Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

Fact checking says that Tesla has "reliably liquid cooled thermal environment which helps a lot" and he says they are drop-in replacements on the S, X and 3.

Seems that Mongo is saying that the present S and X do not have liquid cooling at the board even though the 3 does. I don't know about the S and X but I do think the board is the same among the present S, X and 3 so whatever today's board requires seems like the new NN chip set should support.

I would like to have confirmation that the S and X do not have liquid cooling in the present board and if that is correct then the term "drop-in" may be overly optimistic for the S and X.... unless the liquid cooling is not required or there can be some other clock speed adjustment that tempers the need for liquid cooling or something else (ie a fan).

To expand on this a bit. It is my expectation that every new design will have a better future model to build toward. Each new design builds on assumptions and they are better in every iteration. S & X may be able to fully support this new NN board but if it becomes 4 NN chips then that probably won't be supported.... probably not even the present 3 but perhaps in the Y (it's a newer design with a better set of assumptions).

High level of interest in this one, since I have an MS built in Feb 2018 and paid for FSD. Since then have heard repeated promises that this will give me HW3 upgrade, will ge quite disappointed if this turns out to be not true.

 

[printf42]

It looks like the market is having a hard time trying to digest the closing of the stores. With the stores and the price points, a lot of analysts assumed Tesla would be the Apple of cars. Now without the stores, that theory seems to have been cast aside. Now they are wondering if it is really more like Amazon.

If the number one issue with closing stores is lack of test drives, there are other ways to solve that. As several people have mentioned, there could be an Uber like test drive request app where a local owner can give you a test drive and the owner gets compensated in some way with service credits or something. They can also turn service centers into a place where test drives can be scheduled.

Apple products needs to be in every mall you visit, so that you can just drop by and spend some time holding them, and maybe impulse buy.

Tesla product has 2 orders of magnitude higher price tag, let’s face it, nobody would impulse buy, and people won’t mind to drive 20 miles to the only gallery in the area to check it out(if they have to see one in a store, not one belongs to a coworker), as long as it’s in a decent mall.

For example the whole Bay Area would be good if there is only one gallery, but how many stores we have now?

 

[Fact Checking]

EDIT: re-reading, I guess you’re saying it’ll increase demand over keeping the stores. Could be. I doubt even Tesla knows that answer for sure.

I'm pretty sure it a significant net win, I wrote a long post with estimates and numbers why I think that every $1,000 reduction increases the addressable market by about 2 million customers in the U.S. alone, who are buying about 300,000 cars per year on average.

Price reductions are a Big Falcon Deal.

 

[jhm]

While shorts say Tesla cut price because there is no demand. My view is totally different.

What Tesla is doing will lead to the most powerful moat: lower cost than anybody else. Tesla put in the effort to design great products, then cut cost aggressively, then sell them at a reasonable margin. Competitors will not be able to compete.

If I were a legacy car maker, I would be very worried about my ICE demand. I would also understand my EV won't be able to make any profit as long as Tesla offers their Model 3 and Model Y at those prices.

This is the elephant in the room. I think other car makers are in big trouble. The world is transitioning to EV, Tesla may take 50% of the market.

This is exactly the point. The market has not even begun to contemplate how Tesla's fast movement will impact legacy automakers. Hell, yes, Tesla is on its way to owning a 50% share of the US market. Tesla is positioning itself for maximum production growth at prices no one can touch. This strategic move is given cover by short, media and analysts who are all framing as Tesla stumble. The market is completely misdirected as Tesla performs ninja maneuvers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

in a way, it's encouraging that Elon and Tesla aren't wasting a lot of time trying to prop up the stock price. they SAY they don't need cash raises from external sources anymore, and this corroborates that claim. the stock price at this point is only important insofar as making their employees feel well-compensated, but that's not a good enough reason to spend every day fighting a rigged system, i suppose.

they've got more important day to day concerns, and that shows they're focusing on more material things.

