Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

You sure about S and X not having liquid cooled AP computer?

Yes, here's the heat sink and cooling fans viewed edge on.

Inside the NVIDIA PX2 board on my HW2 AP2.0 Model S (with Pics!)

Cheers!

 

[Antares Nebula]

I will work for Tesla if they just pay me room/board/living expenses and long term vesting stock options.

(Just wanted to throw it out there in case any Tesla employees frequent this forum.)

 

[gene]

Small data entry: In my direct circle of friends. Three of them could not resist lower prices and ordered 3 (one each) SR+ just in the last 4 days.

 

[EVNow]

Not sure what the comparative middle classes are of India cf. China.

India's car sales are comparable to Germany's in volume, rather than China. But the ASP is much lower and BMW & Mercedes together sold about 25k cars in 2018. So, I think 10k / year would be a high mark for Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

It really doesn't matter even if TSLA lose money on the SR model. Its classic inverse decoy pricing. They lure you in with an incredibly cheap car, and then once you're on their website they encourage you to buy something better. As long as the profit from people who buy SR+ or even higher exceeds the losses from total bare-bones SR sales, its a financial win.
And super-long term, those people who buy SR might have a better job/more income in future, and are very likely to stick with the brand. How many people will buy an SR in the first job/2nd job and an S/X/P3 a decade later?

FTFY

 

[Intl Professor]

Expect a market turnaround shortly. Before to call for prayers with offering of food to Buddha and spirit of the house and immediate place radiating outwards, I underwent inspection. My SM (significant mother, sargeant major, wife) noticed my pyjama pants were wrong side out for the second time in two days. That has now been corrected. Not an advice.

 

[Sudre]

If anyone knows better, feel free to correct me, but I think Jonas is actually wrong here:

Morgan Stanley says automakers want to sell cars like Tesla does but can't: 'It's against the law'

Other manufacturers can’t legally sell cars the way Tesla *used* to(in self-owned stores), but I don’t believe there’s any legal grounds for a ban on them selling via their websites rather than via a physical store. Such a ban in any state would violate the interstate commerce clause(the ban on self-owned stores arguably doesn’t, as it just prevents them from owning such a storefront within the state). Barring federal laws preventing it, I think Tesla just opened the floodgates for all manufacturers who want to sell directly to customers.

There are state laws that will not allow an auto manufacturer to sell a car if that manufacture has a signatory franchise dealership. Even if it is a franchise in another state. That’s one of the reasons Tesla can not have a franchise dealer in a single state. It would void their store in another state.

 

[ZeApelido]

Just unbelievable. Sold some other positions and bought 83 shares at 280.

My portfolio diversification strategy is herding...

 

[jerry33]

Expect a market turnaround shortly. Before to call for prayers with offering of food to Buddha and spirit of the house and immediate place radiating outwards, I underwent inspection. My SM (significant mother, sargeant major, wife) noticed my pyjama pants were wrong side out. That has now been corrected. Not an advice.

How else will you keep the label from scratching you?

 

[elasalle]

India's car sales are comparable to Germany's in volume, rather than China. But the ASP is much lower and BMW & Mercedes together sold about 25k cars in 2018. So, I think 10k / year would be a high mark for Tesla.

View attachment 383254

I sometimes think Deepak will come back in a different role for Tesla India ...

 

[Toumal]

It really doesn't matter even if TSLA lose money on the SR model. Its classic inverse decoy pricing. They lure you in with an incredibly cheap car, and then once you are in the store they encourage you to buy something better.

And on top of that, they can still monetize features via additional purchases after the initial car sale by having people pay for AP and/or FSD upgrades. This is something other manufacturers would love to be able to do but can't, either because they are not set up for this or because they have nothing compelling to offer post initial sale.

So that SR model can still bring in additional 5k or more after the fact, and chances are good that the conversion rate is not too shabby.

 

[ReflexFunds]

A big question as to how much more profitable SR+ is than SR is, "is the website correct?" The site lists SR and SR+ as having the same weight. If they're truly the same number of cells, then it's just power seats, extra speakers, and fog lamps. Not that expensive at all, that upgrade would be overwhelmingly profit.

And yeah, all anecdotal evidence I'm seeing is that SR+ is a lot more popular than SR.

