Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

That's the goal, buy 120M shares or so. It's been mentioned here a few times.

Agreed, the interesting part is that it is being mentioned on the evening news. I was surprised it is being mentioned as an event to pay attention to.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Dec 17, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Spikes to ATH Close on D-2"

Traded: $36,191,543,727.51 ($36.19B)
Volume: 56,335,232
VWAP: $642.43

Close: $655.90 / VWAP: 102.11%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $550 (N/C since Wed)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $621.728B / $214.637B = 289.66%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $556.90B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $377.15B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.9% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 40.6% (46th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.94% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @HG Wells "My psychic or psychotic self says we cross 650 today."

Comment: "10-Min Closing Cross Vol:5.15M VWAP:$656.11 Traded:$3.38B"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Actually, given the level of cooperation from Tesla they got, I can imagine it has to do with design changes in the cybertruck and a desire to have the toys be as accurate as possible.

and yet ifnthey put the model out as the "original" cybertruck it should sell very well because it would become a collector's item upon release. And then they make another wave of the next version....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

After-action Report: Thu, Dec 17, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Spikes to ATH Close on D-2"

Traded: $36,191,543,727.51 ($36.19B)
Volume: 56,335,232
VWAP: $642.43

Close: $665.90 / VWAP: 102.11%​

​

Close was $655.90, no?

 

[lafrisbee]

I read on here that funds needing more shares after buying from the closing cross event Friday will most likely try to secure more shares on Monday's Closing Cross.
First, how many shares is the "guess" for closing cross for Quadruple Witching Friday's closing cross?

And then I have an issue with what will be the amount of closing cross shares offered for purchase on Monday. It seems to me that if a seller was interested in a closing cross transaction they'd put their shares in on Friday? It seems like they are only doing closing cross on Friday to make it a stable interaction between the stock price that the S&P deems and the price the shares are transferred. In other words it just seems like closing cross will make the books nice and tidy while adding TSLA for the S&P 500 Index Funds. Nothing more.

So when Monday morning rolls around the dirty bookkeeping starts? And it isn't going to make the book tidy by buying at closing cross on Monday, is it? So Index funds won't wait? And anyone with a share to sell is going to sell during the day if the price is right.
Only the odd nutter will decide at the end of the day, "I don't want to go to bed owning TSLA. I'll just dump it into closing cross and be done with it."

Here again, remember I am just thinking...and then with a non-institutionalized brain. There might be advantages to a retailer selling at a closing cross. I've asked for help trying to understand why a normal bloke would put his shares up for offer in a closing cross, and the answers I got were nonsensical for the seller....unless the roof gets blown off the top going in to the final minutes.

 

[MP3Mike]

For people trying to figure out how many shares a fund might need to buy, I did a little more digging on Vanguard. Their S&P500 fund is ~$620B so they need ~$9.3B of TSLA. (at a 1.5% weight) Their Extended market fund is currently holding ~$6B of TSLA. So they can sell at market close between their funds more than half of what the S&P500 fund needs. (More than I thought.)

But that still leaves another ~$3B of TSLA that they will have to find elsewhere.

 

[JRP3]

The Rob and Rich Lee discussion

 

[MP3Mike]

I read on here that funds needing more shares after buying from the closing cross event Friday will most likely try to secure more shares on Monday's Closing Cross.

I assume you meant the Monday Opening Cross...

 

[Sudre]

Eh, I don't think they can do anything directly to Overlord Musk, even if they personally hated him. Hard to write legal law and say, "Blessings upon all renewable companies... except for Elon Musk, that guy."

Same for Tesla as a whole. They may be able to squirrel some limiting language in, such as for price for cars to get incentives, but can't name dump Tesla. In the end of the day, Tesla is a renewable company, from the ground up. Their goal is to accelerate the transition to renewables, even if it's not them directly.

A very small thought in the back of my head is they decide Tesla is a monopoly (paid for by special interest, Dealer associations and the BIG three) and they break Tesla up (battery, solar, car) and force franchised dealerships. You have to notice all the car photo ops with Biden never include a Tesla.... the most American made car in the US.

It is a very tiny thought. Not even a true concern but just something you put down when brainstorming 'what can go wrong'.

