Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 21 minutes ago; Tesla files to use new 'millimeter-wave radar' on its 'full self-driving' electric cars - Electrek

Excerpt:

“The equipment under test (EUT) was an Vehicle Millimeter-wave Radar Sensor operating in 60 GHz band (60-64 GHz).”

 

[Nocturnal]

Very nearly all highway wear and tear is caused by trucks. Cars basically should be able to ride for free on highways designed and maintained for heavy trucks.

so the fairest tax would need to account for weight as well as mileage.

I can't like this enough. Of course you always get some chuckleF--k who will say "if urr trucks dun drive then urr country shut down". Semis not only account for what seems to be an excessive amount of wear on the roads, they also do things like break my windshield twice (just a hypothetical) and kill people. OT but this is something that annoys me.

FWIW, the original HUMVEE had this ability to vary tire pressure in motion.

Looking forward to seeing this integrated into a Tesla's arsenal of computer-controlled variables for maximizing traction and passenger comfort/safety.

So can a sherp. I was bored the other day and was looking at options to buy one.

For anyone who doesn't want to click the Electrek link, it's Dan Ives from Wedbush...

"Now, one top Wall Street analyst, Daniel Ives of Wedbush, says that it could only be the beginning of Tesla’s stock rise.

In a recent interview with TD Americas, Ives said that he sees Tesla rising over $1.5 trillion over the next year or two:

“In a year or two from now, we’re not just looking at one trillion for Tesla, but in a couple of years this could be a company that could start to approach 1.5 trillion – 2 trillion market valuation.”

The analyst is amongst the most optimistic on Wall Street as he sees Tesla delivering 800,000 vehicles in 2021."

And that is great for us. If the most bullish analysts are only seeing 800k in 2021, then the market will be shocked when Tesla almost hits 1 million for the year.

 

[lafrisbee]

I was good ALL day...and then you bring up Cybernotatruck and doors.... I believe suicide doors on the vehicle are desirable in a big way..if you have dogs or kids, or constantly get crap out of the back.
It might change that pillar in an imprved way as well. Narrower And Stronger.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Very nearly all highway wear and tear is caused by trucks. Cars basically should be able to ride for free on highways designed and maintained for heavy trucks.

so the fairest tax would need to account for weight as well as mileage.

Highways yes, but not cities or wherever there is congestion. In those places you need a formula based on time and duration of use and vehicle length. Also some discount if FSD and fast acceleration allows more cars to utilise a lane.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A lot of OT discussions today. The one about tires (27 posts) is the lucky winner to get its own thread: Tesla tires (out of main)

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Wow, an actual quiet day today. Nice to finally be able to take a break, so far 2021 has been just wild.

 

[MP3Mike]

I haven't seen this mentioned here: House impeaches Trump for second time — with some GOP support

Any ideas on how the market and/or TSLA will react?

This article seems to think it will be a non-issue: Why stock market remains unfazed as Trump sees historic 2nd impeachment

On Wednesday, before the vote was completed the stock market ended mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing barely negative and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes finishing in positive territory.

Stock-index futures for the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 appeared unrattled as the vote looked to fall in favor of impeachment.

 

[Phobi]

Haven’t seen this posted yet today, but nice discussions on the outlook for 2021. Looking forward to what Rob has in store in his in-depth follow up.

 

[EcoBruin]

NHTSA Recall of touchscreen failures

U.S. asks Tesla to recall 158,000 vehicles for touchscreen failures

Sort of old news to us Tesla owners. I received an email from Tesla regarding this on my 16 Model X and the replacement of the emmc a while back. Tried to have the service bulletin performed but being told the parts are backordered.

Edit: Adding link to Tesla's support page
Warranty Adjustment Program

 

[Congo Line]

Interesting article in Bloomberg businessweek about China and political risks for Tesla. I have wondered how this will play out in the long run for Elon and Tesla.

Elon Musk Loves China, and China Loves Him Back—for Now — Bloomberg Businessweek

 

[Tyler34]

NHTSA Recall of touchscreen failures

U.S. asks Tesla to recall 158,000 vehicles for touchscreen failures

Well that explains the after hours 9 point drop. You know, because 158k screens obviously costs about 8billion in market cap....

 

[hacer]

I agree that the quality of the data is definitely not the same, but the fact that they are working with multiple OEMs at the same time shows that they could be ramping faster than we think if things go well. I haven't seen much info on what car they have integrated their hardware.

