Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[asburgers]

Yes, absolutely unhinged and losing his nerve. The statistical model for SP on Jan 15 has almost nothing correlated to the SP on Dec 21 (the day of TSLA's addition).

He should be looking at Dec 11, 18, 24, and 31st models in a 4-D deck. It's the trend up or down that you want to capture, but he's staring at a single point.

IMO, he's just looking for a justification for a decision he already made. Maybe its best that he sells...

Cheers!

You got it! F...you are one smart bugger.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not set it and forget it, obviously within the framework of our existing level of research and TSLA knowledge. I think it's a nice strategy that would allow for one check in a day rather than 12-75 times a day.

Just sat back down and apparently my 12/24 $700c order filled @ $24. Nice. Will likely double down 1-4 times next week if opportunities present themselves at levels even lower.

The point is, what's the point if it greatly under-performs buy and hold and doesn't offer any additional protection to downside risk? In fact, this strategy will ensure the largest position during a lengthy downturn.

Sometimes I wonder where people's heads are at! Even as a complete newbie investor back in the 1980's I didn't hold such naive ideas. The idea is to build wealth. Not to have an outside chance at building wealth.

 

[JustSaying]

One more for good measure:

View attachment 616586

Not a MBA in sight?

 

[Unpilot]

609.99 close...anyone want to step forward with your 610 option that closed today?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Your order for Tesla Tequila has been shipped!

Great news might get it on time for next week’s party!

 

[MXWing]

...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...

Took me all day today to set up short sell positions for the current 500 companies.

Everyone is getting a haircut when TSLA enters in at 5% market cap.

 

[Bet TSLA]

For example. Sell a 550 put, buy a 680 call. Only costs you 6.50/share so your break even on the call is 687 instead of if you just bought the call your break even would've been 742. Back when tsla was about 60/share i sold $49 strike puts to buy $100 strike calls and it cost me nothing.

That's called a collar, I think, of the bullish variety. Seems too low risk for my taste. You get greater safety, but use up a bunch of buying power on the DOTM put you sell. You do this only if you have little confidence in the stock going up in a timely fashion.

"Back when tsla was about 60/share" (old prices, 8 May 2013) you could have done anything bullish and made money. Adopting such a timid strategy at that time probably meant you made way less money than you might have. With less risk of course.

 

[EVortex]

I am within a few hundred thousand $ of hitting my financial goal with TSLA, but I am not ready to be done with so many exciting things on Tesla’s horizon. Thinking about upping my goal and just continuing the HODL strategy. Maybe I should be thinking more about an exit date versus an exit $ amount.

I am sure I am not the only one to be considering these things. Thoughts?

 

[Tyler34]

That's called a collar, I think, of the bullish variety. Seems too low risk for my taste. You get greater safety, but use up a bunch of buying power on the DOTM put you sell. You do this only if you have little confidence in the stock going up in a timely fashion.

"Back when tsla was about 60/share" (old prices, 8 May 2013) you could have done anything bullish and made money. Adopting such a timid strategy at that time probably meant you made way less money than you might have. With less risk of course.

60 dollars post split. TSLA was at $300 (60 post split) last June. And its way more bullish than just selling the put as you describe.

 

[OrthoSurg]

One thing I do most evenings is wait for Lodger's After Hours Action Report to find the day's VWAP. Then I subtract 8% of that price and put a limit buy order for 300 margin shares for the following day (so that's around $50 at today's SP--I like working with round numbers). With your $545 order, that would have exceeded the 10% uptick rule, and I don't think the MMs want to do that, at least from what I've gleaned from this forum, it somehow affects their ability to manipulate the stock the next day or something (I don't have the motivation to figure out exactly why). The low price rarely hits, but when it does it makes for easy accumulation of a few shares. Of course, always be careful, always know what's happening with Tesla and macros and whatnot, be near your computer/internet if/when the trade hits. When you sell is your call, but I usually wait until the SP has appreciated $10-$20 or so, depending on how I feel and all sorts of other subjective, off-the-cuff opinions I might hold at the moment. I never try to "time" the peak of the bounce-back, I'm just happy with a quick $3000-$6000 easy money.

Anyway, just thought I'd share what I do when setting low buy limits. A price too low won't ever likely hit, but appx 8% below the previous day's VWAP happens at least every couple months or so (I don't keep track).

Thanks for sharing
Will start to implement that strategy.
Where do you get you VWAP info?

Thanks for the info

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1337402741723901953

Tesla motors were spotted on Starship. How cool is that!

That has been known for a while - Tesla automotive batteries and electric motors for the flaps. Still cool to see! From April: SpaceX Starship outfitted with Tesla battery packs and motors

 

[Johnny Ma]

I am within a few hundred thousand $ of hitting my financial goal with TSLA, but I am not ready to be done with so many exciting things on Tesla’s horizon. Thinking about upping my goal and just continuing the HODL strategy. Maybe I should be thinking more about an exit date versus an exit $ amount.

I am sure I am not the only one to be considering these things. Thoughts?

