Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Macro news...

Senate passes stopgap funding bill to avert shutdown at midnight - CNNPolitics

Edit to add details:

"The Senate on Friday passed a one-week stopgap funding bill by voice vote to avert a government shutdown at midnight. The bill will next go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

The short-term spending bill would extend government funding by a week to December 18 and is aimed at giving lawmakers more time to reach an agreement on Covid relief and broader funding legislation for a new fiscal year. It passed the House earlier this week.

So far, however, stimulus talks remain at an impasse over critical sticking points, creating uncertainty over whether an agreement can be reached."

See. Exactly how I called it earlier when discussing the current UK ‘omg! deadline approaching’ conundrum. Everybody panic and now look at us, we heroes.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Interesting, for Model S Performance, delivery estimate in Fremont is 8-12 weeks...

That's an odd number. That'd put them right into the 2nd month of the next Quarter. Maybe they're already starting to produce for overseas?

 

[jerry33]

Macro news...

Senate passes stopgap funding bill to avert shutdown at midnight - CNNPolitics

Edit to add details:

"The Senate on Friday passed a one-week stopgap funding bill by voice vote to avert a government shutdown at midnight. The bill will next go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

I guess the Senators needed funds to purchase Christmas presents.

 

[EVortex]

It's likely that they're also armed, especially in Texas and possibly everywhere else too.

Look closely.

 

[Unpilot]

Meh....my coffee still tastes bland....I bet it will be better next week.

 

[wipster]

What's funny is that this could actually be done, even using a reasonable CG likeness of an existing celebrity car-reviewer such as Jay Leno. It would cost a whole lot though. May as well just make a working prototype to review for Jay Leno's Garage.

Could be done, yes.
Should be done, hell no.

I've heard for a couple years how computing power is so good now that a full length movie could be made with no human actors in it (except for voice) and we would never be able to tell the difference. Prolly be able to do voices soon (at least based on my Google assistant that speaks with an Aussie accent and she sounds excellent). But I wouldn't want to see it. Not a CGI rock band (the Neo Beatles?) either. But even now, it's virtually impossible to tell what's real and what's CGI. Wonder what the next decade will bring?

 

[Artful Dodger]

He's shook. Based his analysis on IBKR probability lab which is posterior looking.

Yes, absolutely unhinged and losing his nerve. The statistical model for SP on Jan 15 has almost nothing correlated to the SP on Dec 21 (the day of TSLA's addition).

He should be looking at Dec 11, 18, 24, and 31st models in a 4-D deck. It's the trend up or down that you want to capture, but he's staring at a single point.

IMO, he's just looking for a justification for a decision he already made. Maybe its best that he sells...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

One thing I do most evenings is wait for Lodger's After Hours Action Report to find the day's VWAP. Then I subtract 8% of that price and put a limit buy order for 300 margin shares for the following day (so that's around $50 at today's SP--I like working with round numbers). With your $545 order, that would have exceeded the 10% uptick rule, and I don't think the MMs want to do that, at least from what I've gleaned from this forum, it somehow affects their ability to manipulate the stock the next day or something (I don't have the motivation to figure out exactly why). The low price rarely hits, but when it does it makes for easy accumulation of a few shares. Of course, always be careful, always know what's happening with Tesla and macros and whatnot, be near your computer/internet if/when the trade hits. When you sell is your call, but I usually wait until the SP has appreciated $10-$20 or so, depending on how I feel and all sorts of other subjective, off-the-cuff opinions I might hold at the moment. I never try to "time" the peak of the bounce-back, I'm just happy with a quick $3000-$6000 easy money.

Anyway, just thought I'd share what I do when setting low buy limits. A price too low won't ever likely hit, but appx 8% below the previous day's VWAP happens at least every couple months or so (I don't keep track).

When people post rational, easily executed, and stress free strategies similar in effect to what I'm doing..... it makes me want to punch them in the face. Obviously that's just a combination of jealously and frustration at living my Tesla nutjob reality staring at the ticker 24/7.

Thank you for this, a great model for the way a TMC'ers life should be. Will attempt to transition to something similar.

Edit: *** mod *** Would like to nominate for post of merit thread, to remind us there's an easier way.

This is crazy talk. There is nothing rational about the strategy presented above. I'm not going to waste my time back-checking it but it's obvious it would under-perform hugely compared to simple buy/hold.

Pre-defined trading strategies might appear to be working over the short-term but there are none that can stand up to longer-term scrutiny. But humans will continue to be humans.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting, for Model S Performance, delivery estimate in Fremont is 8-12 weeks...

Interesting indeed. I wonder if there might be a "Christmas Break" shutdown and upgrade on the S/X line (meep, meep...)

