Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KMCC]

Looks like selling @ $635 dried up. Next stop $640?

Whoever this buyer is, he's really slow and careful about scooping up all last shares available for sale at a certain price point before moving on.

640.81

I say you called that one!!!

 

[Knightshade]

Um, er, what? You're confused. Of course I want to beat whatever I'm benchmarked against. What that means is that my 0 (no win, no lose) is whatever that benchmark does. So before inclusion the benchmark was doing it's thing without TSLA, and after inclusion it is doing it with TSLA. That means that, as a fund manager, having no opinion and going with the flow means owning the same percentage of TSLA as the index. Most fund managers have no opinion and go with the flow on the things they don't understand. Most put TSLA in that category. You can tell because they didn't own any TSLA.

On inclusion day they will want to continue to have no opinion on TSLA. So they'll buy it. That keeps them at 0 variance from their benchmark. These people get fired if they don't manage to do decently against their benchmark. Why would they take unnecessary risks?

You just need to properly understand 0. It's not a constant in this game.

Well, after the pushback from several folks on this I thought about it some more.

As I suggested I think it's just my standards are too high.

If I'm spending $ paying an active fund manager whose fund is benchmarked against a specific index, I expect that manager to take the time to understand one of the single largest elements of that index.

The feedback from yourself and others seems to be they just don't want to bother so they'll simply buy it at exactly index weight so it has doesn't impact their versus-the-index performance at all.


I get the math of why it would do that--- Just not the math of why anybody would pay an active fund manager who can't be bothered to understand the biggest parts of his benchmark fund.



That said- if they did intend to do that- why would they (knowing it was likely to spike this week) not have bought it during the dip LAST week?

Why wait till the week you know you're gonna pay near the highest short-term price for the stock?

That's not just lazy, that's actively dumb.

 

[FrankSG]

Noobie here - I'm not understanding why the SP500 index funds would make their 'TSLA inclusion' buy at any time other than the close on 12/18:

If the index funds are trying to replicate the index exactly, and the index will include TSLA at the closing price on 12/18, then why wouldn't the funds simply make their entire buy at the close on 12/18? Wouldn't that guarantee exact same performance as the index, and thus is the ideal strategy to minimize variance from the index?

Thanks for any light you can shed on this...

I'd guess that the majority will. You are 100% correct that it's the optimal timing for them.

However, looking at big inclusions in the past (TWTR, FB, BRK.B, AMZN, etc.), I also think front-runners will scoop up shares earlier than that, to sell to indexers during the closing cross on the 18th.

 

[FrankSG]

640.81

I say you called that one!!!

Before I made that post, it looked like shares were being bought up every time it dipped below $635, but volume was just getting lower and lower, indicating that there were less and less sellers. Then suddenly volume spiked and it moved up a few dollars. Seemed quite obvious to me what was going on.

 

[Runarbt]

Can I be strange? Many people think so with having a cybertruck load of TSLA.

Wife says I am strange and weird. I'd say that is a given, when normal people have to interact with real Tesla fans.

 

[SarahsDad]

Found this over on Reddit in the comments section by someone who claims to work on the S/X battery line. Looks potentially legit, Plaid staying with the 18650 cells.

View attachment 617428

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor...c_reporting_model_sx_lines_shutting_down_for/

Some more comments from our Tesla employee on Reddit. Very bullish.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm supposed to be working and am transfixed on watching the TSLA ticker. Just coming to TMC to post this is exceedingly difficult.

Is this normal?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some more comments from our Tesla employee on Reddit. Very bullish.


View attachment 617642

Someone please send this to Gordo ASAP!!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm supposed to be working and am transfixed on watching the TSLA ticker. Just coming to TMC to post this is exceedingly difficult.

Is this normal?

It would be abnormal if you were doing work this entire week

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Noobie here - I'm not understanding why the SP500 index funds would make their 'TSLA inclusion' buy at any time other than the close on 12/18:

If the index funds are trying to replicate the index exactly, and the index will include TSLA at the closing price on 12/18, then why wouldn't the funds simply make their entire buy at the close on 12/18? Wouldn't that guarantee exact same performance as the index, and thus is the ideal strategy to minimize variance from the index?

Thanks for any light you can shed on this...

What you're describing is the root problem, there likely won't be enough shares "available" for all the buying to take place at the close Friday. Front-runners have loaded up on shares to sell at the close Friday and will continue to do so(as you can see today). But it's my estimation that even all that slack won't be enough to satiate the mandated appetite for shares.

There's never been an inclusion even remotely this large. And us lunatics are less likely to sell than most other retail investors in previous stocks at inclusion. That's a very dangerous combination.

 

[WattsHappening]

I'm supposed to be working and am transfixed on watching the TSLA ticker. Just coming to TMC to post this is exceedingly difficult.

Is this normal?

+1.

I am finding it very difficult to get any work done.

 

[Runarbt]

+1.

I am finding it very difficult to get any work done.

Work? Doesnt watching the ticker count?

I make more money doing this, than my day-job these days.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Well, after the pushback from several folks on this I thought about it some more.

As I suggested I think it's just my standards are too high.

If I'm spending $ paying an active fund manager whose fund is benchmarked against a specific index, I expect that manager to take the time to understand one of the single largest elements of that index.

The feedback from yourself and others seems to be they just don't want to bother so they'll simply buy it at exactly index weight so it has doesn't impact their versus-the-index performance at all.


I get the math of why it would do that--- Just not the math of why anybody would pay an active fund manager who can't be bothered to understand the biggest parts of his benchmark fund.



That said- if they did intend to do that- why would they (knowing it was likely to spike this week) not have bought it during the dip LAST week?

Why wait till the week you know you're gonna pay near the highest short-term price for the stock?

That's not just lazy, that's actively dumb.

I've made tons of $$ from people that are actively dumb. And the same amount from ones that are almost actively lazy, and that almost makes no sense at all.

 

[vikings123]

It would be abnormal if you were doing work this entire year

There I fixed the typo for you

 

[StealthP3D]

Nobody is right all the time. In the stock market you make money if you are right more than you are wrong. Because of the overpriced MACROS and the 11 year straight bull run coupled with the fact that Tesla at 600 Billion market cap is fairly priced. I would take a lot off the table if I had a lot to take off.

FTFY

 

[phantasms]

Some more comments from our Tesla employee on Reddit. Very bullish.

Very interesting! So what are they doing with the current Kato cells if they're not for the Plaid S? Will we see Roadster sooner than expected? Now that would be a holiday update.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm supposed to be working and am transfixed on watching the TSLA ticker. Just coming to TMC to post this is exceedingly difficult.

Is this normal?

I got the t-shirt. And wear iit only around worthy people...
Normal's NOT Normal.

 

[Unpilot]

This morning my coffee tasted much better.
Now to get past this 640 capping that is going on/S

 

[lafrisbee]

+5%, and not a soul is excited.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

FTFY

When will people learn? Time in the market is better than timing the market.