Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

I just followed some links to see cost of TV advertising campaigns. YIKES. I think I may have changed my mind.

Looks like a good time for another Project Loveday

Tesla’s ‘Project Loveday’

Might be nice if it was started and run without Tesla needing to directly get involved.

Personally, I’m thinking something along the lines of “we’re here already” highlighting what the two week period we are within is doing to demonstrate how clear a winner a well done EV like Tesla is today for such a large portion of new car buyers (and dispelling several outdated concerns).

So many Tesla YouTubers (so many having been rewarded with new Roadsters coming their way), maybe they could help get this off the ground.

 

[bhtooefr]

Thought on the noise issue:

"Noise is a form of energy, and the less you hear, means the more you use in propulsion. It's sexy, this sound. Sex has nothing to do with screaming sound - people believe that, but others make it more quiet, but more sensitive."

...of course, that was an Audi racing engineer, talking about a diesel engine, but never mind that - it works for EVs even better.

Thought on the security clearance issue: No security clearance needed for Tesla, ergo not material to Tesla, ergo offtopic.

Thought on the test drive issue: Don't forget roadshows, something Tesla actually does for the Model S/X already. Then you can have a small test drive fleet and a small amount of well-trained staff, and it can be completely independent of the service centers, avoiding all legal issues.

(When I test drove a Model S 90D in March 2016, it was clear that the representative knew his script, but didn't really KNOW what he was talking about or anything about cars. I enjoyed the test drive, but... You can afford better representatives if they're shared across the whole country.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

That was primarily so I could be informed of the range of a starlight scope, and not reveal that information to others

Ooh ooh, I know this one! It's 6 Light Beers!

 

[jhm]

Don't we want this case as soon as possible. Only the dealers benefit by the uncertainty of the court decision vs the commerce clause.

Seems to me there is a case to be made to get this on the docket sooner rather than later. If the case is lost then now is the time to know.

My solution is the "TeslaRyde" service. Tesla creates a wholly owned subsidiary ride service operating in all states. Multi-tiers of service starting with rides in a nearly new vehicle.

Tesla sells all vehicles to TeslaRyde which ships and services across all states. TeslaRyde sells nearly new vehicles in high numbers in order to resupply needed nearly new vehicles. All Tesla vehicles are sold used by TeslaRyde. Could even be through Carvanna etc.

Alternatively, this approach might be used in just difficult states. Maybe I am missing something but this might be workable.

Car rentals.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla is reportedly sending hourly employees home early and asking them to take time off as the company cuts costs

Tesla is engaging in a significant cost-cutting effort that has affected employee work schedules and the supply of some small parts used to make vehicles, CNBC reports.

CNBC describes three cost-reduction measures that Tesla has not made public:

• Asking employees to work remotely and keep travel to a minimum.
• Telling hourly employees at the Gigafactory — the Sparks, Nevada, factory where Tesla makes batteries and drivetrains — to leave in the middle of their shifts and asking them to take paid or unpaid time off.
• A reduction in the amount of some small parts, like rivets and fasteners, available at Tesla's vehicle assembly plant in Fremont, California.

I don’t trust the source.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Lol CNBC grasping at straws.

Also if you read in the actual article, their own "supposed" leaks are giving bullish information. Giga not producing 7k battery packs a week yet(which we know might not be true since our source says they've been doing 6.5-7/week all quarter). And aiming for 8,000/week which equates to 416,000 cars a year...….does CNBC realize that Giga battery production is just Model 3? 416,000 Model 3 rate at this point in the year is great lol. Tesla news is becoming so positive that CNBC tries their hardest to bury the positives news under the headline of bad news(and the first 4 paragraphs)

It’s even more bullish than that. From another CNBC story: “the company is not yet making 7,000 vehicle batteries a week consistently.” Which strongly suggests they have hit 7000/week in a week; they just aren’t doing it every week.

We still don’t know all the reasons they decided to roll out the $35k version at this time. This suggests that it’s at least in part because they can increase production from ~5k/week to ~7k/week— and that new production capacity requires new demand.

 

[MartinAustin]

but it does not sound like these models will be able to charge at the same rate as the Model 3.

The newest S+X may be able to charge at some rate higher than 120kW... nobody outside Tesla knows yet. Maybe 100kWh batteries can charge faster than 90kWh and lower, and actually take more than 120kW.

We will find out pretty quick. Either when someone takes their low-SOC 100kWh car to the new beta V3 Supercharger, or when they connect to a V2 that has had its software changed to allow up to 145kWh.

I still agree with the basic sentiment that something needs to be done with the S+X flagship lines to allow them to charge as fast as/faster than Model 3.

w.r.t. TSLA today- I think the significance of the new Supercharger standard went over the heads of most short sellers.

 

[kyzhk]

Saw this on reddit. model y picture leak?

Tesla Model Y caught without camouflage

Looks basically like a taller model 3

 

[bhtooefr]

Honestly, I like the Tesla-run rental agency idea.

It's an existing business model without, AFAIK, any franchise requirements anywhere.

There's precedent for automakers running rental business (Toyota Rent a Car, which isn't well-publicized.)

It would also provide an option for longer-term testing of Teslas, in situations including road trips, without the limitations that many Turo owners impose (including sugar like only giving the valet key unless you pay more).

And, it means that if you specifically want an EV to rent when you're on a trip, you can be guaranteed a Tesla, helping the mission.