... and there's that little thorn in my side that keeps me thinking they will never be profitable (really). Mission over profit. Only defense is world dominance has value as well... but when will that happen? Are we there yet?

 

[PhaseWhite]

It really doesn't matter even if TSLA lose money on the SR model. Its classic inverse decoy pricing. They lure you in with an incredibly cheap car, and then once you are in the store they encourage you to buy something better. As long as the profit from people who buy SR+ or even higher exceeds the losses from total bare-bones SR sales, its a financial win.
And super-long term, those people who buy SR might have a better job/more income in future, and are very likely to stick with the brand. How many people will buy an SR in the first job/2nd job and an S/X/P3 a decade later?

Not to mention a lot of people who buy an SR or SR+ thinking "It will make a good 2nd car" will realize that they are in love with the car and it will be their primary vehicle. Some might make a quick move up to a higher spec version (those that can afford to do so). Others will at the very least be thinking about a Tesla for their next purchase going forward and will likely buy the more expensive trim.

 

[KarenRei]

Tutes are dumping because the company isn’t making sense. Closing all retail stores 9 days after stating in the annual report that retail will be expanding

You mean the 10-K? Yeah, it also doesn't say that they'd be imminently doing the Model Y unveiling either. A 10-K is the last place you want to introduce new strategies and products.

I get it. The news was abrupt. Would you rather Tesla slowly break it? Dribble out a bit here, a bit there?

 

[Cohiba]

I think no other company has pivoted from an Apple to an Amazon strategy quicker than Tesla. Take all the (short-term) margin versus take the whole market.

They are also producing 6-7k of salespeople per week in 3 continents. Very impressive.

 

[scaesare]

There are far too many red 3s - I've to now look at the license plate to find mine.

I wish I can get that 1880s William Morrison EV in my avatar so I won't have difficulty finding in the parking lot.

ps : BTW, Morrison built the first EV in US in 1881.

This is why the app can beep the horn & flash lights... on the S at least.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Run baby run.

 

[SO16]

It really doesn't matter even if TSLA lose money on the SR model. Its classic inverse decoy pricing. They lure you in with an incredibly cheap car, and then once you are in the store they encourage you to buy something better. As long as the profit from people who buy SR+ or even higher exceeds the losses from total bare-bones SR sales, its a financial win.
And super-long term, those people who buy SR might have a better job/more income in future, and are very likely to stick with the brand. How many people will buy an SR in the first job/2nd job and an S/X/P3 a decade later?

Yes it does matter. I want to see Lutz eat crow.

 

[MartinAustin]

This comeback is pretty darn strong... $281 !!!

 

[Tslynk67]

The problem with official communications from Tesla is that you have to be 100% sure it is accurate. Which means a lot of people have to review the info. Which means it isn’t worth doing for items that will get fixed within a matter of days. Lord knows there is more FUD out there than even we have noticed. Tesla can’t address all of it.

Look, assuming Tesla doesn’t need to issue more stock, the stock price is fairly irrelevant to Tesla right now. It’ll get back up after a quarterly report or two. The SR model 3 pretty much ensures that. The broad market is just nervous about margins, trade issues, fed tax credit expiry affecting demand, a whole bunch of things. The only way the market is going to get reassured is quarterly results.

Just treat this as a buying opportunity. I personally can’t since I bought a lot of TSLA after Elon’s $420 tweet and I was too stupid to unload it for break even when the stock price got back up to $374 for a few hours. My bad.

Totally agree and I've no intention of selling my main position anyway, I have some sell orders in case of a squeeze, but if the stock climbs slowly I will cancel them.

But I am afraid that this continual FUD casts a negative perception on the brand. We know it's all BS, but Joe Public just keeps hearing these stories and many believe it; just at a time when we want average people to think about buying.

Plus the SP going down all the time is just depressing. It's a chronic stress in my life - I guess this is one thing that shakes-out weak longs.

 

[jhm]

I have a little fantasy that Musk is talking with certain banks about a deal to acquire CVNA.

