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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Cathie on Bloomberg Part 2
- Rotation into value: make sure these companies are primed into entering new world
- Energy and Financial services will be disruptive given EV and digital wallets
- ARK is more embraced by retail because retail sees the future more than institutions, because post tech/telecom bust - institutions forced to benchmark to indices
- Although they have had redemptions, they are surprised at how low the redemptions have been
- ARK is using this period to average in to some of the most important companies of our life time
- Doesn't believe that anyone is doing the kind of research they are - glad that more capital is moving into innovation but believes that they are more disciplined
- US must figure out how to get out of mess coronavirus has put us in
- Tax is not the right way (must grow our way out)
- Believes in V shaped recovery and earnings will be explosive
- Value and Growth can both grow but there are minefields in Value
- Hiring diverse points of view is critical (looking for an innovation analyst and a next gen innovations analyst)
- Would love to interview more women that are interested in innovation
- Rotation into value: make sure these companies are primed into entering new world
- Energy and Financial services will be disruptive given EV and digital wallets
- ARK is more embraced by retail because retail sees the future more than institutions, because post tech/telecom bust - institutions forced to benchmark to indices
- Although they have had redemptions, they are surprised at how low the redemptions have been
- ARK is using this period to average in to some of the most important companies of our life time
- Doesn't believe that anyone is doing the kind of research they are - glad that more capital is moving into innovation but believes that they are more disciplined
- US must figure out how to get out of mess coronavirus has put us in
- Tax is not the right way (must grow our way out)
- Believes in V shaped recovery and earnings will be explosive
- Value and Growth can both grow but there are minefields in Value
- Hiring diverse points of view is critical (looking for an innovation analyst and a next gen innovations analyst)
- Would love to interview more women that are interested in innovation
Even with the entire world closed during a black swan event, Tsla found support at 200 ma. 407 is a little too low to call that the bottom. The bottom may be in the 470s but it's pretty ridiculous the correction is covid level kind of event but who knows.
That ridiculously fast 53% drop was due to COVID. Don't see why you pick that number.... unless you figure it is as good as any other. So much of this is macro related. If the techs and QQQs firm up, Tesla will be there with them.
For what it's worth, I see TSLA stock facing large headwinds until 2022, at which point I think it will turn into rocket ship.... once Texas is belting out Model Ys like crazy.... but I just don't see EV tax credit happening, though I really hope I'm wrong. There will be a lot of FUD regarding Truck delay and other delays... prepare yourself to be severely annoyed and keep buying.
Not too confident in FSD rolling out to 100,000s of cars that exposes people’s friends to it?
Or a ramp ahead of schedule of new battery tech?
Or energy sector showing huge growth?
None of that may happen or it may happen but not give a tailwind. But I think all three of those are more likely to give a tailwind that production numbers. Those are all 0 => 1 innovation leaps vs just bringing another production line in another factory to make an existing product
The only headwind right now is this tech rotation. Appl is down 20% and they are printing money faster than half of the recovery companies combined. So until that sentiment change, Tsla will be dragged along with the ride.
The 1 and 2 YR charts were definitely showing a bounce around the upper 500's or low 600's.....so wasn't that surprised that we broke 695. Was disappointed but not surprised. Having said that, I don't really see anything in the charts that really make me think low 400 is remotely in play and I don't think it's a good idea to use the Covid drop as an exapmle.......That's the most extreme situation where people were freaking out that Tesla was only going to delivery like 50,000 cars and post a huge loss.
The post stock split sell off is to me the most relatable. That sell off/consolidation lasted 2 months and we're exactly at the 2 month mark for this sell off from it's peak on Jan 8th. Anything past 2 months is an extremely long time to have a sell off.
What headwinds are you talking about? Only one I can see is chip shortage being a possible issue which we still need more clarity on. Even then, that's a 1-2 quarter temporary issue. I literally cannot think of any other headwind Tesla is facing for 2021 or 2022:
- EV Infrastructure Bill
- FSD getting wide release/more eyes on it
- 4680 Cell production apparently going smoother and faster than expected
- Multiple reports of Semi going into production in Q3
- Rumors of Berlin first production in May, Austin in Sept
Like I only see tailwinds for the company and just increase its chances of doing 1 million deliveries in 2021.
