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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Not sure if this was posted here(200+ views on YT so probably not)

PCAUTO getting exclusive visit to Teslas China-Made Model Y Gigafactory
The video is in Chinese but JayinShanghai did a great job summarizing it in the description part, and I will be happy to translate any specific timestamp should you want to understand more details, otherwise just the video should be very informative.

Recently there have been some FUD hit pieces in China, most prominently the article from PingWest on Giga SH being a sweat shop. I think interviews like this is a great way to counter those FUD.

Along with a lawsuit, of course.

1. Funny I have seen robots in Freemont videos doing the same thing I see humans doing such as installing the Instrument panel.
2. AT LAST VIDEOS OF TESLA Quality Control !!!!! Why do we not see Freemont videos of Quality Control?
3. Gasp!!! Are they checking for........................Gaps!?
 
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;);)

not really depleting capital. As mentioned, I’m keeping a decent chunk of it, but the housing price up here is completely nuts. Bring a waterfront ID even worse regardless how little summer we actually get.

The decision was between a larger regular house (kids are growing out of our current place, hence the house hunting) without selling any tsla vs. a waterfront larger house by selling a chunk. Both still financed to the extent that our income can comfortably pay for it.

Then it came down to the idea of my original post. By sticking with ALL my tsla holding, I might be able to buy a waterfront in a snap 10yrs down. But by then, kids are off to college. What’s the point of buying a waterfront property by then?

I still have enough that if tsla becomes a 10t company, I can benefit greatly and enjoy my retirement. Just instead of flying private jets, I’d have to make do with peasants first class. :)
If you're doing it for your kids then once they hit their 20's I'm sure you can sell your waterfront property at a nice gain, move to somewhere less expensive and live large.
 
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This reminds me... New York State still has an antiquated dealership protectionist law that limits Tesla to 5 stores in the entire state. If you live next to the Buffalo factory, you have to drive 5+ hours or leave the state/country to find a Tesla store. There is still so much room for growth in the US as these laws are slowly changed. It seems like Tesla has stopped spending resources fighting these laws because they can't keep up with demand as is.

Bullish AF.
Try only an hour for a gallery and home delivery is an option: Tesla Henrietta. But your point is well taken.
 
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Well we know that happened for the Model Y plant while the Model 3 line was down for the national holiday in early October. But I have yet to see anything saying the new factory will work over the New Year holiday. I'd think it'd be a tough time for logistics anyway, with so many workers traveling to their home towns/villages and unavailable to work.
Here's the post from Jan 21st where @ByeByeJohnny says the video from Wu Wa says Giga Shanghai will stay open during Chinese New Year...
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
 
I need someone to talk me off the ledge.
My finger is poised over the order button for a new MS.

Not the plaid but the long range...it is faster than my 2017MS...but I don't need faster than my current.."are you freaking kidding me"
It has longer range...but do I need the extra hundred miles??

Tesla is offering 2.49 interest rate...so no need to sell any sweet sweet shares.

OT because I MIGHT sell some chairs to put more down.

Do it!



Don't do it!

fixitology_socialmedia_pinto.jpg
 
I speculated on a total end-to-end process starting out with Lithium Clays and ending up with reasonably pure Lithium Hydroxide here:-
The Resource Angle

The last 2 lines are relevant for this forum:-

The point of my speculation isn't that this is the process Tesla will definitely use, just that a few different pathways exist.

So my hunch is Tesla probably has a lab version of an end-to-end process starting with the Lithium Clays and ending up with pure enough Lithium Hydroxide.
 
Here's the post from Jan 21st where @ByeByeJohnny says the video from Wu Wa says Giga Shanghai will stay open during Chinese New Year...
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Here's what Wu wa wrote on Jan 21, 2021:

"Starting tomorrow, the Shanghai plant will be closed for four days for equipment maintenance. And the upcoming important traditional Chinese holiday: Chinese New Year, a holiday that is like Christmas. According to Chinese national law, there are 7 days off, but the Shanghai plant will only have 2 days off during the Chinese New Year holiday, which may be to increase production during the Chinese New Year holiday. So according to Chinese law, overtime during the Chinese New Year will be tripled or doubled, so do the workers in the Shanghai factory want to get the holiday, or double the pay?"​
 
Here's what Wu wa wrote on Jan 21, 2021:

"Starting tomorrow, the Shanghai plant will be closed for four days for equipment maintenance. And the upcoming important traditional Chinese holiday: Chinese New Year, a holiday that is like Christmas. According to Chinese national law, there are 7 days off, but the Shanghai plant will only have 2 days off during the Chinese New Year holiday, which may be to increase production during the Chinese New Year holiday. So according to Chinese law, overtime during the Chinese New Year will be tripled or doubled, so do the workers in the Shanghai factory want to get the holiday, or double the pay?"​
Oh god, tripling their pay may just cost the same as an employee at Fremont.
 
Here's what Wu wa wrote on Jan 21, 2021:

"Starting tomorrow, the Shanghai plant will be closed for four days for equipment maintenance. And the upcoming important traditional Chinese holiday: Chinese New Year, a holiday that is like Christmas. According to Chinese national law, there are 7 days off, but the Shanghai plant will only have 2 days off during the Chinese New Year holiday, which may be to increase production during the Chinese New Year holiday. So according to Chinese law, overtime during the Chinese New Year will be tripled or doubled, so do the workers in the Shanghai factory want to get the holiday, or double the pay?"​
Chinese New Year is the most important holiday in China, I would imagine most workers will want to travel home and see their families. Many of these people literally only see their families once a year during this holiday if they left a village, town, or smaller city to work in Shanghai. They won't care about 2x or even 3x pay compared to that.
 