I'm in a similar situation and figuring out what to do is harder than it sounds. I could sell today and retire decades before the average person, with a few conservative assumptions. Ultimately, it forced me to do more focused research on the company than I ever have, and I've been pretty much obsessed for years.

I've come up with a number I'd sell my shares for this month and an average growth rate I expect over the next 5 years. I highly doubt even a big S&P inclusion spike will hit my number I'd sell for this month, so I'm expecting to just hold. It's all going to depend on your personal finances, but that's what's helped me work my way through the same problem.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Bought them back, or probably rolled them to next week. The bet was on TSLA not going below 589 by expiration in order to profit.

I may open a position tomorrow, write something like 700's for the 18th. Have to see what the premiums look like. Puts aren't really that useful for this sort of situation, I think, as they cap your winnings. But there may be enough premium in this craziness to justify some kind of bet. Probably something small though.

Well, I decided to open a much smaller position for next week. Near the close I wrote 25 Dec 18 TSLA 690 puts for $95.10. So breakeven is at TSLA $595 next Friday. If TSLA ends the week over 690 I make ~$237K. If TSLA rises dramatically, as I think is likely, this will provide a nice extra. My shares and 12/31 590 and 690 calls will provide the endless bounty if the stock does spike.

I also did a small day trade in TSLA short puts expiring today and made $2200. But overall, of course, down quite a bit on a down day.

 

[corduroy]

Lol.....I can hear a paid CNBC advertisement on the TV in my livingroom. Some guy is talking about lidar-based competitors leapfrogging Tesla in the next 5 years. So good.

It's theoretically possible that a competitor could match where Tesla is now in 5 years, except by the time that 5 years is here, Tesla will then be 15 years ahead of that competitor. There will be no leapfrogging, only getting left further in the dust. You can't catch someone who is already ahead of you and accelerating faster than you.

 

[StealthP3D]

Electic Truck News Flash...

Bollinger Motors updates its electric SUV and pickup ahead of production

Expensive Box. Starting at $125,000.

I want all EV's to succeed but this is such a huge fail I can hardly believe it. These are going nowhere and will actually give EV trucks a bad name. The estimated range of the $125K version is only 200 miles. Around here people love to drive their pickups at 75-80 mph on the highway. The boxy shape will create a huge low pressure area behind the truck and drop that 200 mph range down to around 120 miles or less. If it's cold out, highway range will fall even faster than expected due to air density and terrible aero.

It would be a fun toy for tooling around your 2000 acre Montana ranch. Not so much for the trip into town. The boxy shape is like giving the middle finger to facts. But I guess that is where America is at these days.

 

[ZsoZso]

Toyota will need to fire-up the grill and get to cookin if they want to compete in this space.

But first they need to find some new chefs*!

* one's that know how to cook for a totally different diet than their old ones

 

[Tslynk67]

60 dollars post split. TSLA was at $300 (60 post split) last June. And its way more bullish than just selling the put as you describe.

June 2019 we hit a low of ~$176 pre, $38 post...

 

[EV forever]

For example. Sell a 550 put, buy a 680 call. Only costs you 6.50/share so your break even on the call is 687 instead of if you just bought the call your break even would've been 742. Back when tsla was about 60/share i sold $49 strike puts to buy $100 strike calls and it cost me nothing.

That's called a collar, I think, of the bullish variety. Seems too low risk for my taste. You get greater safety, but use up a bunch of buying power on the DOTM put you sell. You do this only if you have little confidence in the stock going up in a timely fashion.

"Back when tsla was about 60/share" (old prices, 8 May 2013) you could have done anything bullish and made money. Adopting such a timid strategy at that time probably meant you made way less money than you might have. With less risk of course.

No, that is a highly aggressive and risky strategy, definitely not for the timid.

The strategy @Tyler34 is explaining is also called a "synthetic long" - it is a strategy that pays out big if stock goes up, but can get you in serious trouble if stock goes down. Note - he made money with almost no net investment - so returns are extremely high.

The risk - if the stock went down, then the long call that was purchased expires worthless. The put that was sold, if the stock went below the strike, you are on the hook to purchase those shares. When Tesla was $60/share - could be as late as mid 2019 - remember the stock dropped all the way to $40/share in 2019. So, if this was done over 2018 - 2019, worst case scenario - @Tyler34 would have required to buy shares at $49 when the stock had dropped to $40.

 

[Rockster]

...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...

When are they announcing who is being cut?

 

[Tyler34]

No, that is a highly aggressive and risky strategy, definitely not for the timid.

The strategy @Tyler34 is explaining is also called a "synthetic long" - it is a strategy that pays out big if stock goes up, but can get you in serious trouble if stock goes down. Note - he made money with almost no net investment - so returns are extremely high.

The risk - if the stock went down, then the long call that was purchased expires worthless. The put that was sold, if the stock went below the strike, you are on the hook to purchase those shares. When Tesla was $60/share - could be as late as mid 2019 - remember the stock dropped all the way to $40/share in 2019. So, if this was done over 2018 - 2019, worst case scenario - @Tyler34 would have required to buy shares at $49 when the stock had dropped to $40.

This is all correct and explained better than me.