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Only headwind I see is S/X taking longer than expected with the retooling/optimization and it's killing margins in the near term.
Nice to be back, I missed this place.
Over the last couple of months I've been buying in chunks all the way down. In the high 700s, the low 700s, the high 600s, the low 600s and finally last friday @ 573. I intend to carry on if if drops below 550, and so on. I have a very high proportion of my life savings tied up in Tesla and keep expecting to get stressed about the falling price, but it's just not happening. I suppose it must be conviction, which is a great think to have in an investment. You never know what the bottom will be but once it's reached and it starts going up again, it will feel great to watch all those purchases turn green, one after the other.
Over the last couple of months I've been buying in chunks all the way down. In the high 700s, the low 700s, the high 600s, the low 600s and finally last friday @ 573. I intend to carry on if if drops below 550, and so on. I have a very high proportion of my life savings tied up in Tesla and keep expecting to get stressed about the falling price, but it's just not happening. I suppose it must be conviction, which is a great think to have in an investment. You never know what the bottom will be but once it's reached and it starts going up again, it will feel great to watch all those purchases turn green, one after the other.
It becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy at some point. Every Single Day the drum-beat of "growth to value. The 10-year yield. Managers with monthly targets focusing on the rotation. Time (for now) to own the banks and oil". Blah, blah, blah.
No, it's time to move on. Open the damn economy and fire up the engine of success.
I definitely feel the S/X retooling issues are baked into this drop. As for margins, the were heavily discounting the old S/X in Q4 to move their remaining volume so the margins were taking a hit. Since the won't have produced hardly any S/X any Q1, it shouldn't affect gross margins that much. Operational margin will take a hit since it has to account for still paying the S/X line workers, unless the Giga presses are running at full steam to give operating margin a boost. From a earnings standpoint, we have the benefit of less interest paid in the Q1 since they paid down debt in Q4 and less Elon comp than in Q3/Q4.
Tesla also has the tax allowance to use when they want.
GrandEnigma
Member
Since when is Elon and Tesla a climate denier? All I want to do is drive home in a warmed car
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Will seats become a bottleneck ?
www.caranddriver.com
Seat Foam Shortage Could Cut Car Production, and Texas Grid Failure Is Blamed
The recent Texas grid shutdown meant oil refineries didn't make byproducts needed for car and truck seating, and now automakers are scrambling for alternatives.
www.caranddriver.com
Honestly, the biggest headwind I see and saw for TSLA was the SP blowing up to 900. Stocks don't do what TSLA did and not retrench. I sold covered calls on the way up on 3500 shares. Sold them WAY too early. I still have them all... they have all turned heavily positive, so this is my silver lining.
That and the fact that I get to plow the money off the covered calls into more TSLA! A process I have begun....
Do not be surprised that the stock is getting hit like this. Do not be surprised when it takes off again.
Oh, who am I kidding, I am blown out of my socks every time either way.
That and the fact that I get to plow the money off the covered calls into more TSLA!
A process I have begun....Do not be surprised that the stock is getting hit like this. Do not be surprised when it takes off again.
Oh, who am I kidding, I am blown out of my socks every time either way.
Don't need foam padding for your seat if you've got a triple bottom.Will seats become a bottleneck ?
Seat Foam Shortage Could Cut Car Production, and Texas Grid Failure Is Blamed
The recent Texas grid shutdown meant oil refineries didn't make byproducts needed for car and truck seating, and now automakers are scrambling for alternatives.
Seems like S/X refreshed is based on an all AMD system, including the CPU.
Will seats become a bottleneck ?
Seat Foam Shortage Could Cut Car Production, and Texas Grid Failure Is Blamed
The recent Texas grid shutdown meant oil refineries didn't make byproducts needed for car and truck seating, and now automakers are scrambling for alternatives.
I might replace my 4 year old TMX with something newer. Leather seats accepted.
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