Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

So, throwing my 2 cents into the speculation well.

If all the tabless cells for the Berlin Y are going to be produced onsite, and Fremont can only do whatever it can with a small pilot line I'd think they're destined to the roadster. Semi will need large volumes and low cost and roadster would lead the way, just like the original roadster did.

I've got speculation on Plaid Model S, but i have been cunning and hid it in another thread:- 4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

What ever they are doing for Plaid Model S, the Roadster may be similar..

I believe Elon in that 4680s are going first into Model Y at Berlin, and then later into Model Y at Austin.

When Berlin and Austin are making their own cells, we will need to see what happens with Kato Rd cells.

I recommend watching Battery Day again, that was a great experience, and I learned a few new things.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Hoping tomorrow starts a thrilling conclusion to this first chapter (in Tesla's epic story).
+/- 3 days should give us an interesting week.
Of course, I thought this would have already started by now but I am a lowly bit player in this production...

 

[Nolimits]

Long first chapter. I was thinking more of conclusion of volume 1. Next up, Volume2 Elon musk, space balls err spaceX and search for more money?

 

[Boomer19]

So, SpaceX may or may not be looking at doing another funding round (source is BusinessInsider, so who know's if it's true). Here's the kicker: this funding round will be at a valuation of $92B. That takes Elon’s net worth up by around $20B, from ~150B to ~170B dollars.

Anyone know what Bezos is worth these days?

i heard rumor of same ~90b but it was about potential ipo next year, not just a funding round. i took with grain of salt
another friend entering into a round now at ~45b, so a double seems unlikely in that timeframe. but let’s see if any more trickles of info come out.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters through Yahoo - this morning: Automakers urge U.S. support for EV charging, R&D, incentives

 

[Boomer19]

Ball bearings. That's what it takes these days,....

it’s all ball bearings

 

[BigPeePee]

At this point, I no longer care about Tesla fundamentals.
I want Saint Elon to be the richest man alive, so I will keep buying TSLA to pump up the price. I don't care if Tesla loses money year over year.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters through Yahoo - this morning: EV Sales May Rise 50% in 2021: 3 Utilities Likely to Gain

 

[lukex4]

According to https://www.etf.com/stock/TSLA there're now 163 ETFs holding TSLA instead of 164 yesterday. So I guess the buying really hasn't started yet...

 

[BigPeePee]

According to https://www.etf.com/stock/TSLA there're now 163 ETFs holding TSLA instead of 164 yesterday. So I guess the buying really hasn't started yet...

If we all agree to keep buying and never sell, TSLA can keep going up even if they never make a profit. Elon Musk will be the first trillionaire.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon: "Perhaps slightly more confident" followed by blather about S-curve ramping.

He's trying to downplay and fudge things here but I ain't buying it.

He should have just answered "yes, I'm definitely more confident" and confessed the S-curve was going to begin earlier than expected.

Construction in Brandenburg isn't proceeding at light speed for no reason.

I disagree. Sandbagging is a good thing. MSFT was famous for it and had perfected it to a fine art-form. The art is keeping it effective even when everyone already knows you are sandbagging. Musk is just now getting the hang of effective sandbagging. By the time Tesla hits peak growth he will have mastered it. Effective sandbagging basically immunizes a fast growing company from many types of bad news. The art of sandbagging does not come easily to someone as inherently honest as Elon Musk so it's a good thing he is a naturally quick study.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

What I really want is for Elon to make a list of TSLA shareholders from oldest since IPO to newest, and for the first few years of tourist packages to the Mars colony, he goes down the list in order and offers the shareholders the first rights to purchase the tickets. I would be pretty far the down the list compared to some of you but I would still be way ahead of the general public.

 

[dc_h]

You lost me there... I thought if open interest declines, the MM's no longer need the shares that covered those calls they had sold, and thus they could sell off those shares, which would cause downward price pressure?

Agreed, but it also means less shares held by MM’s on Friday. So selling pressure today, more buying pressure on Friday.

 

[StealthP3D]

1. Make really good analysis
2. Do the trade for all your capital
3. Post good analysis
4. See market be moved by analysis
5. Profit

If your analysis is accurate, you don't need to move the market to profit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do we know if this requires a special building?

Kato Rd isn't a large building, they did require planning permission to build batteries there.

It still seems like Plan A is to make the batteries for Berlin Model Y in Berlin.

My best (optimistic) guess is they have a chunk of space reserved in a building somewhere, with access to add rooftop equipment as needed.

They are waiting for some result from the Kato pilot line to firm up the paperwork, and start the approval process.

I have to admit, I'm grasping at straws here...

Bty cell manufacturing is almost always done in a dedicated facility. There are MSDS sheets and materials handling that need to be specific for the processes involved. I agree Berlin will build batteries, but recall that Elon said they may be supported by the Kato Rd pilot plant. I think this gets them through initial trial production, and the process of qualifying all the tooling and building the required number of test/sample cars.

