Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shootformoon]

If there is no manipulation and FUD, tsla should be a $200B cap. Then it can easily dilute 10% to get $20B and suddenly 5 new GF are under construction at the same time, one on every continent.

I don't understand their game anymore though. Tesla is self funding, and has access to as much capital as they need. Forcing the stock to stay at 400 vs 500 doesn't seem to benefit them.

 

[Drax7]

Here is something amusing concerning the JNJ ipo in 1944.

Over the next decade, Johnson & Johnson issued three more 2-for-1 stock splits, in 1992, 1996, and 2001. Your share count would double to 165,780, then double again to 331,560. And then it would double for the last time, to 663,120 shares. At the current price of $145 a share, your original $10,000 investment in 1944 would be worth $96,152,400 in 2019. In Peter Lynch's lingo, that's a 9,615-bagger.

As long as Elon is in charge ........

 

[davepsilon]

Once-deemed ‘Tesla killer’ Mercedes EQC flops with 55 units sold in Germany to date

'Data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) revealed that there were only 19 units of the SUV that were sold in November 2019. Since the vehicle was released in the country, registrations for the vehicle have only numbered 55.'

'Welt aptly puts it: “The car is not only widely advertised, but has also been delivered for a few months. And at the last major e-car premiere that Germany experienced this year, numerous Tesla Model 3s drove through the area after just a few weeks. So where are the electric models from Stuttgart?”'

Mercedes gets a lot more value from fleet emission reductions for sales in Europe starting in 2020 compared to 2019. These were so valuable that it is speculated US sales of the EQC have been delayed to try to capture a better emissions reduction in Europe. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on EQC sales numbers compared to Tesla's until we can see what spring/summer of 2020 brings.

 

[jbcarioca]

... That will greatly increase long institutional holding which should put an end to rampant short manipulation.

It could have the opposite effect. Inclusion will decrease total active share float, since the majority of those shares will probably not participate in share lending. That would produce increased volatility and greater opportunity of algorithmic manipulations.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I was just in Fort Lauderdale and was surprised how there were very few solar installs and Tesla's. We still have a long way to go.

My brother lives in fla considered adding solar but fla not favorable to installs. The purchase price of electricity sold is crazy low compared to what consumers are charged for their electricity

 

[lklundin]

What is really impressive is they did it without freebies and "wink wink" big discounts on inventory cars.

People brag about getting those. Didn't hear any bragging this time.

During EOQ sales which Teslas if any were sold with free, unlimited supercharging?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lol, what do you think Neuralink is for? Mind control?

Cheers!

That's just a modified K&S Wirebonder is all. Meh...

 

[printf42]

Chinese review/buyers guide of MIC Model 3.
This guy is not a car guy, his channel is more of a tech review channel but he has a few EV videos here and there. He used to own an old Model S with AP1(sold because of AP1 being old), now drives NIO ES8, and he did put an order in for MIC Model 3.

In general very positive about the MIC trim, as expected.

The title is called “tragedy of 34c” where 34c means:

• BMW 3
• Audi A4
• Benz C

He said there is no reason at all to buy 34C over Model 3 now with the MIC pricing.(Except maybe refueling gas is a bit faster, but for city driving 100km in 10min on supercharger is already fast enough.)
He also mentioned after the “final MIC pricing announcement”, sales are looking very good.

He is also predicting the story of Blackberry and Nokia will happen again to car industry.

Overall, this shows Chinese public at least younger YouTube(or bilibili) generation gets it already.

 

[kbM3]

Well, it's nice to have those kinds of idiots around because they help create a much higher floor for the share price should disaster strike (earthquake, fire, world recession, etc.).

Why do I call them idiots? Let's take the classic example of Microsoft. It was well recognized to have near-monopoly status in an exploding market of PC's for years before the DOJ slapped their wrist. From about 1988 all through the 1990's MSFT was considered so over-valued that value investors couldn't take a stake. I made a killing because I closed my eyes and bought the "over-priced" piece of sugar.

