Lets just say the price is set to be 650. With over 100 million shares being bought at this price level, does this act like a strong support when it comes to technical or it doesn't matter?
640-650 is already a support point based on the shares traded at this level. Whatever the closing price tomorrow is will not matter much technically, unless you’re a robot. If it’s, let’s say, 720, a smart chartist will discount the volume at that level because it’s a forced trade that takes shares out of play. Those buyers are not looking to sell higher, or recoup losses if it goes lower, so I wouldn’t consider 720 support in that scenario.
I see 640 as good support, but the actual closing price tomorrow to be very strangely meaningless because of the nature of the trade.
As everyone has figured, the unmet demand after the closing cross is where it’s at. With this much buying needed, an imbalance of a few million shares either way could tip things substantially come Monday. I think there’s a 60-40 chance that the imbalance is to the buy side, hence the price will increase. But I’m pretty well hedged in case that’s not the outcome.
That pop at the close was too much to ignore, and I sold tranches of 680-700-720 12/18 calls from a mark of 654-658 to cover all my positions (entirely calls in the trading acct). If we end up over 720 tomorrow, I’ll basically liquidate my entire trading port and buy shares. If we end up at 750 and I’ve left a (very) substantial sum on the table, I’ll try to console myself with my reasoning in this post.
As always, not an advice, but I’m starting to transition out of highly leveraged <1 year positions into non-margined shares.