8M km per day for cars averaging 19,300 km per year amounts to 53 km/day each. So that would take 151,000 cars doing this constantly where every single one is fully self-driving equipped and with data/storage and telematics to report 100% of all driving. So over 25,000 cars for each OEM. That's setting off my smoke detectors! Besides that, virtually none of that mileage could actually be self-driving. It would all have to be passive observation while the owner drives. Otherwise we'd be hearing about these 151,000 self driving cars out there from these other OEMs.

 

[SarahsDad]

Time to diversify...

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest plans 'ARKX' space exploration ETF to tap the growing industry

Edit: EV forever beat me to it

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Refresh could be everything BUT cosmetic We would have no clue in such a case. Maybe the model S and X cars being produced right now have 4680 batteries, better performance, longer range, faster charging.
Until they announce a change in specs, who would know?
TBH model S/X are such a rounding-error in teslas production from here onwards that I doubt senior management wants to spend bandwidth on redesigning the interior right now. Getting cybertruck & semi out, and ramping GF3, then berlin, then Tx... where is the time to even look through design mockups for elon? and thats forgetting the other billion companies he runs...

 

[winfield100]

Just saw this on Twitter

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1349473622981816322?s=20

View attachment 627297

TMC thread on ARKX that should start trading around 3/29/2021 (75 days from 1/13 filing)
(just another manic monday)(bet they have BPTRX)

Starlink IPO

 

[adiggs]

Very nearly all highway wear and tear is caused by trucks. Cars basically should be able to ride for free on highways designed and maintained for heavy trucks.

so the fairest tax would need to account for weight as well as mileage.

I went digging for info about this awhile back (year or more?) and found a study from Kansas regarding road wear on a few specific highways that carried a lot of agriculture related trucks.

The equation they arrived at (over a few hundred pages of methods and data) was that road wear was a function of time (i.e. weather) and commercial truck axles (more axles and tires spread the weight out over more of the road, and reduces the wear / damage to the road).

Cars and light duty vehicles were such a small rounding error on road wear that they counted less than weather (which is to say, ignored in the equation).


I believe that vehicle related wearing of roads varies with the 4th power of axle weight. Thus the importance of having more axles the heavier the load is. Really heavy vehicles with few axles is the absolute worst for road wear.

You might have noticed cement trucks (and others) with axles that can be lowered and raised? Lowering the axles spreads the weight out over a better area. It is probably a requirement for operating the vehicle, or is probably at minimum a necessity for a lower licensing cost for the vehicle. Raising them back up saves tire wear and improves fuel efficiency.


Conclusion - road taxes for light duty vehicles and everything lighter is a subsidy for the commercial road based transportation industry.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well that explains the after hours 9 point drop. You know, because 158k screens obviously costs about 8billion in market cap....

Especially since it isn't the screen that needs replaced, it is the Tegra daughterboard that Tesla charges $120 for. Total cost, including labor, is closer to $400. (And a lot of them have already been replaced under the warranty adjustment program or by people paying to upgrade to MCU2.)

Even if none had been replaced yet that would cost ~$19M in parts and ~$44M in labor at the rates they charge customers. So I have to figure that the cost to Tesla to perform this requested recall would be under $50M. (And at that it would come from their warranty reserves, so it shouldn't impact the financials.)

Hopefully they will address the cost of this in their Q4 earnings report.

 

[MC3OZ]

TBH model S/X are such a rounding-error in teslas production from here onwards that I doubt senior management wants to spend bandwidth on redesigning the interior right now. Getting cybertruck & semi out, and ramping GF3, then berlin, then Tx...

Any refresh would improve margins by lowering the build cost.

Model S/X are important as flagship models and sell OK for their segment of the market, there is money to be made, if they stay competitive

I don't think the build at Austin or Berlin can go much faster, everything else is dependent on ramping 4680 cell production.

IMO there is a good chance Model S/X can provide a boost to Q1 2021 earnings, and if there is a refresh, it will be many years before the next one..

 

[Curt Renz]

Zacks - hour ago: Tesla (TSLA) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know

Excerpts:

Wall Street will be looking for positivity from TSLA as it approaches its next earnings report date. In that report, analysts expect TSLA to post earnings of $0.84 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 95.35%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $9.98 billion, up 35.13% from the prior-year quarter...

TSLA is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).

 

[reardencode]

Just got this message from a Tesla sales advisor:

"Personally I would wait to cancel the Model X until we see updates. The production line should be up and running again."

I've been considering an X instead of Y depending on the updates.