Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I'm guessing those $20 calls were planted long ago to hit the automotive weakest sales in Q1. This was planned along with Edmunds review and the follow up stories that have already referred to that bogus data. I'm close to more buying here - it's pure nonsense FUD.

Oh, man, it came and went, right back at 800.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Lol, that didn't take long:

View attachment 636101

Yup. Scrounged up some loose change

 

[mongo]

Agreed, but the amount of efficiency to be gained in those areas is not "blow it out of the water" type gains:

Indeed, the amount of potential improvement is limited to the amount of loss. That graph seems to neglect round trip wall-> battery-> motor efficiency. Powerwall is ~90% efficient roundtrip. Also, as the drive cycle shifts to a taxi service at urban speeds, the drivetrain, rolling, and aero losses become less of a factor and the HVAC (not shown?) and electronics loads become more impactful.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wondering how many stop losses they picked just now. So obvious...

 

[lafrisbee]

Giga Berlin got another preliminary permit to install equipment in stamping, painting and body in white shops today.
Casting is not included.

Tesla erhält Zulassung zum Einbau weiterer Maschinen

I have one question...how long must my German Wife be pregnant before I get the Marriage Certificate? Or is it issued after proof of concept in final production numbers?

 

[cricketman]

That is seriously impressive.

A good ICE is about 25% thermally efficient even before it turns a wheel. That means that every fill of the tank 3/4 of the fuel may as well just fall straight out again.

The M3 on the other hand: wow. As you say, not much scope for huge improvements there. Still, every little counts.

And apparently cars run on hydrogen power are around 50% thermally efficient, so while twice as good as an ICE car, it will be 4-5 times less efficient than an electric car per unit of electricity consumed.

And even that is assuming a 100% efficient use of electricity to create the hydrogen power source, and to keep it stored under pressure, and distribute it...

 

[scaesare]

Indeed, the amount of potential improvement is limited to the amount of loss. That graph seems to neglect round trip wall-> battery-> motor efficiency. Powerwall is ~90% efficient roundtrip. Also, as the drive cycle shifts to a taxi service at urban speeds, the drivetrain, rolling, and aero losses become less of a factor and the HVAC (not shown?) and electronics loads become more impactful.

But those are all factors external to the point I was responding to (that the change to 4680's would make a major impact on the car's energy usage per unit of distance), no?

 

[lafrisbee]

Easy solution, remove the driver... I'm betting on the red car from Tesla!
Driverless racing coming soon...

Coming when?

 

[traxila]

All my wish orders were too aggressive. Sigh.

Nice head fake this am for market overall.

oh well, day is not over. But Fridays tend to be kill options day. Usually pick a pivot point and hang out around there all day while the HFTs make a killing.

Everyone tread carefully. I think this market is looking sick.

Not saying run for the hills, but maybe now not the time to be over leveraged.

Not an advice! Obviously, since I know so little....

Dollar cost average into the SPY. That will get ya returns eventually...

 

[scaesare]

Elon Musk has never been a climate change zealot. He created Tesla to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy simply as a practical solution to a practical problem - he noticed at an early age that the world is running out of stuff to burn.

I've seen him refer to the atmospheric carbon #'s and Keeling curve in most discussions of why he feels the move to sustainable transport is important. He typically discusses the eventual oil depletion scenario as an additional reason this is a "stupid experiment" the human race is running.

So while he may not be a "climate change zealot" in the wacky sense of the word many think of, he knows all too well the implications of the rising CO2 ppm in the atmosphere, and is all-in on doing something about it... I'd say that's zealous...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Simple Charts... Breakout soonish > $900.

So far, negative news appears baseless. Efforts to keep it down won't stick bc there are too many Tesla's on the road now. Was an old tactic, but not as useful now that Tesla's are everywhere. People are smart; they don't read Edmunds and say 'Hey, let's buy a Taycan with it's amazing range!" Instead, they ask their friends and neighbors, then get on YouTube etc...

Meanwhile, we get more range questions out there on the road. Range is still the number 1 question I get from people, and that question was caused by the last 5 years of FUD. Keep in mind, all that effort and deception, and still Tesla #1. Go figure.

 

[traxila]

I've seen him refer to the atmospheric carbon #'s and Keeling curve in most discussions of why he feels the move to sustainable transport is an important. He typically discusses the eventual oil depletion scenario as an additional reason this is a "stupid experiment" the human race is running.

