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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Barron's - half hour ago: GM Stock Is Rising Because Wall Street Thinks Its EVs Can Make Money

Excerpt:

For the stock to work, GM will have to earn a nice return on all that capital. But making money on EVs isn't assured. Tesla (TSLA), the world's most-valuable EV company only recently began producing consistent profits. Batteries and electric motors are still more expensive than internal combustion engines and a gas tank, even though EV-related costs are coming down.
 
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I don't think the camera range means anything. I don't even know why they show that on he Tesla page.

It's not like light stops after traveling 80 meters. Your eyes can see all the way down the road. So can a camera.



To be fair your eyes have much much higher resolution, including for resolving distant objects, than the cameras on the car.


There's a whole subforum for discussion of AP/FSD hardware and its capabilities and adequacy (or lack thereof) though-
Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD
 
Electrek - half hour ago: Tesla is looking to implement new automated camera system for quality inspection at Fremont factory - Electrek

Job Description:

“The vehicle engineering team at Tesla is looking for a highly motivated Quality Inspection Engineer to apply their experience with vehicle assembly lines and manufacturing software systems to lead the installation and operations of automation camera inspection systems into existing manufacturing lines.”

This is precisely the stuff the company I work for does. (In fact, they might be referring to equipment our company manufactures).

It is possible they are referring to Tesla's own AI, but usually this kind of posting refers to metrology camera systems that are able to measure and inspect parts using light, like this system:
White-Light Scanner
 
Go back to drinking beer ;) your brain cells our being depleted of it's necessary nourishment :D or is it the other way around o_O

Here you go, folks, was just over a year back @ReflexFunds and @Fact Checking, I'm sure @The Accountant chimed-in too...

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

On the 1.25% $1,380m Mar-2021 converts, conversion price is $360 (3.8m shares). The call option feature on these is currently worth $494m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $561 strike (currently worth $193m)

On the 2.38% $978m Mar-2022 converts, conversion price is $327.5 (3m shares). The call option on these is currently worth $518m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $655 strike (currently worth $188m)

On the 2.0% $1,840m May-2024 converts, conversion price is $310 (6m shares). The call option on these is currently worth $1,311m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $607.5 strike (currently worth $745m)
 
End of 2021 seems a long time to wait for what should never have happened in the first place...


Nasdaq TSLA short interest will go down by about ~19m shares in the first March report.
Does this mean someone has to buy 19m shares?
@The Accountant can you please confirm that this won't be booked as profit.
No, that 19M is already shorted when convertible notes were purchased. It just cancel itself out pretty much.
 
It appears that low rolling resistance tires also tend to reduce particulate. So do you know for a fact that was not part of the goals Tesla had in improving tire design for EV use?

The other day there was talk of lamp post chargers and I chimed in that ultimately the solution was FSD, allowing the cars to go charge themselves whenever the owner commands.

Here too, the answer to tyres could ultimately be FSD. Human drivers rely on high friction (short life) tyres (Australian spelling) to compensate for driving errors. Cars that don’t make errors will still be much safer, even with low friction long lasting tyres.
 
For anyone who doesn't want to click the Electrek link, it's Dan Ives from Wedbush...

"Now, one top Wall Street analyst, Daniel Ives of Wedbush, says that it could only be the beginning of Tesla’s stock rise.

In a recent interview with TD Americas, Ives said that he sees Tesla rising over $1.5 trillion over the next year or two:

“In a year or two from now, we’re not just looking at one trillion for Tesla, but in a couple of years this could be a company that could start to approach 1.5 trillion – 2 trillion market valuation.”

The analyst is amongst the most optimistic on Wall Street as he sees Tesla delivering 800,000 vehicles in 2021."
 
Here you go, folks, was just over a year back @ReflexFunds and @Fact Checking, I'm sure @The Accountant chimed-in too...

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

On the 1.25% $1,380m Mar-2021 converts, conversion price is $360 (3.8m shares). The call option feature on these is currently worth $494m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $561 strike (currently worth $193m)

On the 2.38% $978m Mar-2022 converts, conversion price is $327.5 (3m shares). The call option on these is currently worth $518m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $655 strike (currently worth $188m)

On the 2.0% $1,840m May-2024 converts, conversion price is $310 (6m shares). The call option on these is currently worth $1,311m. Tesla owns calls of this value to hedge potential dilution, but it has also sold warrants with a $607.5 strike (currently worth $745m)
Yeah, I was just gonna say that this info created quite a stir when 'discovered' about a year ago. But seems to have been largely forgotten since. Was thinking there were two or three tranches of these, not just the one just twetted about and you just found the info for the other two.

Add in the 1.9 billion tax issue and there is about $4 billion or so of cash flow that no one seems to think about much.

At least I think all of these will improve cash flow if not profit.
 
The most appropriate way would be to tax based on miles of use per car. Easy enough with a smart car like a Tesla automating the reporting. More difficult for older ICE cars that would require annual auditing of the odometer reading.

Very nearly all highway wear and tear is caused by trucks. Cars basically should be able to ride for free on highways designed and maintained for heavy trucks.

so the fairest tax would need to account for weight as well as mileage.
 
Yeah, I was just gonna say that this info created quite a stir when 'discovered' about a year ago. But seems to have been largely forgotten since. Was thinking there were two or three tranches of these, not just the one just twetted about and you just found the info for the other two.

Add in the 1.9 billion tax issue and there is about $4 billion or so of cash flow that no one seems to think about much.

At least I think all of these will improve cash flow if not profit.

We don't care about profit... FCF is king!
 
Actually, it surprised me, in the presentation they talked about 8M daily kilometers at the moment across 6 OEMs. So roughly 3 Billions kms per year and ramping up quickly. I don't know the exact number for Tesla, but probably not more than 10X Mobileye's.
Mobileye plans on having 1Billion kms worth of data daily by 2024. Not sure Tesla could match that.

Those 8M/1B daily kilometers are NOT used for collecting training data for NNs but for building/updating HD maps.
 
I fail to see how either Tesla or Mobileye camera suite can see far enough down the road at a T intersection to safely make a left turn. You come up to a stop sign on a rural road, you stop, you look WAY down the road to see if some maniac is coming and then quickly make your turn. The camera ranges shown by Tesla and Mobileye do not make me confident they can make this turn safely. I'm sorry. If I am missing something, it's because they have not shown me why they can handle this situation.

I don't think the camera range means anything. I don't even know why they show that on the Tesla page.

It's not like light stops after traveling 80 meters. Your eyes can see all the way down the road. So can a camera.

To be fair your eyes have much much higher resolution, including for resolving distant objects, than the cameras on the car.


There's a whole subforum for discussion of AP/FSD hardware and its capabilities and adequacy (or lack thereof) though-
Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD

In actuality Tesla’s side cameras are capable of viewing objects over 93M miles away:)
 
Electrek - half hour ago: Tesla is looking to implement new automated camera system for quality inspection at Fremont factory - Electrek

Job Description:

“The vehicle engineering team at Tesla is looking for a highly motivated Quality Inspection Engineer to apply their experience with vehicle assembly lines and manufacturing software systems to lead the installation and operations of automation camera inspection systems into existing manufacturing lines.”

Tesla has extensive experience in neural net training. I would be surprised if they don’t use neural nets as part of this camera inspection system. The next logical step would be to apply the tech to assembly. Maybe Dojo will enable the alien dreadnaught after all.