Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

A shock for every incumbent but I am not sure if they even understand what just happened.

The supercharger network is one of the Tesla Crown Jewels that the incumbents still not fully understand in the effect on consumers.

Pretty amazing.

Given how the European incumbents are hyping 350 kW charging in their FUD? I think they know exactly what Tesla just did to them.

The Americans and Japanese, OTOH...

 

[Hock1]

Does that include America's favorite recreational drug/intoxicant, alcohol?

Sorry. I'm just jumping in the middle here, don't know if it's been mentioned, but I distinctly saw and heard Elon in an interview saying that it was not pot that he was smoking. Said he'd never smoked pot or "anything else" for that matter. Said he wouldn't know how to. What was that all about? Anyone?

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting Feb. stats from the Netherlands.

Hyundai Motor Group combined EV sales the leader by far [736 total].
Also, Tesla Model 3 dominating the compact upscale sedan category:

1 – Tesla Model 3 – 472
2 – Mercedes C-Class – 411
3 – Volvo S/V60 PHEV – 301
4 – BMW 3-Series – 169
5 – Audi A4 – 131

Source EV Sales: Netherlands February 2019
by way of insideevs.com

So 60% of Norway's February figures. Germany was, what, 120% of Norway? So 2,8x Norway as a base for February.

Now that deliveries are apace, Norway did 641 cars this week. If the ratio holds, then these three countries alone are doing about 1800 per week.

(This is, of course, a very crude way to estimate).

 

[Zaxxon]

Hot off the presses--SR now showing 6-8 week delivery, and SR+ 2-4 weeks.

 

[anthonyj]

Hot off the presses--SR now showing 6-8 week delivery, and SR+ 2-4 weeks.

I feel a little more confident now

 

[Artful Dodger]

WIth a speed limit of 90 km/h, the difference between 120 kW and 250 kW is actually quite small - at least until you get your tow bar.

For a LR RWD, the effective traveling speed when actually driving 90 km/h and when charging at 120 kW is 83 km/h, and if the charging power is increased to 250 kW, the effective traveling speed goes up to 87 km/h. (The difference up to the 90 km/h is basically cut in half by doubling the charging power).

So while I hope that Iceland (and everyone else) get v3 Supercharging, places with low speed limits would suffer the least from not getting them. This would include Norway, that has rather few stretches with highways.

It follows that Germany would benefit the most from v3.

If the actual driving speed for a LR RWD is 180 km/h, then the effective traveling speed is 123 km/h with 120 kW charging. Increasing the charging power to 250 kW increases the effective traveling speed to 148 km/h, so a significant difference.

For higher driving speeds the difference in charging power has greater effect.

With 120 kW charging a driving speed of 192 km/h minimizes the sum of driving and charging (for an effective traveling speed still at 123 km/h), while with 250 kW charging the LR RWD would have to drive at full speed (around 235 km/h) to minimize the sum of the driving and charging time (for an effective traveling speed of 160 km/h).

Since Tesla seems to itch to give the Tesla smack down to especially the Germans and their ICEs I would not be surprised to see the v3 deployed liberally along the Autobahn. That will really hurt the Germans, to be overtaken by Teslas on the very Autobahn that they have kept speed limit free exactly to provide a market for their expensive German cars.

Cool. Now that we have the charging curve, does your formula allow you to calculate the optimal speed to cover a given distance (including charging time) in the minimum time?

Cheers!

 

[lklundin]

Master list store closings

View attachment 383910

Where does this list come from?

 

[lklundin]

Assuming the 18650's are using the same chemistry as the 2170's how many other components would need to be improved in order for the S&X to take advantage of the SuC v3 increased charge rate? The only thing I've heard mention of is undersized wiring. What else would need to be upgraded?

As others have mentioned I think there's a possibility of this being the one more thing on Pi day. With the release of the SuC v3 it would only make sense to upgrade their premium offerings to enable them to take advantage of them. The other hint is the price cuts. Tesla does not appear to have a big demand issue with the S&X's so why would they drastically reduce the prices? I think it's to clear out the current inventory of legacy parts and finished product. It also reduces hurt feelings for recent purchasers who might be angry for missing out on the upgrade. I say this because I expect the upgraded S&X's to be priced higher, possibly back to where they were before the recent cuts. Your thoughts?