I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

My understanding is that since Tesla knows how you drive, they can give low rates to the drivers they judge as least likely to have a claim. This, of course, necessitates charging more for those drivers that Tesla determines are more likely to have a claim. We do know they base it on much more than age, sex, marital status and driving record because they use their driving data.

What we don't know is how they determine the likelihood of a claim from the driving data. but I would suggest they use artificial intelligence to identify for 'markers' that are highly correlated with risk. Then they assign a level of risk to each driver by running that driver's data through their filters. They have access to the traction control data, they know the speed limit and your actual speed, they know how hard you brake and accelerate, how often you talk on your phone, what kind of roads you spend most of your time on, and in what situations your driving behavior meets certain criteria.

For purposes of illustration and for the sake of simplicity, let's assume all cars on the road are Tesla's. All this implies to me that they can only take about half the market initially. However, that will leave the riskiest drivers to the other insurers who will have to raise their rates as they figure this out. At that point, Tesla will be able to capture more of the customers in the middle risk group which will cause the other insurers to have to raise premiums again and so forth until other insurers have either gone out of business or are only insuring the very riskiest drivers with very high premiums.

However, in the real world, Tesla will only have driver data on a fraction of all drivers (those who drive a Tesla). Unless Tesla runs a more efficient insurance company than the competition, they will not be able to make big gains into the portion of the market that they don't have driver data on. Of course, this could be wrong because maybe Tesla will be able to us AI to better assess the true risk of each driver using traditional metrics and this could allow them to acquire more low-risk drivers by offering them lower premiums than traditional insurers.

I know how I drive and I think my antics might place me in a high risk group (regardless of whether I belong there or not). Perhaps your premiums are so high for similar reasons. Tesla has to WANT to insure you in order to offer lower premiums than the competition. :(
 
By that logic - why do Tesla sell cars in Norway? Robotaxis won't work here half the year. Snow and slush make the autopilot blind. So much better then to restrict sales to areas with a milder climate? So that the cars can work all the time and not only a few months per year?

I've been impressed with how well Autopilot drives in the snow and slush already (including other low visibility conditions like a drenching rain). As the system improves I believe it will eventually be more safe than most humans. Tesla might need to retrofit side camera heaters in order to handle the nastier snow/slush conditions.
 
My understanding is that since Tesla knows how you drive, they can give low rates to the drivers they judge as least likely to have a claim. This, of course, necessitates charging more for those drivers that Tesla determines are more likely to have a claim. We do know they base it on much more than age, sex, marital status and driving record because they use their driving data.

What we don't know is how they determine the likelihood of a claim from the driving data. but I would suggest they use artificial intelligence to identify for 'markers' that are highly correlated with risk. Then they assign a level of risk to each driver by running that driver's data through their filters. They have access to the traction control data, they know the speed limit and your actual speed, they know how hard you brake and accelerate, how often you talk on your phone, what kind of roads you spend most of your time on, and in what situations your driving behavior meets certain criteria.

For purposes of illustration and for the sake of simplicity, let's assume all cars on the road are Tesla's. All this implies to me that they can only take about half the market initially. However, that will leave the riskiest drivers to the other insurers who will have to raise their rates as they figure this out. At that point, Tesla will be able to capture more of the customers in the middle risk group which will cause the other insurers to have to raise premiums again and so forth until other insurers have either gone out of business or are only insuring the very riskiest drivers with very high premiums.

However, in the real world, Tesla will only have driver data on a fraction of all drivers (those who drive a Tesla). Unless Tesla runs a more efficient insurance company than the competition, they will not be able to make big gains into the portion of the market that they don't have driver data on. Of course, this could be wrong because maybe Tesla will be able to us AI to better assess the true risk of each driver using traditional metrics and this could allow them to acquire more low-risk drivers by offering them lower premiums than traditional insurers.

I know how I drive and I think my antics might place me in a high risk group (regardless of whether I belong there or not). Perhaps your premiums are so high for similar reasons. Tesla has to WANT to insure you in order to offer lower premiums than the competition. :(

I think it should be clarified, Tesla doesn't know how YOU drive, they only how a specific car is driven. There could be multiple drivers sharing the vehicle. Or if you were the only driver of two different Tesla's, you might drive them very differently.
 
I think it should be clarified, Tesla doesn't know how YOU drive, they only how a specific car is driven. There could be multiple drivers sharing the vehicle. Or if you were the only driver of two different Tesla's, you might drive them very differently.

True in theory but in practice that barely muddies the water to any significant degree.
 
I think it should be clarified, Tesla doesn't know how YOU drive, they only how a specific car is driven. There could be multiple drivers sharing the vehicle. Or if you were the only driver of two different Tesla's, you might drive them very differently.

You nominate a driver profile for seat mirrors settings etc.

When 2 drivers are different heights, they will probably have different profiles,.

Regardless, insurance needs to be the sum of all likely drivers, so whether or not they would analyze different drivers is hard to say,