Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

No, I don't think your definition fits the sae document.

That's weird since my definition is literally from the SAE document

So yes, it fits the SAE document. It's FROM there.

L5 refers to full on-road automation.

What does on-road mean? SAE tells you.

It's what I already posted.

J3016_201806: Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles - SAE International

This SAE Recommended Practice describes motor vehicle driving automation systems that perform part or all of the dynamic driving task (DDT) on a sustained basis. It provides a taxonomy with detailed definitions for six levels of driving automation, ranging from no driving automation (level 0) to ful

www.sae.org

“On-road” refers to publicly accessible roadways (including parking areas and private campuses that permit public access) that collectively serve users of vehicles of all classes and driving automation levels (including no driving automation), as well as motorcyclists, pedal cyclists, and pedestrians.

(bold added)

So parking areas that permit public access, even the fairgrounds example given, are considered "on road" by SAE, and must be something L5 can handle to be L5.

 

[Big Time]

What is the difference between SuperCharger and Megacharger?

 

[MP3Mike]

What is the difference between SuperCharger and Megacharger?

Megachargers are for the Semi. Specs haven't been released yet. But likely to have a single plug that can do ~1MW. (vs 250kW on a Supercharger.)

 

[powertoold]

must be something L5 can handle to be L5.

This is where I think you're wrong. Again, show us in the sae document where it specifies the performance criteria for level 5.

Level 5 broadly means the following:
1) no restrictions (based on weather or location) on where you set your destination pin on Google maps, as long as it's a publicly accessible roadway
2) should be able to pull over in case of any problems with the system or inability to drive
3) Tesla can decide to disable the level 5 feature any time or for any reason
4) there's no *expectation* that the user take over. Although the user *can* intervene or disengage by choice.

Again, level 5 is a *feature set*, not some sort of human performance criteria. Please stop using the levels to dictate autonomy progress or performance. A very very bad level 2 is still level 2, as is a very very bad level 5.

 

[Knightshade]

This is where I think you're wrong. Again, show us in the sae document where it specifies the performance criteria for level 5.

Dude- I was directly quoting from the SAE document and included a link.



Level 5 broadly means the following:
1) no restrictions (based on weather or location) on where you set your destination pin on Google maps, as long as it's a publicly accessible roadway[/QUOTE]

Yes, and the public roadway INCLUDES PARKING LOTS IF OPEN TO THE PUBLIC.

Just like both me, and the SAE, told you.

So an inability to drive in such a parking lot as the public fairgrounds lot would exclude it from being level 5

Not sure why you keep insisting direct quotes from the SAE aren't consistent with what the SAE says.

2) should be able to pull over in case of any problems with the system or inability to drive

No, that's L4.

L5 should work in ALL circumstances.

Once again I refer you to the SAE themselves

https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/gallery/cm/articles/news/2018/12/j3016-levels-of-driving-automation-12-10.jpg

L4 specifies it can drive the vehicle under limited conditions and will not operate unless all conditions required are met.

L5 specifies the feature can drive the vehicle under all conditions.

In fact, it notes the difference between L4 and L5 specifically as L5 features being:

"Same as L4, but feature can drive everywhere in all conditions"


If there's limits to the system on-road (which includes parking lots) then it is not level 5 by SAEs own words

. Please stop using the levels to dictate autonomy progress or performance.

I'm not.

At all.

I'm literally quoting you SAE definitions to point out your claim they aren't what the SAE says is factually wrong.

This is a very weird argument.

 

[powertoold]

Once again I refer you to the SAE themselves

https://www.sae.org/binaries/conten.../j3016-levels-of-driving-automation-12-10.jpg
L4 specifies it can drive the vehicle under limited conditions and will not operate unless all conditions required are met.

L5 specifies the feature can drive the vehicle under all conditions.

Would you take this into the level 5 thread? Have you read the actual sae definitions, not the one-page graphic?