If the website weights are correct then:

• LR RWD is software limited LR AWD. This would have 4,416 cells and 76.4kwh battery (useable capacity a bit lower)
• MR RWD still has the same pack as LR, but 2 of the 4 modules are smaller with 3744 total cells and 64.8kwh.
• SR+ again has the same pack as LR, but 2 modules are smaller again with 3,456 total cells and 59.8kwh
• SR is a software limited SR+.

In the "game of pennies" so much software limited hardware doesn't make much sense. I think the cars currently on sale do not use the new pack design, as the new module/pack machines ramps up I'm sure we'll see the weights reduced and margins increase.

As @Mars ☰mperor commented above, I think the LR RWD weight on the US website is likely a mistake and just copied from AWD. I seem to remember the MR weight previously being the same as SR+/SR before it was corrected a few days go.

 

[Mad@gascar]

Investors should ask themselves if they were a customer, would you rather get to sit in the car at a boutique, or save yourself $2,500 by ordering online?

For me it’s a no brainer, I can use that $2,500 to upgrade to Autopilot.

Rephrasing this point to make even more compelling: Would you rather order online, or pay $2500 for a test drive? Honestly?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

If the website weights are correct then:

• LR RWD is software limited LR AWD. This would have 4,416 cells and 76.4kwh battery (useable capacity a bit lower)
• MR RWD still has the same pack as LR, but the 2 modules are smaller with 3744 total cells and 64.8kwh.
• SR+ again has the same pack as LR, but 2 modules are smaller again with 3,456 total cells and 59.8kwh
• SR is a software limited SR+.

In the "game of pennies" so much software limited hardware doesn't make much sense. I think the cars currently on sale do not use the new module design, as the new module machine ramps up I'm sure we'll see the weights reduced and margins increase.

Have a look at my reply. What do you think?
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Carl Raymond]

Let's be clear - if you're a well-heeled celebrity and don't have a Tesla as at least your daily driver, then you're lame.

Let’s be clear. If you buy a new sans-tow-bar ICE sedan that costs more than a Tesla (just $35K in USA), then you’re lame. The equivalent of smoking in the kindergarten. We shouldn’t use this stick, much nicer to use the carrot and describe the many benefits of quitting tailpipes.

But the stick is real, crossing the cost curves kills ICEVs stone dead. When the market grasps the implications of the base model SR... historians will be flummoxed that TSLA share price fell on news of its release.

 

[Intl Professor]

How else will you keep the label from scratching you?

What's the word for "I itch all over" syndrome? Marriage?

 

[AlexS]

I have a little fantasy that Musk is talking with certain banks about a deal to acquire CVNA.

Didn't know anything about this company. Now I feel little better about loosing most Tesla stores.
But in Europe website is geoblocked, but looked up how it works on youtube

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

India's car sales are comparable to Germany's in volume, rather than China. But the ASP is much lower and BMW & Mercedes together sold about 25k cars in 2018. So, I think 10k / year would be a high mark for Tesla.

View attachment 383254

They are staggering numbers in China!
Perspective on why the Chinese GF is monumentally important

 

[1101011]

Sure seems like we should be. Nothing against the S/X--they're great cars. But it seems unquestionably true to me that some significant subset of S/X buyers bought them not because they specifically required a giant sedan or an SUV, but because they wanted an EV that didn't suck. Today, if you're not tied to the form factor or ludicrous speeds, the Model 3 at half the cost is tough to ignore.

Quite true. Looking for an EV in 2014, I talked to a Chevy dealer to see if he could get me a Spark, but that could only be sold to a resident of CA or OR. Test drove a Mitsubishi, but the damn thing couldn't make a round trip to the airport.

Didn't need a car the size of the S, but it was what was available.

Probably trade it in on the MY.

 

[KarenRei]

They are staggering numbers in China!
Perspective on why the Chinese GF is monumentally important

Production costs in China are low, and it's a more price-sensitive market.. I wouldn't even rule out Tesla eventually (e.g. perhaps a year from now) cutting a few thousand dollars off the price of the GF3-made Model 3s (e.g. selling them cheaper than Model 3s in the US); there will be IMHO an obvious business case to do so, as the boost in volume (and thus profitable options sales) would be huge. You might get a little grumbling from US consumers, but I think most people expect Chinese-made cars to be cheaper and won't make a fuss.