Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dano-oly]

I just made a friendly wager with that family member. In a paper trading account at my brokerage, I bought $10,000 worth of both TSLA and AAPL shares. I told him we will check this account 5 years from today and see who wins.

Suggest that you convert the TSLA paper account to real money.

 

[StealthP3D]

One more: Plaid deliveries start this month so brace for YouTuber reviews and 1/4 mile drag races. Free advertising.

Yes, but a 1/4 mile is not the real world. The Plaid Model S might be able to beat every production car ever made in the 1/4 mile but a fast gas car will start pulling away at 180 mph. And try doing twenty or thirty 1/4 mile runs, uphill, with a headwind, in the winter, back to back! /s

 

[StealthP3D]

ARK store is now a thing: Swag For Good by ARK Invest

Toss a coin to your queen, Cathie.

Dang! There's no Arquila!

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes, but a 1/4 mile is not the real world. The Plaid Model S might be able to beat every production car ever made in the 1/4 mile but a fast gas car will start pulling away at 180 mph. And try doing twenty or thirty 1/4 mile runs, uphill, with a headwind, in the winter, back to back! /s

The best is when it's some kid who drives a civic or an older guy rocking a minivan saying that.

 

[capster]

People seem to forget that Tesla will likely get into aviation. My guess would be they'll start seriously planning for that around 2025-2026. That alone will take up another 3-5 Gigafactories.

Agree on aviation. But wait! There’ll be more!

Elon has stated that he wants Tesla to be the best at manufacturing.

Tesla has demonstrated that it is excellent at engineering cost out of products.

There are a lot of things that will benefit from the ‘Tesla touch’ when it comes to manufacturing for life on Mars and elsewhere beyond Earth. HVAC being an obvious example and mRNA being a less obvious example.

I can imagine any number of products being sucked into the vortex of Tesla productization and manufacture all in the name of the mission.

I’m sure Elon will continue to careful with organizational bandwidth and continue to manage the boundary of between what should and shouldn’t be done by Tesla.

I’m also sure their boundaries will continue to expand.

 

[Duffer]

Just saw this in my news feed. Trying to tie the former POTUS and Elon together in their disregard for safety. Author really pushing to curtail "self driving" and includes quotes from experts.

ETA Sorry about the messy looking link.

https://www-latimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&_amp=true&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16124617915953&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden

 

[Off Shore]

I agree, it'll help. But I don't see Tesla releasing incomplete features / capabilities from the FSD Beta program to the release version of FSD (the one currently for sale for $10K in the U.S. but which does NOT do 'navigate on city streets'.

So I see a subscription service being a positive for adoption rates of the existing product, but not the 10x 'Home Run' for the SP that I expect from a fully functional release of FSD w. robotaxi fleet.

I'm hopeful for wider release in 2021, but I'm not basing my forcast on that timetable. I'm calling for 2025-7 (and the release of the Model 1 / Robotaxi) for the full effect of FSD on TSLA's SP.

Gonna go out on a limb here and call for the 1st Gigafactory in India to be a Model 1 / Robotaxi plant, and that Tesla will buy most of the production for their own fleet, and sell just enough to fleet operators to fund the program for Tesla.

With a 50% gross margin, it could be that Tesla owns half of all robotaxi's effectively for free, while growing the revenue stream for future income, and managing net profits to minimize taxes.

Note that the combination of EV/FSD/Gigafactories will eat the world by 2040, Mars in the next Century, the Solar System this Millenium, the Galaxy in 100K yrs, the local Group in 1M years, and the visible Universe in 1B years. BTW, that's a shorter timespan than there's been multicellular life on Earth (a paltry 600M years). Amateurs!

Winning ^(Cubed)

Cheers! #FSD

But when are you cashing out?

 

[kengchang]

Just saw this in my news feed. Trying to tie the former POTUS and Elon together in their disregard for safety. Author really pushing to curtail "self driving" and includes quotes from experts.

https://www-latimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&_amp=true&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16124617915953&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden

Is it written by Russ?

 

[Duffer]

Is it written by Russ?

The one and only.


The theme of tying the previous administration around Elon's neck like an albatross is my concern. After all, there is a knee jerk reaction based on just mentioning his name. Biden has repeatedly said his mission is to undo everything that 45 did. Elon/Tesla could be thrown out with the bath water.

 

[avoigt]

Benzinga - hour ago: Could Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin Produce Over 500K Vehicles Annually?

Excerpt:

Gigafactory Berlin is expected to first produce the Tesla Model Y, with other vehicles coming online later. The Berlin factory will be the first to use Tesla's new 4680 battery cells.

Gigafactory Berlin has 8 Gigapresses that will be used to make the Model Y and possibly other vehicles, according to Teslarati.

The current consensus puts Gigafactory Berlin's annual vehicle production rate at around 500,000, but Teslarati said that may be an underestimate because of the capabilities of the Gigapress.

Curt, the plans is for up to 2m vehicles p.a. once fully build up and with 40k employees

 

[CanadaEV]

The bottleneck isn't producing the vehicle, it producing the batteries.

900K Cybertrucks requires over 100 GWh of bty cells (and that's with a 90:10 ratio of Std/Dual mtr w 100KWh to Plaid w. 200KWh btys, so more bty req'd if the Plaid:Std C/T prod. ratio is higher).

That's doable, but will consume the entire output of a 2nd Austin Bty plant (or adding ~5 modular bty lines @ 20GWh/yr to the 1st plant).

So quite obvious how a rampup will proceed:

• 200K Cybertrucks initial production capacity
• C/T prod. sized to match cell capacity of 1 bty line
• prove C/T market and establish revenue stream
• 400K Cybertrucks in phase 2 (2nd bty line added)
• prove Market and establish revenue stream
• 600, 800K modules in phases as demand allows
• total time: at least 4 years, w. options for more lines

Cheers!