Here's the download link for the sae definitions:

SAE MOBILUS

saemobilus.sae.org

Click Download

The line that most directly conflicts with your idea of level 5 is:

By itself, J3016 imposes no requirements, nor confers or implies any judgment in terms of system performance. Therefore,
while it may be appropriate to state, for example, that a given ADS feature does not meet the definition of level 4 because
it occasionally relies on a remote fallback-ready user to perform the fallback (and is therefore a level 3 feature), it is not
appropriate to conclude that the feature in question is therefore ‘non-compliant’ or ‘unsafe.’

 

[Knightshade]

Would you take this into the level 5 thread? Have you read the actual sae definitions, not the one-page graphic?

Yes I have.

They also confirm, repeatedly, you are wrong.

if a driving automation system can perform the entire DDT and DDT fallback either within a prescribed ODD or
in all driver-manageable on-road driving situations (unlimited ODD), then any users present in the vehicle while the ADS
is engaged are passengers. This division of roles corresponds to levels 4 and 5.

That's again pointing out L4 vs L5.

L5 must be capable of driving in "all driver-manageable on-road driving situations"

And we already know on-road includes parking lots the public has access to.


If the system is NOT capable of driving in ALL such situations, it's not an L5 system.

LITERALLY by SAEs own words.


Then L5 defined further on page 24

“Unconditional/not ODD-specific” means that the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable onroad conditions. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical
restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle

So if you restrict it, as you suggested, to "not driving in confusing parking lots" then it's not L5. By definition. Because that's an ODD specific limit.



in case you've forgotten what you said originally-

We have a discussion on what is level 5. You bring up an interesting situation, but I'm not sure that level 5 needs to be able to navigate these fairgrounds, since it's questionable if this is considered a public roadway.

That's your original post.

The SAE definitions, as I've cited them to you, demonstrate that that IS considered on-road, and thus an L5 system must be able to operate there.

if it can't, it's not L5.


By definition.

Also, even if we do consider it a public roadway, the car can decide that it doesn't want to navigate through the parking lot once it gets there and finds that it's confusing. This would still be level 5.

Again, no, it would not- by definition of L5 per the SAE docs cited.

L5 must be capable of operating anywhere (on-road, as previously defined) that a driver could operate

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Watched a bunch of DoE solar videos this morning and am feeling MUCH better about the impact we'll see under Secretary Granholm. The focus on cost cutting at the hardware level always annoys me, since it's already cheap and getting cheaper, but they quickly pivoted to their real focus. Reliability, resilience and getting there through storage integration.

Not sure how they'll execute, but at least they're focused on the right thing. Federal level support for storage mandates would be the single best lever for increasing renewables adoption and they can do it with the stroke of a pen. Hopefully we'll see more details on actual infrastructure plans as early as later this week.

Jigar Shah is also now in the DoE leading the loan program that helped Tesla scale. Loving his perspective and expertise having such a large role. He only leads $40B in deployable ammo, but knowing Jigar he'll get a LOT out of that $40B. Maybe finance projects on the order of 20-30x that if he's allowed to go bananas in a market where cost savings accrue the minute contracts are signed.

 

[Big Time]

QQQ heading north, Glad TSLA is above 600. Hoping if QQQ breaks upwards to 320 Tesla can return to 700
I bet Toilet Boy uses Scott TP........

 

[Nocturnal]

Is Tesla going to raise the price on the Semi once they really start ramping? From the battery supply angle I struggle to see the benefit for Tesla to sell them vs cars.

500kwh semi - $180k (I assume 500kwh is for the upgrade vs $150k model)
Those batteries could instead supply about 6.5 Y/3s which would be about 330k of revenue. The cars also might include FSD purchases. Granted there will be some savings per kwh for a large vehicle, but not so much.

Possible solutions: 1. Price will go up. 2. Costs for the rest of the semi are far lower compared to cars which will make up some of the difference. 3. Battery supply will NOT be a problem in the near future. What else could I be missing?

 

[powertoold]

L5 must be capable of driving in "all driver-manageable on-road driving situations"

And we already know on-road includes parking lots the public has access to.

No, it's subtle, but you are skewing the definition.

