Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Anyway, worth a watch

No it wasn't.

 

[Mo City]

It is rumored Giga Shanghai currently produces 700 Model Ys daily. Not sure what multiplier to use but x 300 days/yr = 210K annually.

That would be a floor for 2021 because the daily run will continue increasing.

EDIT: Pre-market will tell us in a few hours if the market believes this.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1357563757010952195

 

[ZeApelido]

It is rumored Giga Shanghai currently produces 700 Model Ys daily. Not sure what multiplier to use but x 300 days/yr = 210K annually.

That would be a floor for 2021 because the daily run will continue increasing.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1357563757010952195

So much for "ramping".

Sounds like they chose "step function" this round.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It is rumored Giga Shanghai currently produces 700 Model Ys daily. Not sure what multiplier to use but x 300 days/yr = 210K annually.

That would be a floor for 2021 because the daily run will continue increasing.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1357563757010952195

That really seems too good to be true but if it is.....man Tesla was seriously sandbagging on 2021 guidance.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT
I opened a securities backed line of credit in October with a bank.
Because it was all TSLA the credit limit was 40% and the interest rate is about 3%
If I borrowed all of that credit allowed, it would now be 20% of the value of the pledged TSLA stock.
I pay the interest monthly.
The Black Swan risks rapidly diminish over time with these loans.
They are worth checking out.

Very informative. This puts me in a new 2021 Tesla Model 3 SR+ for $127.50 per month.

Except that's $127.50 Canadian, so...

EDIT: ...or $225 CAD/mth for a 2021 Model S2/LR (dual mtr), then
ADD: $36.25 CAD/mth for FSD at current Cdn pricing.

BUT: this simplistic analysis ignores the residual value of the car. Right now in Canada you can sell your year-old Tesla for very close to what you paid. So the true cost is very low indeed, actually very close to that $2K/yr implied by the monthly interest amnt. This is very tempting...

 

[PeterJA]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

Nonstop ignorance, distortions and cherry-picking is the definition of a hit piece. I'm glad I watched it, to see that it is the best this critic could come up with.

The "competition threatens Tesla" argument will not die for a while, until the new factories ramp up and produce enough to crush the new competitors like Tesla crushed the old ones (Bolt, i3, Leaf). But anyone who seriously believes competitors are catching up should watch two videos just posted here:

https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1357503277722718212

 

[Dwdnjck]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

sponsored by Byton.

 

[Oveeus]

My position in TSLA doesn't allow me to be thinking about buying island(s) as some of the peeps here.

But I am taking a part of the position out to enjoy a bit of luxury.

Came across a waterfront home, with a tiny semi-private beach (not exactly sandy, but enough for kids to have a mad amount of fun) since the only other person possibly accessing that same part would be my to-be neighbor. The TSLA investor side of me is telling me, this might end up a lot more expensive in the long run. But the parent side of me tells me that my kids will only grow up once, and even though maybe 10yrs down the road, I can buy waterfront properties like buying a beer, I won't have little kids to write memories with.

What's good about all the money in the world if I can't enjoy it.

Put in an offer, after some back and forth, got a number that's well within my "absolute max". So I'm going for it.

Will come back with a much obligatory beer shot by the beach once we take possession!

And it's crazy... without my investment in TSLA, I don't think I would ever entertain the idea of getting a waterfront property. Thanks for everyone here providing valuable information and opinions to make me keep holding even after 10x my original investment.

Still hold a decent position, but not as significant as yesterday.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think posting a short FSD beta video in this thread every 2-3 weeks is appropriate. Mods can delete if they disagree.

This will make you feel good. Only 7 1/2 mins.

FSD stopping for the Amazon driver, that was poetic.

I watch about 10 FSD clips per week; they are absolutely relevant in a sense of new tech for a tech company. So choice ones of merit, with a pointer to a time coded event might be quick and useful for many. The risk is the temptation (like me) to comment on FSD or debate correct driving methods.

In case it goes off track, here's one solution. Just post notable moments on the correct thread (like below), and link from here with a mention. If they want the whole story, off they go... It takes a bit more work to show, but that thread below is being discussed with actual Beta drivers as stated. I'm just jealous I don't have it yet, and paid for it twice now.

________ Example Only________

At 25:49, his wheel rubs the curb, oopsy. Humans never do that.

FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)

 

[SN_8]

Came across a waterfront home, with a tiny semi-private beach (not exactly sandy, but enough for kids to have a mad amount of fun) since the only other person possibly accessing that same part would be my to-be neighbor. The TSLA investor side of me is telling me, this might end up a lot more expensive in the long run. But the parent side of me tells me that my kids will only grow up once, and even though maybe 10yrs down the road, I can buy waterfront properties like buying a beer, I won't have little kids to write memories with.

What's good about all the money in the world if I can't enjoy it.

Thanks for this, and Congrats! I've been "struggling" with the same decisions recently. Like most of us here, TSLA has been very good to me. I was fortunate to buy my 3 in 2018 and quickly realize that Tesla was the clear leader in electrification... And automotive software... And autonomy. And I was more fortunate to throw the kitchen sink at TSLA in 2019 convinced it was severely undervalued. And I'm even more fortunate to have found this forum soon after which gave me the confidence to Hold. (A sincere thank you to everyone here.)

It's all given me and my family more options than I could have ever imagined at this stage in life. And although Tesla and TSLA are just at the beginning of their run, you're right... Time is not a renewable resource and so taking a little TSLA off the table in exchange for family memories now sounds like a worthy trade-off to me. And one that I'll probably be making some time this year as well.

Congratulations again.

 

[Tslynk67]

No, no, no margin. Most collateral accounts do not allow margin or options. Just check with your broker and see if they offer line-of-credit loans with your shares as collateral. The loan is treated sort of like margin (loan amount available based on your portfolio value, if portfolio value falls, you may be required to pay off part of loan). But as mentioned above, *usually* the interest rates appear quite low and no minimum payments are required.

My strategy will be:
1) at the beginning of the year, borrow amount needed for that year’s income supplement
2) pay off (at least) loan interest amount every month to avoid interest-on-interest
3) when loan amount get uncomfortably high (whatever that means), look for opportune time to sell some shares and pay it down

The point being that TSLA SP is compounding at some ridiculous annual rate while your loan amount is compounding at 2-3%. The longer you feel you can delay selling shares to pay down the loan, the richer you stay.

Not without risks - black swans, etc. Hence the “uncomfortably high” comment above.

@Lycanthrope will tell you do options. He may very well be right. I honestly don’t understand them well, so won’t bet my retirement on them.

As others have pointed out, there is a thread dedicated to these discussions.

edit: what @Artful Dodger said

Concrete example: you have 2000 $TSLA shares, you sell 20x Jan 2021 $1675 strikes ~92 per contract = $184k - actually I wouldn't sell these now, as premiums just took a bit of a hit, you'd time it when it's on the up, like this last Tuesday, pricing was closer to $100, so $200k to last you 12 months (enough, too much, I don't know your situation, but it's about the number I'd be looking for)

Possible outcomes:
- your shares get called away before the strike date and you receive $3.35M cash
- the SP drops, IV crushes, the premiums on these calls goes so low, you decided to rebuy them, you keep the delta with the initial premium (note that the drop accelerates towards the expiry date due to time-decay)
- you hold to expiry: a) the SP is below the strike price - you keep the cash or b) the SP is above the strike price, your shares are gone, you get $3.35M cash

It basically hinges on whether you think the SP would double over the next year and whether you'd be happy to let your shares go at that price.

If they did get called away, and you receive all that cash, then you can immediately sell cash-covered puts for more income. In the case of puts, I would sell them shorter time-frame as you can be more aggressive with the pricing, working on the basis that you want to get those shares back.

Where it gets complicated is whether you have taxes due on the realised gains in the situation where your shares get called away. In my case not, so this type of trading is a no-brainer.

 

[Criscmt]

- your shares get called away before the strike date and you receive $3.35M cash

What are the odds that your shares will get called away well before the strike date, and you won't have the chance to buy back those calls (be it at a loss)? Perhaps very low?

 

[Criscmt]

TSLA-only account typically lets you borrow up to 35%, at least with E*Trade. Interest rate offered at the moment is 2.2%, easy to beat with appreciation of share value. You won’t have to make interest payments, but be aware the owed interest will compound.

Maybe this was mentioned somewhere in one of the posts, what are the differences between this Equities backed line-of-credit and borrowing on margin? One I can think of is line-of-credit not having similar risk of margin rate changing without much notice? Is that the case? What else?

 

[mrdoubleb]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1357503277722718212

It's so cute how they think this is news and the TMC reconnaissance fleet (paging captain @gabeincal) hasn't already provided the footage.

 

[Buckminster]

1:05 - Chamath working on batteries.

 

[Buckminster]

Concrete example: you have 2000 $TSLA shares, you sell 20x Jan 2021 $1675 strikes ~92 per contract = $184k - actually I wouldn't sell these now, as premiums just took a bit of a hit, you'd time it when it's on the up, like this last Tuesday, pricing was closer to $100, so $200k to last you 12 months (enough, too much, I don't know your situation, but it's about the number I'd be looking for)

Possible outcomes:
- your shares get called away before the strike date and you receive $3.35M cash
- the SP drops, IV crushes, the premiums on these calls goes so low, you decided to rebuy them, you keep the delta with the initial premium (note that the drop accelerates towards the expiry date due to time-decay)
- you hold to expiry: a) the SP is below the strike price - you keep the cash or b) the SP is above the strike price, your shares are gone, you get $3.35M cash

It basically hinges on whether you think the SP would double over the next year and whether you'd be happy to let your shares go at that price.

If they did get called away, and you receive all that cash, then you can immediately sell cash-covered puts for more income. In the case of puts, I would sell them shorter time-frame as you can be more aggressive with the pricing, working on the basis that you want to get those shares back.

Where it gets complicated is whether you have taxes due on the realised gains in the situation where your shares get called away. In my case not, so this type of trading is a no-brainer.

Best explanation of this sorcery I have seen. Post of Particular Merit?

 

[Tslynk67]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

Gave it a love! I think the guy's auditioning for a job with GLJ Research.

Next-level FUD and presented really well, deserves some credit for that, every point has some basis of truth, but the devil is in the details and having that underlying knowledge that most out there don't.

In the end it reinforced my belief in Tesla - every point he brought up I was able to consider and refute, even the build-quality and customer service aspects I believe will be a distant memory going forwards.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I might just do that later on. Right now I'm minimizing my debt while negotiating a mortgage.

I know. But not an option (sic) on the type of investment account I use. And it sounds too much like work.

These are a couple of good threads on the retirement issues:

How to best sell down when retired - and options are not possible

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

Early retirement strategies

Still not a great reason to sell ANY shares--"debt" in the forms suggested to you are not "debt" for any mortgage calculations AFAIK, and the NET value of your portfolio will grow far faster than the tiny interest rate on a SBL (Securities Backed Loan).

Strongly recommend a re-read of the suggestions offered here as selling shares is arguably the worst way to fund retirement . . . .

 

[Tslynk67]

What are the odds that your shares will get called away well before the strike date, and you won't have the chance to buy back those calls (be it at a loss)? Perhaps very low?

I think it's pretty rare - most options trading is for the premiums, IMO, not so much the stock. Would be very interested if someone had the stats on that.

What I have consistently read is that over time 80% of sold calls expire worthless - obviously if you look at $TSLA in isolation and over the last year, this would not hold true, but 1000% rises in 12 months is not the normal run of things

 

[Tslynk67]

Totally on-board with spending some of those gains, but I'm really against depleting capital to do so. IMO you're better taking a mortgage for the property and paying it off with future gains. This is what I've done to buy a house. Interest rates are so low, it's close to free money.

Yes, there's risk of a market crash, bubble-burst, or whatever; but you can structure your portfolio to guard against that.

Not advice, just ideas and indeed, congratulations on your new place, regardless of how you find it - we all earned this place we find ourselves at right now.

My position in TSLA doesn't allow me to be thinking about buying island(s) as some of the peeps here.

But I am taking a part of the position out to enjoy a bit of luxury.

Came across a waterfront home, with a tiny semi-private beach (not exactly sandy, but enough for kids to have a mad amount of fun) since the only other person possibly accessing that same part would be my to-be neighbor. The TSLA investor side of me is telling me, this might end up a lot more expensive in the long run. But the parent side of me tells me that my kids will only grow up once, and even though maybe 10yrs down the road, I can buy waterfront properties like buying a beer, I won't have little kids to write memories with.

What's good about all the money in the world if I can't enjoy it.

Put in an offer, after some back and forth, got a number that's well within my "absolute max". So I'm going for it.

Will come back with a much obligatory beer shot by the beach once we take possession!

And it's crazy... without my investment in TSLA, I don't think I would ever entertain the idea of getting a waterfront property. Thanks for everyone here providing valuable information and opinions to make me keep holding even after 10x my original investment.

Still hold a decent position, but not as significant as yesterday.

Thanks for this, and Congrats! I've been "struggling" with the same decisions recently. Like most of us here, TSLA has been very good to me. I was fortunate to buy my 3 in 2018 and quickly realize that Tesla was the clear leader in electrification... And automotive software... And autonomy. And I was more fortunate to throw the kitchen sink at TSLA in 2019 convinced it was severely undervalued. And I'm even more fortunate to have found this forum soon after which gave me the confidence to Hold. (A sincere thank you to everyone here.)

It's all given me and my family more options than I could have ever imagined at this stage in life. And although Tesla and TSLA are just at the beginning of their run, you're right... Time is not a renewable resource and so taking a little TSLA off the table in exchange for family memories now sounds like a worthy trade-off to me. And one that I'll probably be making some time this year as well.

Congratulations again.