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

That's an odd number. That'd put them right into the 2nd month of the next Quarter. Maybe they're already starting to produce for overseas?

The inventory and time-lines for S&X are "odd" everywhere. Not at all normal.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is crazy talk. There is nothing rational about the strategy presented above. I'm not going to waste my time back-checking it but it's obvious it would under-perform hugely compared to simple buy/hold.

Pre-defined trading strategies might appear to be working over the short-term but there are none that can stand up to longer-term scrutiny. But humans will continue to be humans.

Not set it and forget it, obviously within the framework of our existing level of research and TSLA knowledge. I think it's a nice strategy that would allow for one check in a day rather than 12-75 times a day.

Just sat back down and apparently my 12/24 $700c order filled @ $24. Nice. Will likely double down 1-4 times next week if opportunities present themselves at levels even lower.

 

[Tyler34]

Can you explain exactly what you mean. When I sell puts they are naked, cash (and sometimes margin) backed. When I buy calls they are usually naked. Both use buying power. You are talking some kind of more complex combination?

For example. Sell a 550 put, buy a 680 call. Only costs you 6.50/share so your break even on the call is 687 instead of if you just bought the call your break even would've been 742. Back when tsla was about 60/share i sold $49 strike puts to buy $100 strike calls and it cost me nothing.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA +1.8% for the week, and highest ever end of week closing price

 

[mongo]

Yes, absolutely unhinged and losing his nerve. The statistical model for SP on Jan 15 has almost nothing correlated to the SP on Dec 21 (the day of TSLA's addition).

He should be looking at Dec 11, 18, 24, and 31st models in a 4-D deck. It's the trend up or down that you want to capture, but he's staring at a single point.

IMO, he's just looking for a justification for a decision he already made. Maybe its best that he sells...

Cheers!

Did I miss a /s somewhere???

Spoiler: Rant

Da fudge?!?!?
The dude bought $2.7 million in TSLA options, and you're gonna throw shade on him for cashing out 50% of those for a >5x profit?
He is still holding an ~$8 million position! What is the standard for a lack of nerve these days???

 

[PeterJA]

Someone recently posted a video about Cybertruck with a detail that I somehow missed last year:
Tesla Cybertruck will have solar roof option to add 15 miles of range per day - Electrek

That's 100 miles of range per week in sunny California where I live. It's all the charging I would need except for road trips. I could park on the street outside my apartment and not worry about installing a charger, or visiting chargers, or running an extension cord out the window. Do ya think this might appeal to other apartment dwellers? Or homeowners who don't have a big enough garage but do have a driveway or street to park on?

But how many truck buyers live in sunny States?

Your Next Car Will Probably Be an Electric Pickup Truck - Bloomberg

Tesla's energy division is embedding solar cells in glass. Tesla cars have glass roofs. Do ya think tricksy Elon might sometime announce a solar roof option for S3XY?

Elon recently said Cybertruck will be "better than what we showed." Do the people selling TSLA have a single clue what is coming from this vertically integrated innovation machine?

 

[Highway2Heel]

...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...please be Exxon...

 

[Stone_Watcher]

For example. Sell a 550 put, buy a 680 call. Only costs you 6.50/share so your break even on the call is 687 instead of if you just bought the call your break even would've been 742. Back when tsla was about 60/share i sold $49 strike puts to buy $100 strike calls and it cost me nothing.

This works during a %600 bull run.

As a man much wiser than I once said, “It works until it doesn’t.”

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol.....I can hear a paid CNBC advertisement on the TV in my livingroom. Some guy is talking about lidar-based competitors leapfrogging Tesla in the next 5 years. So good.

 

[StealthP3D]

Toyota will need to fire-up the grill and get to cookin if they want to compete in this space.

Are you suggesting Toyota's next EV offering should be another hydrogen vehicle?

On a more serious note, I don't see how how they can compete with Tesla's cost structure. They have too much legacy baggage, both in terms of human resources and manufacturing infrastructure. All of the legacy manufacturers have the same problem.

They can try to pretend they are like Tesla but pretending doesn't work. Here's one example: Polestar has distanced itself from Volvo dealerships. They offer something they call "Polestar Spaces" claiming they are not a "conventional showroom". The nearest one to my house is a leisurely 879 mile drive - about 13 hours - one way! If I hit traffic in Seattle or Portland or a snowstorm going over the Siskiyou's it could be many hours longer. So, they have jettisoned the Volvo dealers, but at what cost? Polestar.com | Spaces. Our farewell to car dealerships.

It's not called "competing with Tesla" if all they are doing is filling orders that Tesla can't.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, did anybody short OXY? (ironic name for a carbon company, wot?)

Cheers!