The main drawback I can see is that it has relatively high opex, but it can be priced to be a profitable business unit on its own, offsetting that.

 

[lklundin]

The corollary to that at the beginning of the age of the automobile would be older men who were traditionalists and didn't want to adapt to gasoline technology probably said "No clip-clop".

Tell your friend the problem with the Corvette is it needs more "cowbell".

Actually, I believe one challenge the first automobiles had was that the driver could no longer leave the driving to itself for a few moments, something that had worked quite well with a couple of horses that knew their way around town.

I guess we are about to re-experience that old luxury...

 

[KarenRei]

It’s even more bullish than that. From another CNBC story: “the company is not yet making 7,000 vehicle batteries a week consistently.” Which strongly suggests they have hit 7000/week in a week; they just aren’t doing it every week.

We still don’t know all the reasons they decided to roll out the $35k version at this time. This suggests that it’s at least in part because they can increase production from ~5k/week to ~7k/week— and that new production capacity requires new demand.

Seriously. CNBC spun good news as bad. I mean, WTH? Alternative headline would be "Tesla averaging near 7000 vehicles per week, with peak rates exceeding that". Q4 was, what, ~4,6k average? And yes, at 7k a week, they better need SR in the mix in the US, or their global market estimates of 10k/wk with SR in the mix everywhere are seriously low. SR is going to be particularly important in China.

As for Tesla cutting employee counts, hours, and playing a game of pennies with part production... gee, Elon totally should have said that they were going to seriously trim staff costs and playing a game of pennies with part production...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Saw this on reddit. model y picture leak?

Tesla Model Y caught without camouflage

Looks basically like a taller model 3

Steering wheel on the right hand side?!?!? Next....

 

[Artful Dodger]

The battery packs between the 3 and the Y are going to be the same. It may be possible for the platform to accommodate a larger battery pack, but they will not do this until the Model S can beat the Model 3 in terms of range by a good margin. In other words, the Model 3 and Y will not get a bigger battery pack until after the S & X have bigger battery packs than they have now. Given the size comparisons between the S and the 3, you can pretty much anticipate that the 3 can only have 75% capacity of the S.

Of COURSE they will get a bigger (larger capacity) bty pack. Tesla is averages 7% annual improvement in energy density for its bty packs.

The Maxwell aquistion alone promises to bring an immediate 30-50% improvement with the first generation of dry electrode battery cells (300 whr/kg). That's a minimum 100 KWh pack. At least.

Then, Maxwell has also shown a path to 500 whr/kg cells, which yields a 150 KWhr pack. That's in the 3 and Y, at the same weight and dimensions, but with twice the cycle life as the current generation. Likely faster max charging allowable too, and with a slower taper so faster charging allowed at higher SOCs.

TL;dr It's good be YUGE!

 

[tracksyde]

Saw this on reddit. model y picture leak?

Tesla Model Y caught without camouflage

Looks basically like a taller model 3

its a fake picture

 

[Cherry Wine]

Saw this on reddit. model y picture leak?

Tesla Model Y caught without camouflage

Looks basically like a taller model 3

Looks legit. I like it. Shame that it spoils the surprise, though.

Edit: Apparently fake? Fooled me!

Double edit: The source image:

 

[bhtooefr]

The headlights are Model X headlights, so... yeah, I dunno.

Do we have a citation on it being fake? Yep, we do.

 

[wipster]

Tesla is reportedly sending hourly employees home early and asking them to take time off as the company cuts costs

Tesla is engaging in a significant cost-cutting effort that has affected employee work schedules and the supply of some small parts used to make vehicles, CNBC reports.

CNBC describes three cost-reduction measures that Tesla has not made public:

• Asking employees to work remotely and keep travel to a minimum.
• Telling hourly employees at the Gigafactory — the Sparks, Nevada, factory where Tesla makes batteries and drivetrains — to leave in the middle of their shifts and asking them to take paid or unpaid time off.
• A reduction in the amount of some small parts, like rivets and fasteners, available at Tesla's vehicle assembly plant in Fremont, California.

Man, in reading that CNBC article, I don't think I've ever seen someone(s) trying as hard as they possibly can to write a negative article. The fact that suppliers are having a difficult time getting over a snowy pass for instance is totally out of Tesla's control. Also, the bit about the amount of fasteners decreasing is common practice among manufacturing firms, mainly because the salesmen for the fastener company try to load up the bins at the end of a quarter to boost their commissions... any stores manager worth their salt would review that and cut back on the stock to smaller balance! I've done it at 2 different companies where I worked.

These bastards are trying as hard as they can to put Tesla in a bad light when in fact the opposite is true.

 

[KarenRei]

The headlights are Model X headlights, so... yeah, I dunno.

Do we have a citation on it being fake?

Just looks really fake, that's all. But I'm not going to pull a Neal here

 

[tracksyde]

The headlights are Model X headlights, so... yeah, I dunno.

Do we have a citation on it being fake?

The top rated comment on that thread. The link is to this picture:

The background is the same.. so it definitely looks like a photoshop mash-up

 

[winfield100]

..."The Prius is a piece of *sugar*, it's like a cheese-wedge on wheels"...

Citicar - Wikipedia (i used to own a blue Citi, 2.5hp, 10kW lead sled)(yes slow except downhill)
(It's the blue and red ones, and was a hot seller)