You need to look at a logarithmic chart to see the magic:

View attachment 496272
Yes, that's 10 cents a (split-adjusted)) share down there in 1996. It rose sharply to around 40 cents a share (split-adjusted) in 1998 (the plateau before 1990 on the chart). This is when people started saying it was "too over-priced". Remember, it was not actually selling for 10 cents or 40 cents a share, it was $30 or $80 depending upon where it was in the split schedule. People who didn't pull the trigger because it was "over-priced" missed out on becoming MSFT millionaires. As did most of the people who took money off the table as it doubled, then tripled, then became a ten-bagger and went on to be worth more than 1000 times as much.

Never hesitate to buy a great company because it's "over-priced". If it really is a great company it will be "over-priced" for years. But there is a reason people pay a premium for companies like this. Gorillas with room to grow. To my way of thinking, MSFT was never really "over-priced" (until near the end of the century), it was a screaming buy. That's how I see TSLA right now. Only a person who thinks small would call it "over-priced".

MSFT may be over-priced right now (but what do I know, I sold all mine the second time at $120-$130, purchased in the very low $30 range), whether it's over-priced now or not depends upon the size of the markets they are entering and their success in them. It might be a very good investment or they may be near the peak of thier growth. I'm not buying - I like TSLA a lot more.

you just don’t get buy low and sell high.

‘Here’s what they probably did with Microsoft to get 1050X returns instead of your measly 1000X

 

[jerry33]

Maybe Toyota can fight it out in small city car segemnt, or enter bus manufacturing?

The entry point for bus manufacturing is relatively easy because you only have to design and build the body. Everything else is off the shelf. So Toyota would have to compete with a number of smaller companies that have a much lower overhead.

 

[EVNow]

It could have the opposite effect. Inclusion will decrease total active share float, since the majority of those shares will probably not participate in share lending. That would produce increased volatility and greater opportunity of algorithmic manipulations.

This is probably OT for this thread. May be @Papafox can comment in the other thread.

Mod: Moved to here from elsewhere.

 

[printf42]

Check this out: VW says a lot of interesting things. The software part is slide 14, problem is they don't seem to have the strength to do this themselves (look at the collaboration partners they show on slide 16):

https://www.volkswagenag.com/presen...19/12_december/2019-12-09_Evercore_RS_Ldn.pdf

There are reports that VW wants to go from currently 500 developers to 2000 developers at the end of this year and then on to 10.000. Of course this does not help if your assets, strategy and leadership is not aligned.

And the reports that they have thousands of ID 3 in a parking lot without working software (and even need to manually update them once the software is ready since not even the OTA functionality is there) doesn't help me become a believer. The problem? VW is probably one of the best of the legacy car makers...

Very typical mistake for traditional enterprises trying to master software.
They think the outcome is linear to the team size they have.
Reality is when team size cross a certain threshold, not only efficiency drops, the total productivity drops too.
But, the money they put in would be linear to team size, so they would count the sinking money as assets, no problem at all.
Actually that’s another mistake right there, instead of using 10x salaries to find 100x programmers, they retain bunch of 80% people with 95% salaries, they get things done as you asked, sometimes. And they would never surprise you.

In short, there is no hope for those big traditional enterprises led by bean counters to master software. The end.

 

[SebastianR]

Very typical mistake for traditional entertainment trying to master software.
They think the outcome is linear to the team size they have.
Reality is when team size cross a certain threshold, not only efficiency drops, the total productivity also drops.
But, the money they put in would be linear to team size, so they would count the sinking money as assets, no problem at all.
Actually that’s another mistake right there, instead of using 10x salaries to find 100x programmers, they retain bunch of 80% people with 95% salaries, they get things done as you asked, sometimes. And they would never surprise you.

In short, there is no hope for those big traditional enterprises led by bean counters to master software. The end.

