Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

Rumors that Tesla is building a Cybertruck pilot line at Fremont so that they can hit the ground running with Cybertruck production when Texas GF opens:

Tesla's Cybertruck strategy is paving the way for pilot production that's closer to home than expected

Elon Musk may still have accuracy issues when estimating the rollout dates of products like the Full Self-Driving Beta, but there is no denying that the Tesla CEO is starting to learn the art of sandbagging, at least to some degree. This is something that Elon Musk appears to be doing with the...

www.teslarati.com

"While unorthodox, Tesla’s recently reported strategy for the Cybertruck’s rollout actually makes quite a lot of sense. Having a line in Fremont for prototype validation vehicles would all but ensure that the Cybertruck’s lines in Gigafactory Texas would not require any substantial changes or adjustments when they are activated for mass production. But this is not all. The Fremont Factory is also a stone’s throw away from Tesla’s Roadrunner site, where the company is currently developing and ramping the production of its custom dry-electrode, tabless 4680 cells—the batteries that would most likely be used on the Cybertruck."

 

[Unpilot]

There are function on this site that make it so much easier to read...and.speed up power scrolling.

 

[corduroy]

VW accidentally leaks new name for its U.S. operations: Voltswagen

A now unpublished press release called the change a "public declaration of the company's future-forward investment in e-mobility."

www.cnbc.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Long liquidation is the issue, raising margin on volatile stocks .

With a hair more reading it looks like Billy Hwang is just a nutjob that never should've been extended the credit Goldman decided to dump on him. So obviously even leveraged long-short hedgies still need to be fairly incorrect in order to face an existential liquidity issue.

What was this guy wrong on?

 

[space_s3x]

I am literally quoting the SAE definition word for word- so no, I'm not "skewing" anything.





That's their exact words on what L5 must be able to do.

"doesn't enter confusing parking lots" is a geographical restriction on where it can operate. Meaning it does not meet the definition of L5 per SAEs own words.








I'm not sure what you mean by "performance" or how you think it's relevant?


The definition of L5 requires the feature works in public parking lots. Period.

It might do so perfectly- or do so like a drunken idiot- or anywhere in between and still be L5, but "simply can't drive there at all" as you suggested is not an option- that would BY DEFINITION make it L4.


I've made no argument, of any kind, about "performance" but you keep inventing such an argument.



Again citing SAE




"works everywhere but confusing parking lots" is a limited ODD.

Which is L4.






I can though.

Because the SAE says it must work in ALL situations that a driver could handle when on-road.

Which includes that one.


Again it's not that it must be PERFECT at it.

But unable to work there AT ALL - as YOUR suggestion of "It just won't enter confusing parking lots" - means it has a LIMIITED ODD of "anywhere except confusing parking lots" and this by definition is L4, not L5.


Page 18 even has a flowchart about if it's Level X or not.

For L5 it asks if it can "Perform the complete DDT and DDT fallback WITHOUT ODD limitation"- if so it's L5.

"no confusing parking lots" is an ODD limitation.

Which makes it L4.




That's probably best.

 

[Singuy]

Rumors that Tesla is building a Cybertruck pilot line at Fremont so that they can hit the ground running with Cybertruck production when Texas GF opens:

Tesla's Cybertruck strategy is paving the way for pilot production that's closer to home than expected

Elon Musk may still have accuracy issues when estimating the rollout dates of products like the Full Self-Driving Beta, but there is no denying that the Tesla CEO is starting to learn the art of sandbagging, at least to some degree. This is something that Elon Musk appears to be doing with the...

www.teslarati.com

"While unorthodox, Tesla’s recently reported strategy for the Cybertruck’s rollout actually makes quite a lot of sense. Having a line in Fremont for prototype validation vehicles would all but ensure that the Cybertruck’s lines in Gigafactory Texas would not require any substantial changes or adjustments when they are activated for mass production. But this is not all. The Fremont Factory is also a stone’s throw away from Tesla’s Roadrunner site, where the company is currently developing and ramping the production of its custom dry-electrode, tabless 4680 cells—the batteries that would most likely be used on the Cybertruck."

What makes more sense is to build a tent at Texas and start their pilot run.