 

[Buckminster]

At this point I'd actually be ok with the 420 buyout. Literally 7 days ago i would have said no buyout until 600/share. But the past week has made not concerned, but just genuinely pissed off at Teslas PR/communication and its treatment of its shareholders. No effort to combat the constant FUD and media, no effort to clarify their statements and the many questions swirling around the company and they didnt even let shareholders know there was a private media call and let us listen in.

Again im not worried about the actual company. Most of here know the vin data is telling a completely different story and we all know why Q1 is going to be the way it is. But we're being left out to dry by the company we're supporting with our own money and they're doing nothing right now to defend the share price. Thanks for letting me vent my frustrations guys

I feel your pain but I do not want a buy out - ideally never.

Fact checking says that Tesla has "reliably liquid cooled thermal environment which helps a lot" and he says they are drop-in replacements on the S, X and 3.

Seems that Mongo is saying that the present S and X do not have liquid cooling at the board even though the 3 does. I don't know about the S and X but I do think the board is the same among the present S, X and 3 so whatever today's board requires seems like the new NN chip set should support.

I would like to have confirmation that the S and X do not have liquid cooling in the present board and if that is correct then the term "drop-in" may be overly optimistic for the S and X.... unless the liquid cooling is not required or there can be some other clock speed adjustment that tempers the need for liquid cooling or something else (ie a fan).

To expand on this a bit. It is my expectation that every new design will have a better future model to build toward. Each new design builds on assumptions and they are better in every iteration. S & X may be able to fully support this new NN board but if it becomes 4 NN chips then that probably won't be supported.... probably not even the present 3 but perhaps in the Y (it's a newer design with a better set of assumptions).

OT



You can look yourself at https://epc.teslamotors.com
No coolant line in the cabin, and here is the AP computer:
View attachment 383223

With your avatar and now this - you sure do do get all het up about cooling. Just chill out dude!

 

[electrichapp]

If you believe in TA, close above 282 will make a bullish hammer on the daily chart.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

A big question as to how much more profitable SR+ is than SR is, "is the website correct?" The site lists SR and SR+ as having the same weight. If they're truly the same number of cells, then it's just power seats, extra speakers, and fog lamps. Not that expensive at all, that upgrade would be overwhelmingly profit.

And yeah, all anecdotal evidence I'm seeing is that SR+ is a lot more popular than SR.

The accuracy of the statistics on Tesla website is sometimes questionable. The Performance, LR AWD and LR RWD are all listed 4072 pounds. Which does not make sense, as LR RWD only has one motor.

I checked Tesla China website:
Performance Model 3 is 1875 kg, which is heavier than 4072 pounds (1847kg).
LR AWD is 1874 kg, the same as performance.
LR RWD is 1753 kg

Then there is Wikipedia, screenshot below

Tesla should really make these little things better and clearer. They’ve done the hard parts, don’t leave out these easy ones.

 

[SO16]

Investors should ask themselves if they were a customer, would you rather get to sit in the car at a boutique, or save yourself $2,500 by ordering online?

For me it’s a no brainer, I can use that $2,500 to upgrade to Autopilot.

Or, go to a dealer and take a used Tesla for a test drive. Then say “thanks!” And leave.

Go home and buy online. Payback for all the anti-Tesla rhetoric and prevention in several states.

 

[Unpilot]

I heard a little birdy tell me we are going to finish green today. So I will miss out on my buy at 271...which is fine with me....after all I need to eat.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If anyone knows better, feel free to correct me, but I think Jonas is actually wrong here:

Morgan Stanley says automakers want to sell cars like Tesla does but can't: 'It's against the law'

Other manufacturers can’t legally sell cars the way Tesla *used* to(in self-owned stores), but I don’t believe there’s any legal grounds for a ban on them selling via their websites rather than via a physical store. Such a ban in any state would violate the interstate commerce clause(the ban on self-owned stores arguably doesn’t, as it just prevents them from owning such a storefront within the state). Barring federal laws preventing it, I think Tesla just opened the floodgates for all manufacturers who want to sell directly to customers.