I agree that the paperwork for the bty workshop is likely waiting a final design to come out of Fremont. The most obvious issue is water usage. If Tesla can scale the Maxwell dry electrode (DBE) process approriately, it will likely result in a material reduction in the water consumption requirements requested in that permit. I've also seen rumours recently that Tesla is planning their own water pipeline to supply Phase 2+ of the Berlin buildout.

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

OilPrice through Yahoo: How An Obscure 400 Year Old Law Sparked A $5 Trillion Transportation Revolution

Excerpt:

TSLA (NASDAQ:TSLA) might just be one of the hottest stocks in the ESG space. As one of the world’s most innovative car manufacturers, it has single-handedly made going green cool. Its slick design has become all the rage. You would have to go out of your way to not see a Tesla when walking around major cities like San Francisco and Hong Kong.

And CEO Elon Musk hasn’t stopped there. In addition to producing one of the most desirable electric vehicles on the market, Tesla is ramping up its solar game, as well. Tesla’s Solar Roof project aims to change the way houses function. It replaces traditional roofs with stronger, and arguably more aesthetically pleasing, solar panels that can power your entire home. It also comes in as the lowest-cost-per-watt solar option in the American market.

Though Tesla has received some poor marks for its workplace health and safety due to a few incidents of employees feeling overworked and under-appreciated compared to its peers, Tesla scores very high on pollution prevention and corporate governance.

 

[jhm]

Why would this be happening Fri or next week? There was still a fairly massive % of shares short TSLA when inclusion was announced, my assumption is that this run up is half speculation and half short covering. To voluntarily 10x the short position you JUST ESCAPED would be universally recognized as suicide.

Who in their right mind would go down $37B.......and then double down!??!?!? Can't imagine there's a scenario where a significant % of the float acquired by indexes is from shorts. No one's bankrolling such madness in December of 2020.

There's a sucker born every minute. The new baby shorts might think they can time the market. Just as longs think the price could surge as funds bulk up on Tesla, shorts could think the price could tumble thereafter. Everyone has their own fantasy trade.

A former Catholic priest friend of mine used to argue for same-sex marriage on grounds that everybody deserved a ho-hum sex life.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I disagree. Sandbagging is a good thing. MSFT was famous for it and had perfected it to a fine art-form. The art is keeping it effective even when everyone already knows you are sandbagging. Musk is just now getting the hang of effective sandbagging. By the time Tesla hits peak growth he will have mastered it. Effective sandbagging basically immunizes a fast growing company from many types of bad news. The art of sandbagging does not come easily to someone as inherently honest as Elon Musk so it's a good thing he is a naturally quick study.

Ahhh....got,it now! This is what Gordo was referring to when he said ‘All of the street estimates are intentionally sandbagging Tesla deliveries so that Tesla beats them’

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, throwing my 2 cents into the speculation well.

If all the tabless cells for the Berlin Y are going to be produced onsite, and Fremont can only do whatever it can with a small pilot line I'd think they're destined to the roadster. Semi will need large volumes and low cost and roadster would lead the way, just like the original roadster did.

Why couldn't the Plaid S lead the way? It seems much further down the development pipeline, and we know the planned capacity of 10GWh/yr at Kato Rd will fully support S/X production (90K/yr) with 4680 cells. To me, this seems like a higher priority than Roadster, which will always be a low volume product (5-10K/yr).

Semi is the opposite of low volume. It seems to me they need to build an assembly plant first before they go into volume production. 10K Semi / yr is 10 GWh of batteries (if they build all LR Semi's). Elon stated during the reveal in 2017 that the target market for Semi would be about 100K/yr. That's 100GWh/yr, and needs its own Bty Plant with five 4680 cell lines w.Tesla nameplate 20GWh/yr. That's a lot of logistics. I think they have to do it in Texas, if that's where the Semi production line goes.

Mind you, there's no reason that a small run of say 500 Semi's couldn't be mostly handbuilt in Fremont or even Sparks. 500 LR Semi's need 500 MWh of bty cells which would less than 3 weeks of cell production once Kato Rd is running at capacity (planned 10GWh/yr). And the cell draw for Semi could be done over the production of the Semi, say a few months to a year for the first batch. Tesla does need to move quickly though, customers are patient but won't wait forever. I expect Semi to be the 2nd large plant built at Giga Texas.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like Big Auto is indeed looking for an EV lifeline/handout..Auto industry wants more government support for electric vehicles

As if on cue, we have your subsidies right this way Detroit......

Biden Plans To Nominate Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm As Energy Secretary

Don't know anything about her, but this smells pretty middle of the road to me. In energy, middle of the road means status quo wins. Unions and GM should be doing backflips.