upside potential.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Elazar Advisors, article and video ($744 PT):

Tesla: Secret Sauce For Valuation, Strong Buy Rating (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Model and Price Target

At the moment, our 2021 EPS estimates for Tesla are around $14.07 (full model: paywall). The Street’s at $4. If we’re right which way is the stock going?

Using a conservative PE of 55, that would give us a 12-month price target of around $744. I think if we're right on earnings the market could be ready to pay a higher PE. With current prices near $410 this gives us around 88% 12-month upside potential.

So I should quit sitting on my cash

 

[Krugerrand]

Gordon always cherry picks his case numbers so he is technically right (there is sales decline in those countries - but only b/c Tesla hasn't shipped cars there, not because of demand).

If anyone ever deserved a lump of coal in his stocking for Xmas . . .

Surprisingly, you’re too kind. Whatupwitdat?

Road, bus and I’ll push.

 

[ggies07]

The pre-main-market walk down, every firkin' day...

I appreciate the slow walk today as it allowed me to buy 10 more shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elazar Advisors, article and video ($744 PT):

Tesla: Secret Sauce For Valuation, Strong Buy Rating (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Model and Price Target

At the moment, our 2021 EPS estimates for Tesla are around $14.07 (full model: paywall). The Street’s at $4. If we’re right which way is the stock going?

Using a conservative PE of 55, that would give us a 12-month price target of around $744. I think if we're right on earnings the market could be ready to pay a higher PE. With current prices near $410 this gives us around 88% 12-month upside potential.

Summary:

• We have a $700-plus price target.
• Gross margins are the key driver. ZEV credits help.
• Competition and market share gains can both be positives. I'll explain.
  • S/A article is NOT a summary of the video
  • Uploaded by Chaim Siegel 15 hrs ago

Cheers!

 

[bkp_duke]

Surprisingly, you’re too kind. Whatupwitdat?

Road, bus and I’ll push.

Was feeling generous, but if you want to run him over with a bus, I'll happily help.

 

[viridi]

Big time capping this a.m. Typical pattern - put in large sell orders to cap a certain price, and then pull when goal achieved. Rinse and repeat.

 

[cusetownusa]

I’m bummed I missed out on buying more shares at around $400 yesterday. Had to move some money around and wasnt available to invest until today.

 

[FS_FRA]

BMW iX is brand's new 500bhp electric flagship | Autocar
One of the comments summed it up:

The iX will need to be capable of driving itself, as occupants will want to hide themselves from being seen in such an ugly vehicle.

"...available to order now, deliveries to select customers end 2021!"

 

[juanmedina]

Hong Kong/Tokyo (CNN Business)Honda (HMC) is launching a new version of its Legend sedan that will take over for drivers on busy highways after the company got approval for its level 3 self-driving system in Japan.

The Japanese government has touted the move as a "world first," saying that it would make Honda the first carmaker to mass produce and sell the next level of self-driving vehicles. Other driver assistance systems, such as Tesla's (TSLA)Autopilot and General Motors' (GM) Supercruise, are level 2 systems, meaning that they can control vehicle speed and steering, but still require the driver to pay attention at all times and be ready to intervene. Level 3 systems may only require driver attention in specific situations.
Honda said in a statement on Wednesday that it received approval from Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. The company plans to start selling Legends equipped with its system before the end of March 2021.....

Honda's new Legend will drive itself on busy roads - CNN

 

[phantasms]

I’m bummed I missed out on buying more shares at around $400 yesterday. Had to move some money around and wasnt available to invest until today.

Just give it a week. After it goes to 450 it'll be back at 395 ten minutes later.