So while he may not be a "climate change zealot" in the wacky sense of the word many think, he knows all too well the implications of the rising CO2 ppm in the atmosphere, and is all in on doming something about it... I'd say that's zealous...

I believe Elon may have signed on to a future of limitless energy with overbuilt renewables a la Tony Seba and Rethink X.

If we have too much electricity flying around, we will be looking for stuff to pour energy into. Like carbon sequestration.

The arguments for it are compelling, IMO.

This makes the BTC purchase more understandable, and if the Rethink X projections are true, then wise indeed.

Elon is an optimist, and this is an optimistic viewpoint.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Coming when?

Very cool, didn't know.
But they still have windshields... why?

 

[lklundin]

Agreed, but the amount of efficiency to be gained in those areas is not "blow it out of the water" type gains:

This shows very well the Model3 efficiency. Would it be possible to create the same diagram for the more common cruising speed of 130 km/h (ca. 80mph) ?
- at this speed the aerodynamic drag would be even more dominant, further highlighting the efficiency.

 

[Rammstein]

The stock price from my observations does move towards max pain most of the time. The time it does not is unexpected news comes out that pushes it higher or lower than max pain. Currently max pain is 830 and I know the day isn’t over yet but if this Max pain is a thing then why aren’t the MM’s pushing TSLA up?

 

[Paracelsus]

Gary Black seems to have gone completely bipolar on TSLA just prior to the Biden infrastructure announcement he previously claimed was going to be TSLA's huge catalyst...................and he is now going 'Full Gordy' on TSLA this morning in what appears to be an effort to try to bring it into the mid-700's in my opinion

*Near term risk/reward not compelling?
*Better opportunities elsewhere?
*A very different $7,500 EV tax plan coming?
*TSLA getting hurt in EU because no M-Y CUV yet?
*TSLA went up 743% last year because Market thought TSLA's rates would accelerate, but now it has only matched its 2020 guidance of 500,000?
* "I still think TSLA is undervalued. But I think the stock can drop to the mid-700's as investors reset expectations about 1H, given obvious headwinds" ?
* Blah, blah, blah

Like the FUD from Lora, and Dana, and Gordy, I don't think this will age well, and I am very curious how the timing of this complete flip flop will reveal itself when we look back on TSLA's chart at the end of this year. Thoughts on this @SteveG3 & @EinSV ?

 

[Unpilot]

LOL nice babble speak there from Garry...."your confusing price and value"
"obvious headwinds" ..."reset expectations"

Give it a rest man.

 

[lafrisbee]

Very cool, didn't know.
But they still have windshields... why?

So the spectator can still "see" it as a car. Otherwise they are land submarines. And too foreign for people to get excited about watching.
(Just my first guess)

 

[22522]

When Elon talked about momentum and kinetic energy, it somehow reminded me of Entropy and zero temperature difference heat transfer. Temperature difference is a measure of kinetic energy difference at the micro scale.

Elon was talking about airplanes and engine sizes, explaining how the 747 was the fastest [because it keeps the wingtips out of the shock cone] but the engines were too small to be fuel efficient, you want a shrouded prop high bypass ratio engine.

So the Tesla airplane will be a flying wing with gimbal controlled electric motors rather than aerodynamic control surfaces.

 

[Twooz]

Gary Black seems to have gone completely bipolar on TSLA just prior to the Biden infrastructure announcement he previously claimed was going to be TSLA's huge catalyst...................and he is now going 'Full Gordy' on TSLA this morning in what appears to be an effort to try to bring it into the mid-700's in my opinion

*Near term risk/reward not compelling?
*Better opportunities elsewhere?
*A very different $7,500 EV tax plan coming?
*TSLA getting hurt in EU because no M-Y CUV yet?
*TSLA went up 743% last year because Market thought TSLA's rates would accelerate, but now it has only matched its 2020 guidance of 500,000?
* "I still think TSLA is undervalued. But I think the stock can drop to the mid-700's as investors reset expectations about 1H, given obvious headwinds" ?
* Blah, blah, blah

Like the FUD from Lora, and Dana, and Gordy, I don't think this will age well, and I am very curious how the timing of this complete flip flop will reveal itself when we look back on TSLA's chart at the end of this year. Thoughts on this @SteveG3 & @EinSV ?

View attachment 636106

I lost all respect for him when he started claiming we missed delivery guidance of 500K.