I'll be back in a jif. Gotta go do my 93 million mile (O/W) annual maintenance duty.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
jhm
Well-Known Member
Good question. 50% is the long-term annual growth rate that Musk aims to maintain, whether unit sales or revenue. Not every year will hit this target, but it does seem to work out over longer time horizons. This year was a break out year in terms of profitability and free cash generation, so as a shareholder, I'm willing to over look that unit growth was not quite up to target. Growth in 2021 very well could make up for this slowness in 2020.
Edit. Specifically, if Tesla sells 827k units in 2021 it will have maintained a CAGR of 50% since 2019. Tesla looks to have built out enough production capacity over the last year to exceed this 827k level. A big part of the discipline around 50% annual growth is planning out capacity growth years in advance.
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Maybe while you’re there turn down the output a teeny bit. Buy us a little time.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
WHAT, you will ruin my Canadian Orange grove !
I have an ancient gem for you guys 
"Tesla's broke. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, is broke. Now Musk is traveling the country, hat in hand, begging for cash in a series of secret, closed-door meetings. One unimpressed insider shared this exclusive, behind-the-scenes look with us."
Inside the Secret $178 Million Tesla IPO Presentation (jalopnik.com)
"Tesla's broke. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, is broke. Now Musk is traveling the country, hat in hand, begging for cash in a series of secret, closed-door meetings. One unimpressed insider shared this exclusive, behind-the-scenes look with us."
Inside the Secret $178 Million Tesla IPO Presentation (jalopnik.com)
I think they announced P&D today so then S/X refresh will gets more time to shine tomorrow or Monday.
Someone with a Twitter account should save Elon from dying on Mars by pointing out that someday, that fusion reactor in the sky will stop working.
Would be a pretty amusing move for sure.....late Sunday night....."And here's one more thing"
So early in the year and already I'm confused. With WHAT, @Green Pete, of the above can you possibly be in disagreement?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I'm a little alarmed by the singularity of focus on auto production when we are all aware that Tesla is much more than just an automaker. In the end, valuation depends upon revenue growth and profit margins and it doesn't care that much exactly where it comes from. Solar and energy has the ability to greatly increase revenues and FSD and auto-bidder has the ability to greatly transform profit margins.
So, it's really about batteries and software, more so than cars.
I’ve noticed some interesting year end decisions that may have artificially reduced 2020 numbers in exchange for supercharging 2021 volume.
Q4 2020 production (509,737) more than 10,000 over deliveries (499,550). Stockpiling?
Elon opened MIC Model Y online ordering on New Years Eve with 30% price drop, rumored over 100,000 orders, then started shipping just hours after midnight Jan 1.
.
There were hundreds of MY already on the lot - why wait until Jan 1?
Elon’s relatively low intensity year end email push.
Imminent MS refresh (Plaid?) announcement
Giga Shanghai at 550,000 capacity by end of 2021 (250,000 now). Tesla Giga Shanghai Production Capacity To Hit 550,000 In 2021
50% YOY growth would be 750,000 deliveries in 2021. But Q4 2020 was already a run rate of 722,280 (180,570 X 4).
I think this artificially supercharged start to 2021 tells me he’s reaching higher - 1,000,000 in 2021. Wow.
Q4 2020 production (509,737) more than 10,000 over deliveries (499,550). Stockpiling?
Elon opened MIC Model Y online ordering on New Years Eve with 30% price drop, rumored over 100,000 orders, then started shipping just hours after midnight Jan 1.
There were hundreds of MY already on the lot - why wait until Jan 1?
Elon’s relatively low intensity year end email push.
Imminent MS refresh (Plaid?) announcement
Giga Shanghai at 550,000 capacity by end of 2021 (250,000 now). Tesla Giga Shanghai Production Capacity To Hit 550,000 In 2021
50% YOY growth would be 750,000 deliveries in 2021. But Q4 2020 was already a run rate of 722,280 (180,570 X 4).
I think this artificially supercharged start to 2021 tells me he’s reaching higher - 1,000,000 in 2021. Wow.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This represents global number of cars sold in 2019. I post it to put into context where Tesla sits and in particular to demonstrate the size of the 'pie' that Tesla can eat. When the 2020 figures are produced Tesla will have overtaken JLR. In 2021 Tesla should have risen to 20th position and will have overtaken Tata Motors and Volvo. Onwards and upwards.
I think most, almost all, automakers on that list will experience shrinking sales in both 2020 and 2021 when compared to 2019. This means Tesla will move up the list more quickly than your analysis indicates.
Holy did anyone read these?
"Led by Wall Street giants Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, 50 top investment banks provided financial services to sectors driving mass extinctions and biodiversity loss worth more than the GDP of Canada in 2019, the analysis found."
The world's banks must start to value nature and stop paying for its destruction
Banks lent $2.6tn linked to ecosystem and wildlife destruction in 2019 – report
The first article is written by the head of the IPCC between the late 90's early 00's. From one of the reports linked to in the 2nd article:
- Report at Portfolio Earth | Bankrolling Extinction
"Led by Wall Street giants Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, 50 top investment banks provided financial services to sectors driving mass extinctions and biodiversity loss worth more than the GDP of Canada in 2019, the analysis found."
The world's banks must start to value nature and stop paying for its destruction
Banks lent $2.6tn linked to ecosystem and wildlife destruction in 2019 – report
The first article is written by the head of the IPCC between the late 90's early 00's. From one of the reports linked to in the 2nd article:
- Report at Portfolio Earth | Bankrolling Extinction
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chronopublish
2008 Roadster #VP27
Yeah, something's wrong with the IPO system: no retail investor can ever buy shares at that price.
My CAGR is based on TSLA's Closing Price on it's first day of trading, July 2nd 2010.
Retail HODL'rs actually COULD have those gains. Paging @Krugerrand and a few others I think...
Cheers!
Original Roadster owners were invited to the IPO. I still have my shares. The numbers are beyond all human comprehension at this point.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Oh my, I really screwed it up with between 600% and 2500% on various accounts
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I think they held back the Model Y in China to also help with the typically weak Q1. Also, it is unusual for them to produce more than they delivered in Q4. I think they purposely held back once they knew they were close to 500K.
My wife got me this program for Christmas, I haven't tried it yet (I forgot my sign in info).Do you have any tips for improving one's long-term memory? Because I'm having trouble remembering that long ago!
BrainHQ from Posit Science
That's why I bank at Charles Schwab, who doesn't lend to fossil fuel Neanderthals (or anyone else), and
good enough for free ATM, check writing, and $0 stock trades. Except, well old Chuckie is a Republican, but of the never-Trumper variety, hopefully.
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