Again, the sae definitions *explicitly* states that they don't define any performance criteria. They *explicitly* and repeatedly state that level 5 is a feature set. They define the feature set. They don't define the performance criteria.

You can't say "level 5 must be able to successfully navigate in a parking lot with people directing traffic" (because other humans can navigate it). You can set the level 5 feature's destination to be in this so called area, but there's no requirement that it'll be able to successfully navigate it.

This is my last post on level 5 here. Again, please take this to the level 5 thread.

 

[gene]

Green energy is getting absolutely thrashed...again.

EDIT: We are NOT moving in concert with that sector, however, which is a positive for today.

The threat to net metering and very high solar connection fees in California may be part of the thrashing. So goes California goes the country.

California Utilities Plan All Out War On Solar, Please Read And Help

I am hoping this can be a sticky thread, so many of us are from California and what happens in California may spread across the country. This fight will last most of the year so a sticky thread would be very nice. The California investor owned utilities are lobbying heavily for NEM 3.0. This...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[elasalle]

I do support the hypermill software setting.

But, it doesnt make sense to turn off headlights, as they use neglible amounts of energy.
In most parts of the world, use of headlights are mandatory 24/7.

You have tunnells, cloudy days, low sun.. lots of situations where headlight definitively have an impact on visibility. Not necessarily your own, but those around you(cars, pedestrians,cyclists etc.). A car with lights on grab a whole different kind of attention than one with dark headlights. (could be parked)

Everyone should call it what it is "Limp Mode". Pay for a Lambo and drive it like a Prius.
.. Marketed as a Lambo, Engineered like a Prius ... ("we ripped you off haha )

 

[Knightshade]

No, it's subtle, but you are skewing the definition.

I am literally quoting the SAE definition word for word- so no, I'm not "skewing" anything.

“Unconditional/not ODD-specific” means that the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable onroad conditions. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical
restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle

That's their exact words on what L5 must be able to do.

"doesn't enter confusing parking lots" is a geographical restriction on where it can operate. Meaning it does not meet the definition of L5 per SAEs own words.

Again, the sae definitions *explicitly* states that they don't define any performance criteria.

I'm not sure what you mean by "performance" or how you think it's relevant?

The definition of L5 requires the feature works in public parking lots. Period.

It might do so perfectly- or do so like a drunken idiot- or anywhere in between and still be L5, but "simply can't drive there at all" as you suggested is not an option- that would BY DEFINITION make it L4.

I've made no argument, of any kind, about "performance" but you keep inventing such an argument.

Again citing SAE

ODD is especially important to understanding why an ADS is not level 5 merely because it operates an ADS-dedicated
vehicle. Unlike a level 5 ADS, a level 4 ADS has a limited ODD

"works everywhere but confusing parking lots" is a limited ODD.

Which is L4.

You can't say "level 5 must be able to successfully navigate in a parking lot with people directing traffic" (because other humans can navigate it).

I can though.

Because the SAE says it must work in ALL situations that a driver could handle when on-road.

Which includes that one.

Again it's not that it must be PERFECT at it.

But unable to work there AT ALL - as YOUR suggestion of "It just won't enter confusing parking lots" - means it has a LIMIITED ODD of "anywhere except confusing parking lots" and this by definition is L4, not L5.

Page 18 even has a flowchart about if it's Level X or not.

For L5 it asks if it can "Perform the complete DDT and DDT fallback WITHOUT ODD limitation"- if so it's L5.

"no confusing parking lots" is an ODD limitation.

Which makes it L4.

This is my last post on level 5 here.

That's probably best.

 

[2daMoon]

No, it's subtle, but you are skewing the definition.

Again, the sae definitions *explicitly* states that they don't define any performance criteria. They *explicitly* and repeatedly state that level 5 is a feature set. They define the feature set. They don't define the performance criteria.

You can't say "level 5 must be able to successfully navigate in a parking lot with people directing traffic" (because other humans can navigate it). You can set the level 5 feature's destination to be in this so called area, but there's no requirement that it'll be able to successfully navigate it.

