Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Getting back to TSLA…

To HODL or not to HODL: that is the question.
Whether 'tis nobler in the wallet to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous media
Shrieking overvalued bubble!
Or to sell, perchance to buy back lower.
Ay, there’s the rub.
For in that sale what lost gains may come
When we have shuffled off this rocket ship
Must give us pause: there's the respect
That makes calamity of guessing wrong.
Thus greed does make cowards of us all
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of regret
Unless we remember, O Brothers and Sisters
Where the ship is headed.

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential by @FrankSG

 

[AudubonB]

ATH and less than two pages to read overnight on this thread.

~~~And of those two pages, ONCE AGAIN most had little to do with TSLA/Tesla. Go start your own AAPL/Apple thread if you can’t keep to Tesla. There likely aren’t any such, and the internet is quite drivel-starved.~~~

 

[StealthP3D]

Do you remember how when Battery Day happened that some of us were over the moon (not me) about how great the future was for Tesla? There should have been a significant rise in the stock price the next day. There wasn't. Some preached that the Fund managers had to absorb the importance for the stock to rise, but it would come. And it didn't.

It's not just fund managers that take time to absorb information and change their mind about something and act on it - humans, in general, don't naturally work like this. Most humans are not accustomed to absorbing complex information and immediately acting on it with real dollars. It takes time to soak in, ferment, and to assimilate new perspectives and ideas. Not everyone can make the transition from thinking Tesla is an automaker to accepting that Tesla is also a battery manufacturer (amongst other things). Most people don't know enough about Tesla to understand how they use first principles thinking to shorten the path to success and how likely Tesla is to succeed at battery making (and a lot of other things also). It takes time for ideas and new info to rattle around in their brains for a while before they start to understand and develop a new perspective based upon (for example) Battery Day. People are resistant to changing their world view and where everything belongs in that view.

Waves of buying and selling are driven by humans. And may I suggest that their behavior tends to not be very rational and machine like. Because they're humans. Tesla has been on a bull run that was kicked off when the S&P announced inclusion but ALL of the gains are not due to inclusion, that was just the catalyst that kick-started the wave of buying. These things take on a life of their own and you can be sure the info that was disseminated on battery day is kicking in and helping power the wave along with the original driver, inclusion.

It's not productive to try to attribute every movement of the share price to a particular thing or things as if the share price should react to each new piece of information nearly instantly, perfectly rationally and to the degree that thing or things justifies. Stock prices don't behave that way.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I believe the world is moving away from expensive, proprietary devices

Yeah, that's what all the people spreading FUD about Tesla always say. If you actually believed that you wouldn't be invested in Tesla. As much as possible about Teslas is custom built. As inexpensive as possible, but still expensive.

 

[Big Time]

I’m gonna go ahead and stick my head on the chopping block with this brash, naive, hotheaded fanboy estimate that TSLA opens above 600 on Monday morning.

mb if I’m right y’all can chip in and buy Big Time some Tesla short shorts?

 

[Bet TSLA]

It’s as if you don’t understand one thing I wrote.

Yeah, I know what you mean. I don't understand anything about what the TSLAQ folks write either. Same thing, different target.

 

[Tslynk67]

Interesting, not a single new Model S or X in inventory, nothing "in transit", as far as I can see. Delivery date for custom-build in EU is March, in the US 3-5 weeks. I only see 4 CPO cars.

I can only come to two rational conclusions:
- current manufacturing capacity sold-out on existing orders, or
- refresh to be announced mid-December

Edit: two other possibilities:
- no demand, so lines mothballed
- MY demand though the roof (if it didn't fly-off already) and lines converted temporarily (I can't imagine this is possible, but just putting it out there)

 

[Tslynk67]

Just had a sudden realization about robototaxis.

As someone who doesn't really need the extra income, and lives somewhere rural (not exactly an uber service in all these fields) I had always assumed that robotaxi would be useless for me, and people like me, who live in super-low density locations/.
But no.
EVERYONE in my village drives, as we have one bus per day (so yeah...there is ONE guy who uses it, he is the only one), and we all have cars. But actually, there are probably quite a few people using their car maybe once or twice a week maximum. Many are retired, and a lot of us get shopping delivered anyway. So unlike a city where our cars are 90% not being used, here its more like 99% unused...

If I could allow my robotaxi to be used only by a pre-selected list of people, I'd likely do it as a community service. Some old lady who lives a few doors from me and needs the car twice a week to pop to the nearby town to meet her friends... I'm fine with that. Why not?

Everyone focuses on the city-scenario where owning a car is inconvenient and robotaxi is the new uber. Thats true, but robotaxi could also be the new rural-car-club.

I've never used Uber, but is it like Tinder where you swipe through profiles, then choose your ride?

I hasten to add that I've never used Tinder ether...

 

[JBRR]

Tesla’s S&P 500 Debut Is Set to Put $100 Billion in Trades in Motion