 

[Nocturnal]

VW accidentally leaks new name for its U.S. operations: Voltswagen

A now unpublished press release called the change a "public declaration of the company's future-forward investment in e-mobility."

www.cnbc.com

Is GM going to rebrand as General Electric now? Well, on one hand I want to laugh, but I suppose even this silly stuff does help the mission. I don't trust VW at all but they are pushing the hardest out of any legacy maker.

 

[ZeApelido]

Pretty good writeup of Tesla's autonomy advantages.

Softmax

Softmax is a newletter about the convergence of technology with finance and politics. Content is written by Dheepan Ramanan, a former political science major turned machine learning practitioner. Click to read Softmax, by Dheepan Ramanan, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

softmax.substack.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rumors that Tesla is building a Cybertruck pilot line at Fremont so that they can hit the ground running with Cybertruck production when Texas GF opens:

Tesla's Cybertruck strategy is paving the way for pilot production that's closer to home than expected

Elon Musk may still have accuracy issues when estimating the rollout dates of products like the Full Self-Driving Beta, but there is no denying that the Tesla CEO is starting to learn the art of sandbagging, at least to some degree. This is something that Elon Musk appears to be doing with the...

www.teslarati.com

"While unorthodox, Tesla’s recently reported strategy for the Cybertruck’s rollout actually makes quite a lot of sense. Having a line in Fremont for prototype validation vehicles would all but ensure that the Cybertruck’s lines in Gigafactory Texas would not require any substantial changes or adjustments when they are activated for mass production. But this is not all. The Fremont Factory is also a stone’s throw away from Tesla’s Roadrunner site, where the company is currently developing and ramping the production of its custom dry-electrode, tabless 4680 cells—the batteries that would most likely be used on the Cybertruck."

Again, we see an ill-conceived blog post which misrepresents the (very) short statement made in a tweet by Whole Mars Catalog:

"so they’re already building the Cybertruck & 4680 Y production line in Fremont and then they’re just gonna move it over to Austin @elonmusk"​

Building production tooling at Fremont IS NOT the same thing as building a pilot production line. The two are separate, but the (evidently) inexperienced author of the latest 'blog based on a tweet' has an agenda and (likely) a quota, too.

We already know Tesla builds most of their own tooling. This is not news, they have been for years. But in the lust for the news cycle, any little conflated snippet is worthy of a clickbait headline.

They're not helping, regardless of what Tesla's actual preproduction plans are. THIS is not THAT.

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hummmm..... 2% holding of Virgin Galactic but 3% holding of John Deere.

Lockheed? Boeing? Teledyne? Those are anti-disruptive. Think I’ll pass.

 

[woodisgood]

The threat to net metering and very high solar connection fees in California may be part of the thrashing. So goes California goes the country.

California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

I am hoping this can be a sticky thread, so many of us are from California and what happens in California may spread across the country. This fight will last most of the year so a sticky thread would be very nice. The California investor owned utilities are lobbying heavily for NEM 3.0. This...

teslamotorsclub.com

It's very sad that public utilities are a part of the problem. Which is why I am eagerly awaiting Tesla's solution, which undoubtedly will transform it into a utility. Just not sure what route that will take to scale, and how long.

 

[neverdone]

Do we have any info on whether car parts have been held up?

I doubt that Tesla has any parts going through the Suez Canal (at least not until Berlin starts production), but European manufacturers (OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers) probably get lots of components from China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Korean and Japanese OEMs manufacturing in Europe are probably even more dependent on the canal. Car carriers are probably also affected, but a few days late on those won't make a big difference to sales.

The bigger problem may be the fire, March 19, at Renesas Electronics located in Tokyo.

"The company accounts for 30 per cent of the global market for microcontroller units used in cars, and two-thirds of the chips produced at the facility are for the auto industry."

Fire at Giant Auto-Chip Plant Fuels Supply Concerns

Shares of Toyota, Nissan and Honda fell as the industry assessed the impact on global chip supplies resulting from Friday’s fire at a Japanese factory owned by a unit of Renesas.

www.wsj.com

Damage from fire at Renesas chip factory worse than first thought

TOKYO: Renesas Electronics Corp now believes damage from a fire at its chip-making plant was more extensive than first thought, the Nikkei daily newspaper reported on Monday.The company had initially said 11 machines were damaged, but the Nikkei reported that the number of inoperable machines...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 649018

So is this a level -1 then?