My hope is the BIG three want to get rid of their franchised dealerships and they work to find ways to buy them out with assistance from the political side. I don't know if they can make it with stealerships. Even tho I have thought about getting a different makers EV to spread the wealth a bit, I just can not bring myself to walk into a place that seems more like a Mafia casino.

 

[Navin]

Hi - I just received this msg from my brokerage.. does this have something to do with S&P Inclusion:
Can someone explain to me what this means in layman's terms?

"We are writing to let you know about an important change regarding tax reporting for short options that may affect the account(s) you hold with us.

Beginning this year (tax year 2020), we are implementing a change to remove wash sale reporting on short options. All tax reporting for short options will be completed using the original sale price and subsequent closing transactions, expirations, or resulting assignments without making any adjustments for wash sales.

Around December 19, 2020 this reporting change will be applied retroactively for all transactions in tax year 2020 and may result in changes to your portfolio information (e.g., updated purchase dates and prices to reflect the original trades) and your taxable gains and losses. To understand how this might affect your specific tax situation, we encourage you to consult a tax advisor. "

 

[Tim S]

Thanks for the replies and advice, everyone.

Agastya -- I will prob put a sell limit order on. Was thinking the same thing, but of course, I could always get too aggressive and miss it.

MikeC -- TD did seem to indicate there's a type of "do not exercise" order I can give, but he made it sound not ideal. But yea, the ideal they would sell IN ADVANCE without me knowing is why I wanted to put the warning out there. At least so that people are aware.

And, Tim S, that does seem how it might work. And then my cash call is to sell my other TSLA shares, to buy these ones. Which would basically be a wash, unless the stock were to drop. Though, conversely, I suppose the stock could pop and I'd get a nice bump.

Well, let's hope stock shoots up enough tomorrow such that I have this problem!

Thanks, all.

Yes, one reason I keep letting the calls exercise is that TSLA frequently pops Monday morning.

 

[CanadaEV]

I don't know the answer, but putting this out there; in case useful or someone can help.

Limit sells on closing - where you specify a minimum price to sell at vs market sells/buys.

The closing cross seems to attempt to get the maximum number of shares traded & the price goes up/down in order to bring them in.

Sellers could have a mix of limit & best/market sells.I wonder if having a ladder of limit sells could raise closing cross price in a squeeze? Most buys by indexers would not have max prices attached, so they buy at whatever the closing cross price is.

So potentially buy demand is inelastic (on the special day of Friday 18th) but sell supply is elastic depending on price.

Overall, I haven't a clue. For me, I have a 2.5 hour window each day to decide (UK trading/broker restrictions). In general I am full-on HODL, but I have use for some money soon - but only if TSLA spikes, even then not too bothered as I believe it will look cheap in the mid-term future. My pure guess is that Monday will be the higher price as demand not satisfied on Friday close. Not advice, I'm clueless & likely wrong.

I believe your scenario does make a lot of sense. Actually, it might be possible on both the buy and sell sides. Both could create elasticity by entering multiple offers within an extremely limited time frame because there can be only one closing price, and therefore only one of many offers could be executed. I assume the closing price is worked out in a matter of milliseconds by computer algorithm.

What probably makes the best sense for both buyers and sellers is for all buyers to have limitless (market) offers, and for sellers to offer their greatest quantity of shares at the highest price they believe to be obtainable. There seems to be incentive here for collusion on the seller side, i.e. communicating a target price. However a 'ladder' of sell offerings, from fewer to greater quantities, graduated by elevating price, might garner the greatest success.

Assuming that these closing trades will be extremely large buy/sell offerings, it would be likely that by the closing instant, plenty would remain open past the day-end reconciliation, yielding potential for a spike on Monday.

It definitely seems the sellers would be in the drivers seat, and the buyers with limitless (market) offers would coalesce around the highest sell offers, providing those sell offers could be arranged to represent the greatest quantities.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They are basicly saying yeah, we should be upgrading this much further, but "winter competition is coming" and there could be a demand problem, so we aren't going to yet.

Yeah, "Batteries Not Included" in the fine print...

Cheers!

 

[kengchang]

Hi - I just received this msg from my brokerage.. does this have something to do with S&P Inclusion:
Can someone explain to me what this means in layman's terms?