The higher battery capacity (90/100 kWh) implies a lower charging rate, which would help.

 

[Chop110]

The top rated comment on that thread. The link is to this picture:

The background is the same.. so it definitely looks like a photoshop mash-up

Why do people do that? I don’t get it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hot off the presses--SR now showing 6-8 week delivery, and SR+ 2-4 weeks.

Nice!

In other news: Model S Standard Range "estimated delivery" is still listed as "Late February".

Must mean late February 2020.

The German Model S/X configurator was updated today: all Model S/X deliveries of all configurations are now marked "beginning in May".

 

[bhtooefr]

Why do people do that? I don’t get it.

It boils down to attention.

 

[Duffer]

That's a good analogy, but what I would like to know is if applies to the SR battery pack. If they can now increase range to 75 miles in 5 minutes, would it be possible to almost fill the pack in 15 or 20 minutes? If so that's earthshaking! I don't think I could go to the restroom and get a pop in that amount of time. Plus, it takes longer to fill up at Costco as you typically have to wait in line.

Any thoughts?

Using the current (V2) charging graphs of the SR, MR, and LR I'm sure that the V3 charging rates/taper can be extrapolated from the M3 beta graphs. Though I will leave that to the engineers on this board to do.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Nice!

In other news: Model S Standard Range "estimated delivery" is still listed as "Late February".

Must mean late February 2020.

The German Model S/X configurator was updated today: all Model S/X deliveries of all configurations are now marked "beginning in May".

I was actually waiting on someone to follow the estimated delivery dates of the S/X across the different countries/markets.

Just sayin...….if the S/X delivery dates all started getting pushed back...……….you guys can guess what I'm about to say

 

[electracity]

f they can now increase range to 75 miles in 5 minutes, would it be possible to almost fill the pack in 15 or 20 minutes?

Not even close. Charging is much slower after 50%

 

[wipster]

Using the current (V2) charging graphs of the SR, MR, and LR I'm sure that the V3 charging rates/taper can be extrapolated from the M3 beta graphs. Though I will leave that to the engineers on this board to do.

Thanks Duffer, that's what I was thinking too. It will be interesting to see V3 in action on all 3 (4) packs on the M3.... soon I would think.

 

[KarenRei]

Nice!

In other news: Model S Standard Range "estimated delivery" is still listed as "Late February".

Must mean late February 2020.

The German Model S/X configurator was updated today: all Model S/X deliveries of all configurations are now marked "beginning in May".

Here's the truck they're going to use to haul the "February delivery" Model S cars to their destination at 88 miles per hour:

I understand that the cargo will be providing the 1,21 GW power required

 

[wipster]

Not even close. Charging is much slower after 50%

That much depends upon what your definition of "much" is...

(Not as good as Clinton, but worth a shot!)

 

[ZachF]

I have worked with many companies across many industries. The large auto OEMs are notoriously difficult to work with. In fact, I know some companies refuse to work with them. They will yell that the floor is wet but ignore that the roof is leaking. They are not focused on the correct things. This is what led me to Tesla. I knew if another car company emerged, the traditional OEMs would be in big trouble. And then I drove a Model S. And that is when I started buying stock.

The Innovators dilemma is real.

Look at how the landscape changed in the phone market.

When Phones went to cell phones, almost all of the top players changed.
When Cell Phones became Smart Phones, almost all of the top players changed.

 

[oneday]

This might explain the insane VIN allocations as well.

My guess w/r/t the huge vin allocations has to do with buffers for every country they sell to. So before 85% worked when it was US only, now we have US, China, EU, Norway, and Switzerland. Anywhere else?

 

[kyzhk]

Correction to my previous post about last update date of delivery information in embedded javascript - I pointed to the wrong file (didn't trace all the way down to the specific javascript section).

The delivery information is embedded in the javascript in main index returned from nginx

Data is embedded in this section:
<script type="text/javascript">
window.tesla = {json data here, including delivery information}

Unfortunately this file is generated dynamically from server side so we don't know when Tesla updates it.