"Asset managers and trading desks across Wall Street have held virtual summits to debate the matter. The vote from many appears to be for the two-day option, partly because of Tesla's size, along with the potential for elevated volatility in the stock market........"

"Investors who had shared their opinion with S&P have offered another suggestion that appears to have earned broad support: breaking the trades up over two different quarters, according to people familiar with the discussions.
A longer break between the trades would help asset managers digest any sharp moves related to Covid-19 or other news the market doesn't take well and help keep funds in line with benchmarks, investors said.
"A stepped approach over multiple quarters helps with the liquidity challenges. There's good precedent for it," said Chris Johnson, head of ETF capital markets at Charles Schwab Corp., referring to MSCI's two-phased inclusion of China A-Shares to its emerging-markets index in 2018........"

 

[UkNorthampton]

Yes, this makes sense. If Tesla can deliver on the 40-50% annual growth, Tesla can become a monster if they also manufacture their own parts. They can produce the lowest cost parts at the highest quality, and no one would come close. We also have to remember that robotaxis will displace a large number of personally-owned vehicles, so that also provides a massive squeeze on the competitors. They may never be able to scale up and get their costs down to compete.

When a normal OEM makes a product, they get components, perhaps significant sub-assemblies from suppliers.

Those suppliers are (generally) free to sell to other OEMs, the supplier captures some of the Wright's Law / economies of scale. The suppliers' cumulative parts catalogues get bigger and Catalogue Engineering OEMs have an easier job, both in design and costings - the beancounters can accurately predict costs as suppliers already quote them.

Compare to Tesla, they vertically integrate, design/make their own alloys, tools, production systems, sub-assemblies and cars.

The Catalogue Engineering ecosystem for OEMs hasn't grown with Tesla EV innovation, it can only grow by true supplier/OEM innovation or by ex-Tesla employees. Neither in my view is a big factor for a wide variety of reasons. Tesla has the ability to buy out any true innovation it needs.

Indeed, the Catalogue Engineering Ecosystem (CEE) has shrunk for OEMS, as Tesla have exclusive control of Tesla Grohmann Automation GmbH, Hibar Systems, Compass Automation, ATW Assembly & Test. Indeed CureVac went to Tesla (2016-17?) to ask for continued Grohmann help. I suspect Elon agreed for ethical reasons & Mars colonisation possibilities. History of the Partnership between Tesla & Curevac — It's Older than Covid-19

There must be huge pressure on supplier budgets at the moment, especially R&D. Other OEMs aren't selling much, will be trying to reduce costs. The supplier companies that Tesla want, or the key people can be bought/recruited easily if suppliers are under pressure and as Tesla rises and engineers realise are attracted to a better engineering/mis-management/reward mix.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Chip design is probably one of the hardest yet most important drivers of semiconductor innovation. AMD basically went from hopeless also-ran to runaway leader in x86 because Jim Keller went to AMD and designed the Zen architecture for them. This is the same Jim Keller who worked with the team at P.A. Semi that Apple acquired to design the Apple A6, the "first" Apple ARM chip. It's also the same Jim Keller who designed Tesla's FSD processor core, just so you realize why the HW3 CPU's are so powerful and far ahead of competing self-driving computer designs from Nvidia and Intel/Mobileye.

It's Jim Keller - people are important, engineers are important, which company they work for not as much, only inasmuch as they can provide resources, IP and get out of the way.

 

[Silentk]

This guy has an interesting video on how much fund stock buying there will be related to Tesla S&P inclusion. he thinks there will be about 5.5 million shares bought every day since the announcement, for 42 days (until mid January).

Thanks for that, last five minutes is the main part to listen to. Basically expects price to keep rising until mid-January, current PT of $775

He seems to have a slightly better record than our good friend Gordon ;-)

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla’s S&P 500 Debut Is Set to Put $100 Billion in Trades in Motion

"Asset managers and trading desks across Wall Street have held virtual summits to debate the matter. The vote from many appears to be for the two-day option, partly because of Tesla's size, along with the potential for elevated volatility in the stock market........"

"Investors who had shared their opinion with S&P have offered another suggestion that appears to have earned broad support: breaking the trades up over two different quarters, according to people familiar with the discussions.
A longer break between the trades would help asset managers digest any sharp moves related to Covid-19 or other news the market doesn't take well and help keep funds in line with benchmarks, investors said.
"A stepped approach over multiple quarters helps with the liquidity challenges. There's good precedent for it," said Chris Johnson, head of ETF capital markets at Charles Schwab Corp., referring to MSCI's two-phased inclusion of China A-Shares to its emerging-markets index in 2018........"

I wonder how many previously FUD-ingested/constipated, top of the range turbo-super-turbo-AMD-M=S-R prestige/German car buyers in Wall Street might NOW look into owning a Tesla?

Roadster/Model S Plaid for the alpha-alphas (everyday or weekends) & Model X for big families / chauffeur / gull wings, all sorts of bragging rights. Model 3s for the kids (safety, kid cool), Model Y for the nanny (safety, room and knowing where the car is all the time...), Cybertrucks for the gardeners & rugged manly alpha wolf hobbies.

 

[Speedr117]

Tesla’s S&P 500 Debut Is Set to Put $100 Billion in Trades in Motion