Yes, I can’t put my finger on any problems in your calculations… But I still have difficulty with the conclusions of the future alien archeologist professor as he explains to his class,
“Humans had no problems at all with creating massive infrastructure of transportation, shipping, energy usage at every level, industrial production, all the things that make a culture thrive and progress… But as we know, they were defeated by their reliance on fossil fuels and the effects it had on their planet, all because they couldn’t make a battery.”

 

[UncaNed]

Meh, this is the topping. I want to see the interior, noise levels, battery and motors used. I want to see if any suspension mods have been introduced. Need to see updated supercharging rates.

What on earth for? This is Tesla. Stop being such a troublemaker (/s) and just BUY one. That's basically what I did my first 2 Tesla model X's.

Spoiler

You'll love it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m glad my 85 year old dad gets it. He asks lots of questions about TSLA and is really interested. “Just keep doing what you’re doing, son. You’ve made more in a few months than I have in a lifetime.” I love my dad.

That hits a soft spot in my heart....my dad worked his a** off for 40 years and passed away with nothing. Wish he was here to share the $TSLA $$$ that i have obtained. Enjoy your dad!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I'm rather enjoying it - closed 12x Jun cc1110 that I sold Tuesday for $92, bought today $70, thank you MM's!

What? You just made $26,000 on this dip? I'm doing this all wrong.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

This guy seems. . . a bit optimistic. His ultra-bullish model has Tesla growing to a market cap twice the size of the entire global economy by 2030. Well it’s a fun listen anyway.

Seen it.
Yes - maybe we should perhaps, with inspiration from WSB, coin the phrase Diamond Bull.
Funny though, watching clip is like the famous cooking a frog - analogue - it is gradual process. It is hard to know when to jump out of the pot. Individually, the claims are not that wild. The numbers are just huge.
But then again: Who would have thought, when the first iPhone came out around 2007 that Apple would a) become the largest company in the world by some margin and b) that people would radically change their preferences from paying ~100 dollar for a phone to sometimes 1000 dollars for a pocket computer with a phone app.

Sometimes these weird tectonic shifts happen...
His two largest assumptions are battery scaling and the advent of FSD/robotaxis.
The thing is though, even if both slip by a couple of years, the end-result does not fundamentally change - the numbers still remain crazy high, just shifted back a few years.

 

[Tslynk67]

Dang! There's no Arquila!

They should get a brewer to knock-up some I.P.Ark

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I'm sure the thought has already crossed everyone's mind, but with the castings eliminating 600 robots (300 each for front and rear--wow is that right?!?) that means that new factories, aside from being cheaper, also come up more quickly. Don't have to wait for those robots to be delivered, or to calibrate each one. Relatively easier to just get a single casting machine set up. So every manufacturing improvement there pays dividends in the future.

Improve the wiring system...now what other machinery is no longer needed for future factories? Optimize. Improve the rate at which you can manufacture. Take over the world. Then Todd cashes in his stock and buys a bunch of girlfriends islands.

The first time I heard about 'casting cars like toy' I didn't really take note - it sounded outlandish. But now, the more I see, hear and learn about casting, the better it looks. Casting for the win!
(Casting all-in: Cast the whole car, make a tipping function, and make people enter through the (large) sun-roof. Add wheels. Solved!)

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Again today a coworker come to me at and says “sell all your Tesla stock! Now! You’ll be kicking yourself when it goes to zero, Sophia.”

lol! Don’t they know by now I’ve solidified my confidence in my long term position with this company? (Now I do have plenty in my savings to cover more than I will ever need and two solid jobs).
But, I’m never going to sell. Not today, not tomorrow, not next year, not in 5 years. Period! I may not know everything but I do know this.

I admit it happens way less to me now.

 

[Favguy]

Seen it.
Yes - maybe we should perhaps, with inspiration from WSB, coin the phrase Diamond Bull.
Funny though, watching clip is like the famous cooking a frog - analogue - it is gradual process. It is hard to know when to jump out of the pot. Individually, the claims are not that wild. The numbers are just huge.
But then again: Who would have thought, when the first iPhone came out around 2007 that Apple would a) become the largest company in the world by some margin and b) that people would radically change their preferences from paying ~100 dollar for a phone to sometimes 1000 dollars for a pocket computer with a phone app.

Sometimes these weird tectonic shifts happen...
His two largest assumptions are battery scaling and the advent of FSD/robotaxis.
The thing is though, even if both slip by a couple of years, the end-result does not fundamentally change - the numbers still remain crazy high, just shifted back a few years.

I often think Warren is a bit OTT, but then again, I continue to be amazed by what really can happen. Only 9 years ago I made my first TSLA investment of £25k. At the time if someone had told me it'd now be worth almost £400k, I'd have laughed them out of the room, yet here we are and it's worth 10x that...

 

[Tslynk67]

Just saw this in my news feed. Trying to tie the former POTUS and Elon together in their disregard for safety. Author really pushing to curtail "self driving" and includes quotes from experts.

ETA Sorry about the messy looking link.

https://www-latimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&_amp=true&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16124617915953&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden

FFS, you could have warned us it was a Russ "the clown" Mitchell piece. He's pure $TSLAQ, he donated to Aaron Greenspan's phoney charity.

He's the guy that was going around, back during C19 first wave, the hospitals in the Bay Area trying to prove that Tesla hadn't donated any ventilators...

He's an idiot of the highest order.

He deleted many of his Twitter posts as they were quite incriminating with regards to the saboteur trial that was ongoing https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell