Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1357503277722718212

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree, @Artful Dodger, I’m on the Island of Hawaii now. We do nice sunsets on the west side of the island, here’s one from last month over looking Anaeho’omalu Bay.

View attachment 634053

OT:

Spoiler: Hawai'i Hold'em

Ahahaha, that's one nice picture. Last time I was on the beach at Waikoloa the freakin' Tsunami Warning siren went off.

Needless to say, that's a game of Texas Hold'em that I folded! (woulda been good to have a P model Tesla to haul ass outta there!)

Cheers!

 

[Mo City]

I think posting a short FSD beta video in this thread every 2-3 weeks is appropriate. Mods can delete if they disagree.

This will make you feel good. Only 7 1/2 mins.

 

[HG Wells]

If anyone is curious, it was a Mazda...
NJ Man Dies by Fire After Repeatedly Revving SUV's Engine While Stuck in Snowbank

Gee, I didn't know Mazda made an electric car. /S

 

[Siksfive]

As an early reservation holder of the Rivian R1S, I’m more than a bit annoyed that Amazon was able to jump the line and get their vans first. Rivian even used the excuse of the coronavirus as the reason their consumer vehicles weren’t delivered last year, which I guess was total bollocks given the appearance of the Amazon van.

I don't think the Amazon Van development has much bearing on the timelines of the R1 program (for most part, independent dev teams). The van in question is not nearly as far along as the R1 protos out in the wild.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I expect to my asset-backed line-of-credit limit will be no greater than 50% of the assets in the account (possibly less if it all stays in TSLA). I plan to use about half of that credit limit to allow for (dark grey) swans.

If it gets any worse than that, I'll pull a classic @anthonyj sell half my long shares and buy long calls!

Which way to the BEACH?!

Cheers!

TSLA-only account typically lets you borrow up to 35%, at least with E*Trade. Interest rate offered at the moment is 2.2%, easy to beat with appreciation of share value. You won’t have to make interest payments, but be aware the owed interest will compound.

 

[JustMe]

I think posting a short FSD beta video in this thread every 2-3 weeks is appropriate. Mods can delete if they disagree.

This will make you feel good. Only 7 1/2 mins.

I’m really impressed. Amazing

 

[Opus BC fan]

No, no, no margin. Most collateral accounts do not allow margin or options. Just check with your broker and see if they offer line-of-credit loans with your shares as collateral. The loan is treated sort of like margin (loan amount available based on your portfolio value, if portfolio value falls, you may be required to pay off part of loan). But as mentioned above, *usually* the interest rates appear quite low and no minimum payments are required.

My strategy will be:
1) at the beginning of the year, borrow amount needed for that year’s income supplement
2) pay off (at least) loan interest amount every month to avoid interest-on-interest
3) when loan amount get uncomfortably high (whatever that means), look for opportune time to sell some shares and pay it down

The point being that TSLA SP is compounding at some ridiculous annual rate while your loan amount is compounding at 2-3%. The longer you feel you can delay selling shares to pay down the loan, the richer you stay.

Not without risks - black swans, etc. Hence the “uncomfortably high” comment above.

@Lycanthrope will tell you do options. He may very well be right. I honestly don’t understand them well, so won’t bet my retirement on them.

As others have pointed out, there is a thread dedicated to these discussions.

edit: what @Artful Dodger said

OT
I opened a securities backed line of credit in October with a bank.
Because it was all TSLA the credit limit was 40% and the interest rate is about 3%
If I borrowed all of that credit allowed, it would now be 20% of the value of the pledged TSLA stock.
I pay the interest monthly.
The Black Swan risks rapidly diminish over time with these loans.
They are worth checking out.

 

[scaesare]

Video of new Tesla Semi:

Cool video, however I suspect he's incorrect about that box containing batteries, it's far too small. I suspect the pack is low down in the chassis out off sight.

I suspect power or control electronics in that box... as the cables aren't orange, likely the latter, but then again they seem to be inside wire loom, likely for wear resistance.

 

[dhanson865]

Again today a coworker come to me at and says “sell all your Tesla stock! Now! You’ll be kicking yourself when it goes to zero, Sophia.”

lol! Don’t they know by now I’ve solidified my confidence in my long term position with this company? (Now I do have plenty in my savings to cover more than I will ever need and two solid jobs).
But, I’m never going to sell. Not today, not tomorrow, not next year, not in 5 years. Period! I may not know everything but I do know this.

Tesla is currently the 7th highest ranked company by market cap. I'd be very surprised if they aren't at least* 5th on that list by the end of 2021, 3rd on that list by end of 2022, and the most valuable company in the world by 2023. We will all laugh at your coworker when those milestones are reached whatever the date is.

* at least meaning they could exceed that, but I'd be surprised if they don't at least move up the list at a pretty steady pace.

So I've passed my goal and I'm retired - which means I'm selling a little every month.

In my retirement spreadsheet I ended up with 420.69 as my retirement goal share price - purely a mathematically calculated number I assure you. No memes involved.

I have to say I'm pretty pleased that I can sell for 2x that number this month.

I don't blame you guys earlier on your path to retirement for rejoicing when you can buy at a discount. But I'm rooting for the other team now - the another ATH please crowd.

.

just lazy math for me, my retirement is solid at $1,942 a share assuming I'm supporting myself for 37 years starting about 10 years from now. I expect my background grin and ability to mildly laugh at coworkers telling me about the latest competition will continue to grow well after we hit my minimum retirement target. Heck maybe at some point I retire earlier without waiting for a set age to come.

I don't really care about the price of the stock on a day to day basis. I'm holding for a few more factories at least.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I haven't done anything on this yet. As far as I'm concerned, it's yet another tool in the investor's tool box. It will work for some, not for others, depending on the situation.

I used to be all about minimizing debt. I paid off my credit card purchases every month, paid cash for cars, etc. Every once in a while, I would pay additional to lower our mortgage principal. When you have a diversified portfolio earning market returns (say 7-10%), the idea of using cash to pay down debt or pay for large purchases makes sense, even if the cost of capital is lower than your returns. The idea of borrowing against my stock would not have even crossed my mind.

BUT, as @Artful Dodger and others have pointed out, if you expect (as I think most of us here do) TSLA to have much greater returns, using cheap debt to finance purchases/expenses may be the right call.

I got a Model S couple years ago and then got my wife a Model Y Aug last year. Collectively would cost us more than 1M dollars had I not taken out a loan. Before the Teslas we would always pay cash for cars.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm holding for a few more factories at least.

I love this as a new retirement metric....much better than your run of the mill Gordon Standard Unit.

"So I plan on retiring at 10 Giga factory's...you?"

 

[2daMoon]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

 

[Mo City]

This was discussed here last year. I continue to believe an agreement is near certain. It just makes too much sense. For good reason, Tesla is Indonesia's biggest target and Indonesia has the nickel Tesla craves/needs so badly.

Indonesia receives investment proposal from Tesla: official

 

[MC3OZ]

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

Every time I watch one of his videos, I'm lucky to last 2 minutes...

On the other hand hand GJ videos are worth watching for the total look of distain on the face of the Moose.

Anyone who makes the competition argument without considering the possibility that EVs will simply take more ICE sales, might be smarter than GJ, but they are dumber than the Moose.

 

[Tommy O]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

Never worth watching Alex's videos. His whole game is trying to capitalize on the growing EV trend. He feeds off of controversy, so creating it himself is a good strategy.

Feel free to reach out, Alex, I'm posting under my real name!

 

[SMAlset]

I think posting a short FSD beta video in this thread every 2-3 weeks is appropriate. Mods can delete if they disagree.

This will make you feel good. Only 7 1/2 mins.

Did anyone else catch the car didn't stop for the stop sign right at the very beginning? Watch the speed on the instrument panel. Otherwise pretty impressive.

 

[Tommy O]

Did anyone else catch the car didn't stop for the stop sign right at the very beginning? Watch the speed on the instrument panel.

Yeah, it was blatant. @verygreen posted on twitter some great screengrabs of the dev controls. I think Cali stops were included as an option. Video poster is in Cali, right?

Not saying that's good or even that the car was instructed to do a Cali stop.

 

[SMAlset]

If anyone is curious, it was a Mazda...
NJ Man Dies by Fire After Repeatedly Revving SUV's Engine While Stuck in Snowbank

Yeah, the Peacock was reporting it. Saw a different article from NBCNews this morning but their reporter at least thought to mention it. Different reporter than mentioned in the above. Driver stuck in snow burns to death after repeatedly revving SUV's engine

So what?... flooded his engine and gasoline hit a hot piece of metal and ignited? Man, the snow didn't look all that deep on the passenger side and what a sad way to lose your life. Can't figure out why he didn't exit the car immediately at the sign of smoke from the hood. Story made me think of the Tesla reports where emergency responders to a car fire couldn't open the car door, kind of similar situation here.

 

[dhanson865]

I love this as a new retirement metric....much better than your run of the mill Gordon Standard Unit.

"So I plan on retiring at 10 Giga factory's...you?"

That's really how I look at it. When I can't see growth coming I'll start to pull money out. Or when I get so old I don't want to work any more I'll pull money out. Not sure which will happen first.

When there is 1 or less gigafactory in the building phase it's time to do my retirement planning over again. Double check my math, gauge my options again.

I mean I think Tesla will plateau before I retire. They won't hurt my feelings if they are still a growth stock when I'm too old to work.