"Asset managers and trading desks across Wall Street have held virtual summits to debate the matter. The vote from many appears to be for the two-day option, partly because of Tesla's size, along with the potential for elevated volatility in the stock market........"

"Investors who had shared their opinion with S&P have offered another suggestion that appears to have earned broad support: breaking the trades up over two different quarters, according to people familiar with the discussions.
A longer break between the trades would help asset managers digest any sharp moves related to Covid-19 or other news the market doesn't take well and help keep funds in line with benchmarks, investors said.
"A stepped approach over multiple quarters helps with the liquidity challenges. There's good precedent for it," said Chris Johnson, head of ETF capital markets at Charles Schwab Corp., referring to MSCI's two-phased inclusion of China A-Shares to its emerging-markets index in 2018........"

If they do spread it out over 2 quarters (unprecedented in S&P history, BTW), then there should be less of a squeeze. This would probably be better for longer term investors since it would be a much slower, more sustained rise in the stock, versus a vertical increase, high volatility, and a potential drop afterwards (a la a short squeeze). We'll find out after close Monday when the S&P committee announces their decision, although I'm sure Wall Street will get a sniff of the news and the price action will tell us during the day if it'll all be done in December or not.

 

[Krugerrand]

A long, long time ago
In a far, far away galaxy
Apple was going to buy Tesla
Then everyone came to their senses
And stopped mentioning it

I miss those days

 

[Krugerrand]

Getting back to TSLA…

To HODL or not to HODL: that is the question.
Whether 'tis nobler in the wallet to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous media
Shrieking overvalued bubble!
Or to sell, perchance to buy back lower.
Ay, there’s the rub.
For in that sale what lost gains may come
When we have shuffled off this rocket ship
Must give us pause: there's the respect
That makes calamity of guessing wrong.
Thus greed does make cowards of us all
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of regret
Unless we remember, O Brothers and Sisters
Where the ship is headed.

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential by @FrankSG

Bloody poetry. Can nobody follow any of the unwritten curtesies of this thread anymore? Though shall not mention Apple and Tesla in the same sentence, though shall not write poetry, etc., etc., Never mind the fact, there is no question. We hold until the sky falls and the shares have to be pried from our cold, dead hands. What is wrong with all you people? This is why we can’t have nice things; every time people get a little bit of money, they lose their ever-loving minds. Not a single one of you is invited to my mountain. Ever.

 

[Singuy]

If they do spread it out over 2 quarters (unprecedented in S&P history, BTW), then there should be less of a squeeze. This would probably be better for longer term investors since it would be a much slower, more sustained rise in the stock, versus a vertical increase, high volatility, and a potential drop afterwards (a la a short squeeze). We'll find out after close Monday when the S&P committee announces their decision, although I'm sure Wall Street will get a sniff of the news and the price action will tell us during the day if it'll all be done in December or not.

So you think. This also opens the door of a "preview" of what happens when fund managers start buying. If it's a big nothing burger around the 12th then okay. If it's insanity with movements of 25-50% then you get the momentum traders/retail/everyone will be throwing everything at tsla preparing for round 2 around the 21st.

So this 2 trench thing may be even worst as people loves free money and bet on sure things.

 

[Speedr117]

So you think. This also opens the door of a "preview" of what happens when fund managers start buying. If it's a big nothing burger around the 12th then okay. If it's insanity with movements of 25-50% then you get the momentum traders/retail/everyone will be throwing everything at tsla preparing for round 2 around the 21st.

So this 2 trench thing may be even worst as people loves free money and bet on sure things.

Agree, but spreading it out over 2 QUARTERS would cause a different dynamic. That's what I was referring to.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Yeah, that's what all the people spreading FUD about Tesla always say. If you actually believed that you wouldn't be invested in Tesla. As much as possible about Teslas is custom built. As inexpensive as possible, but still expensive.

You're right. I should have made clear I meant the phone and computer industry. Tesla operates in a much less mature industry. I wouldn't, for example, support them building a proprietary charging network if industry and governments weren't so slow in building a standard one!

 

[Krugerrand]

If they do spread it out over 2 quarters (unprecedented in S&P history, BTW), then there should be less of a squeeze. This would probably be better for longer term investors since it would be a much slower, more sustained rise in the stock, versus a vertical increase, high volatility, and a potential drop afterwards (a la a short squeeze). We'll find out after close Monday when the S&P committee announces their decision, although I'm sure Wall Street will get a sniff of the news and the price action will tell us during the day if it'll all be done in December or not.

What are you talking about? By definition long term means a long time. Two quarters in this context is not a long time, therefore not long term. Subsequently long term investors don’t actually care if the SP is volatile or not, if there’s a big squeeze or a baby squeeze or no squeeze at all - except perhaps for sheer entertainment value. In conclusion over two quarters is not better for longer term investors. It’s all irrelevant.