In short: classic example of Brooks's law - Wikipedia

'Brooks's law is an observation about software project management according to which "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later"'

 

[AudubonB]

I wouldn't write off Toyota just yet. The OEMs need to cross the chasm - fully commit to BEVs. Anything less results in:
Once-deemed ‘Tesla killer’ Mercedes EQC flops with 55 units sold in Germany to date
Waiting a little while longer may in fact be the best solution - given shareholders etc. How will Daimler shareholders behave given the EQC failure? Producing a first successful BEV is critical and doable given that Tesla are only covering a small percentage of model sizes. Another year might give Toyota time to assess the market and come up with a decent design.

Out of the need to scratch a memory itch, I looked up some things and....take a look at the following. From exactly one year ago:

Mercedes-Benz EQC Sold Out For 2019, Probably 2020 | CleanTechnica

 

[dgodfrey]

Hear us all chatting in the background about FSD, IRA, boring interpretive accounting, 83,000 consensus deliveries per quarter, and what the proper consistency is of plastic cheese for nachos.

How did I miss the cheese discussion? Dammit, now I'll have to sift through 100 pages.
Help a brother out. If I filter my search with "nacho cheese", will that point me in the right direction?
Not OT, planning on selling my Tesla shares for cheese futures.

 

[jerry33]

There are reports that VW wants to go from currently 500 developers to 2000 developers at the end of this year and then on to 10.000.

Holy cats! @FactChecking's 15 years ahead just got moved to 30 years. Twenty times as many software developers means twenty times as late--and that's the bull case.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This is not reasoning by first principles. Of course Toyota can go bankrupt. Of course the government can then prop them up. But then guess what? Toyota can go bankrupt again and again and again. At some point the government will no longer be able to prop them up either because the government runs out of resources or people demand they stop or some combination.

Toyota HAS to produce vehicles that people WANT to buy. That’s a fact. Toyota HAS to make a profit from those vehicles at some point. That’s a fact.

It’s more likely that we see layoffs and repeated downsizing of many of the larger OEMs until they downsize themselves out of existence or they downsize to a position of strength - meaning they become small enough to have unloaded all the bureaucracy and legacy weights and can start from scratch and rebuild themselves.

The smaller OEMs just going bu-bye, either completely abandoned or swallowed up by someone bigger, who will then - see above paragraph.

Final answer.

Final answer does not make it a correct answer.

If Japan sees vehicle production as a matter of national security (they do) then the support will never end, at least while they can print their own currency and set their own rules on tax and importation. They can create the conditions where the domestic population wants to buy domestic products due to any number of regulatory levers the Japanese government can pull. You see the same thing every day in China.

First principles of this discussion: Japanese national security.

Many of the events you describe may come to pass but the end result is incorrect. Domestic vehicle production in Japan will happen and Toyota being the monster in the industry will be supported.

 

[dgodfrey]

Mercedes gets a lot more value from fleet emission reductions for sales in Europe starting in 2020 compared to 2019. These were so valuable that it is speculated US sales of the EQC have been delayed to try to capture a better emissions reduction in Europe. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on EQC sales numbers compared to Tesla's until we can see what spring/summer of 2020 brings.

I believe that's the Mach-E strategy as well.

 

[azaz]

I knew the EQC would be a failure when I read that it had a literal fake engine block

a good EV needs to be designed from the ground up to be an EV, not just a cut and paste job from an ICE equivalent

 

[Krugerrand]

Here is something amusing concerning the JNJ ipo in 1944.

Over the next decade, Johnson & Johnson issued three more 2-for-1 stock splits, in 1992, 1996, and 2001. Your share count would double to 165,780, then double again to 331,560. And then it would double for the last time, to 663,120 shares. At the current price of $145 a share, your original $10,000 investment in 1944 would be worth $96,152,400 in 2019. In Peter Lynch's lingo, that's a 9,615-bagger.

As long as Elon is in charge ........

Except I died in 1988 at the age of 74.

So, not helpful.