This is my last post on level 5 here. Again, please take this to the level 5 thread.

If you would just copy the post, then paste and make your reply in the Level 5 thread you wouldn't be waiting on the guy who for what ever reason won't move his responses there.

This is only Level 2 thread-keeping Judo and doesn't require full autonomy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

On that FSD video from AI Driver... Impressive visualization! (As if this has less to do with SP than blocked canals.) But not to rathole either... I've been meaning to share my caviat for a while, and is probably preaching to the choir here. Consider FSD technology with a grain of salt- as in strap in for a FUD roller coaster ride on this topic for an extended period of time, but super promising even short-term. This message is for those who believe that in a few weeks/months the stock will surge with Beta release to the broader market and many might falsely conclude "problem solved."

To be clear, I'm not on this "Beta" release, but I still see unallowed lane change and swerving. It's showing way too much priority on the lines vs road/situation (forest through the trees). My car followed the dotted lane line shown below, and cut off a car on my left rear. I took over but it was already returning to the correct lane, I think. It will also changes across intersections especially if curving as well. Time will tell.

My example is just one data point (on older tech) where Tesla is not great, while superior to humans nearly everywhere else. However, accidents that appear so easy to avoid will be a FUD feeding frenzy that could last years with so many in denial and fearing the unknown. It isn't so much about what it can do or when, or is this L5 or not. It's more about consumer and investor knowledge and trust. FUD is here to stay on this one for many years IMO but wouldn't miss one minute of it and it's 50% why we bought their products.

 

[lascavarian]

Arkx supposed content FWIW.... netflix is a bit odd in a space exploration fund...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376535859424587777

Hummmm..... 2% holding of Virgin Galactic but 3% holding of John Deere.

 

[Mo City]

Is Tesla going to raise the price on the Semi once they really start ramping? From the battery supply angle I struggle to see the benefit for Tesla to sell them vs cars.

500kwh semi - $180k (I assume 500kwh is for the upgrade vs $150k model)
Those batteries could instead supply about 6.5 Y/3s which would be about 330k of revenue. The cars also might include FSD purchases. Granted there will be some savings per kwh for a large vehicle, but not so much.

Possible solutions: 1. Price will go up. 2. Costs for the rest of the semi are far lower compared to cars which will make up some of the difference. 3. Battery supply will NOT be a problem in the near future. What else could I be missing?

Of course they will raise the price of the Semi. Zero doubt about it.

When the industry gets violent IBS soon after the first batch of Semis is released into the wild, orders will grow and Tesla will respond accordingly.

I expect the Semi to hit the industry like a surprise tornado.

Same thing is possible for the CT, but I don't have the same 100% certainty. (LOL, even though I have two on order).

 

[stealthyc]

... a zillion mostly empty lines

I am sure I mind these back and forth arguments much less than most, but for gods sake can you please put more than one sentence together without a line of whitespace between? The lines-of-whitespace to content ratio in your posts is > 50% and serves no purpose other than to I'm sure annoy/infuriate just about everyone, which doesn't help discourse. We are all adults and can read paragraphs. Instead of live-streaming your thoughts one detached sentence at a time, please take a moment and construct them into cogent paragraphs.

 

[Nocturnal]

Of course they will raise the price of the Semi. Zero doubt about it.

When the industry gets violent IBS soon after the first batch of Semis is released into the wild, orders will grow and Tesla will respond accordingly.

I expect the Semi to hit the industry like a surprise tornado.

Same thing is possible for the CT, but I don't have the same 100% certainty. (LOL, even though I have two on order).

Only 2? I thought you were a Tesla fan? I have no idea what will happen, but I have 1 tri motor on order for myself, and 2 each of single and dual motors for possible RT use.

I'm guessing it will need to be a pretty sizable jump in sale price. Also wondering what the license for platooning might look like. If you are saving the expense associated with even 1 driver that's huge. About 40% of shipping costs are due to driver wagers/benefits. Once that is ready it may be a 200-500k+ software package.