Spoiler: Oops.

OT and at the risk of looking like FUD myself, last one here.

It does look like a road straight ahead to me... oh, but it's an exit ramp with lines and reflectors. My FSD about 1 week ago.

So I welcome the slow and cautious release until people understand statistics, data, vision systems, reaction times compared, etc... Or better yet, as indicated by their Tesla Insurance rates (right?). There is no rush here. End of this year is just fine for public, but please include me ASAP.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Apparently Wall St and MM's are not worried about Tesla releasing P/D the morning of April 1st(which admittingly is a smart bet). Seems obvious to me they're anticipating some FOMO buying on Wed/Thurs so they're keeping the stock in check for max pain at 650 on Thursday. If Tesla does release P/D numbers on April 1st (again very low chance of this) and they're good, MM's gonna get blown up. Even then......kinda dangerous considering the Biden infrastructure plan is supposed to be release on Wed if I'm remembering correctly

That or Wall St is dead set on keeping TSLA in a long term downtrend (which they've successfully done since that 20% rally day).

 

[asburgers]

Pretty good writeup of Tesla's autonomy advantages.

Softmax

Softmax is a newletter about the convergence of technology with finance and politics. Content is written by Dheepan Ramanan, a former political science major turned machine learning practitioner. Click to read Softmax, by Dheepan Ramanan, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

softmax.substack.com

This is a must-read. Glad buddy gets called out once in a while. He's a bit arrogant at times.

 

[ggies07]

Hummmm..... 2% holding of Virgin Galactic but 3% holding of John Deere.

and Amazon is higher on the list that VG....

 

[OrthoSurg]

Is GM going to rebrand as General Electric now? Well, on one hand I want to laugh, but I suppose even this silly stuff does help the mission. I don't trust VW at all but they are pushing the hardest out of any legacy maker.

After dieselgate, are they going to manage to pull out a Wattsgate

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Apparently Wall St and MM's are not worried about Tesla releasing P/D the morning of April 1st(which admittingly is a smart bet). Seems obvious to me they're anticipating some FOMO buying on Wed/Thurs so they're keeping the stock in check for max pain at 650 on Thursday. If Tesla does release P/D numbers on April 1st (again very low chance of this) and they're good, MM's gonna get blown up. Even then......kinda dangerous considering the Biden infrastructure plan is supposed to be release on Wed if I'm remembering correctly

That or Wall St is dead set on keeping TSLA in a long term downtrend (which they've successfully done since that 20% rally day).

And herein lies my annoyance with myself. TSLA is clearly under-priced at $640......so what do I do? Buy weeklies under the assumption that surely this egregious error will be corrected in the marketplace post haste. How long could it possibly take, 2 weeks?

Well here we are 1.5 weeks later and there's a damn good chance you're right in that MM's have a far superior plan. They can focus on simply getting to Easter <$650 and then roll with the punches after P&D. I've shifted to buying June calls, but they're obviously quite a bit more expensive than weeklies. Maybe a contract or two for next Friday wouldn't be too foolish after all.

Hope you guys like handjobs, that's probably the next phase of my career.

Volatility both vertical and horizontal is how these guys crush souls. Being right means nothing if you're a couple weeks off while looking for leverage. I know, I know......just buy and hold. For the most part I am.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's very sad that public utilities are a part of the problem. Which is why I am eagerly awaiting Tesla's solution, which undoubtedly will transform it into a utility. Just not sure what route that will take to scale, and how long.

Very sad indeed. But at least the powers that be understand that now and the right folks are making the calls at DoE and soon FERC. I don't see Tesla becoming a utility, I see utilities ending as a highly profitable corporate enterprise.

Tesla will make ungodly amounts of money servicing this freshly neutered utility sector along with the literally millions of decentralized energy producers/users. I guess you could say Autobidder might be considered a utility.....but we'll probably throw that in for free.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 649018

All the grammar in the world goes to waste when someone doesn't have anything of interest to post. In other words, sometimes the whitespace between sentences contains as much meaning as all the sentences combined.