"We are writing to let you know about an important change regarding tax reporting for short options that may affect the account(s) you hold with us.

Beginning this year (tax year 2020), we are implementing a change to remove wash sale reporting on short options. All tax reporting for short options will be completed using the original sale price and subsequent closing transactions, expirations, or resulting assignments without making any adjustments for wash sales.

Around December 19, 2020 this reporting change will be applied retroactively for all transactions in tax year 2020 and may result in changes to your portfolio information (e.g., updated purchase dates and prices to reflect the original trades) and your taxable gains and losses. To understand how this might affect your specific tax situation, we encourage you to consult a tax advisor. "

Has nothing to do with TSLA

 

[woodisgood]

Hi - I just received this msg from my brokerage.. does this have something to do with S&P Inclusion:
Can someone explain to me what this means in layman's terms?

"We are writing to let you know about an important change regarding tax reporting for short options that may affect the account(s) you hold with us.

Beginning this year (tax year 2020), we are implementing a change to remove wash sale reporting on short options. All tax reporting for short options will be completed using the original sale price and subsequent closing transactions, expirations, or resulting assignments without making any adjustments for wash sales.

Around December 19, 2020 this reporting change will be applied retroactively for all transactions in tax year 2020 and may result in changes to your portfolio information (e.g., updated purchase dates and prices to reflect the original trades) and your taxable gains and losses. To understand how this might affect your specific tax situation, we encourage you to consult a tax advisor. "

Basically, they are abdicating themselves from designating wash sales, putting the onus completely on you or your tax professional. This makes sense from brokerage standpoint because 1) wash sale rules with respect to options are murky and 2) they don’t know your trades outside of the account you hold with them.

Nothing to do with S&P. Just a change more and more brokerages will probably make now that frequent options trading has become more common for their retail customers. I expect at some point the IRS will expand and clarify wash sale rules for options.

 

[lafrisbee]

I assume you meant the Monday Opening Cross...

I didn't. But I can see how that might be the first chance to get more shares. And yet all my questions still remain... where are the sellers going to come from after quadruple witching/closing cross on Friday? If seller wasn't thinking of doing closing cross on Friday then he wouldn't do it afterwards.

OK, perhaps if the SP went up after closing cross enough then there might be a few that would decide to do opening cross...but come on. The mindset would be to sell in the market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Order book looking pretty balanced.

View attachment 618569

Can you determine the 'Offer' price for that steep wall on the right? It looks like it might be sell limit orders for around $717 but it'd be good to know the exact value. TIA.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Lets just say the price is set to be 650. With over 100 million shares being bought at this price level, does this act like a strong support when it comes to technical or it doesn't matter?

 

[ZsoZso]

There was a lot of discussion on this thread about big boyz doing naked shorting to manipulate the stonk, and how the split implementation by Tesla via dividend-stock had them dragged by the balls through the mud and so on.

Question:
Isn't it feasible for the powers-that-be to use naked shorting to satisfy any lack of shares that show up during the closing cross tomorrow ? Effectively eliminating any chance of a runaway squeeze on Monday to satisfy the appetite of index fund that came up short of their goals ? Just a nasty thought that crossed my mind...

 

[Big Time]

Well I can’t say I’m not nervous.

I know Tesla will eventually be a trillion dollar company, but when!

I remember 2016-2019. And some(most?) here remember even further back. Your patience has paid off. Congratulations too those who held. And even to those who didn’t, congratulations for being a part of this. At the cross roads in my life. I’m worried about the next two years. Just don’t want the stock to go stagnant for long time. I think Covid has exaggerated how bad things could be. Need not to worry. Hopefully coming out of it. Been working in AV/entertainment 10 years. 10 months no work, but got one SUPER gig lined up first part of next year. If I would have worked all last year and this stock did what it did, I would be sitting pretty. Work will return, I’m not poor/screwed by any means, I just know what it could be like, and don’t want to do without any longer.
I want out of my living situations. Stock price has gotta double for me to live comfortably and put my self in a nice neighborhood. Otherwise what I could do right now is bad neighborhood and fix Er up Er.

damn life.....

Bout to Pick up my geetar and sell my soul to the devil.

Would you kind souls give me a stock price target for End of Q1 and end of Q2.