Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

Hummmm..... 2% holding of Virgin Galactic but 3% holding of John Deere.

How do you think they’re going to terraform Mars? Duh.

 

[woodisgood]

And herein lies my annoyance with myself. TSLA is clearly under-priced at $640......so what do I do? Buy weeklies under the assumption that surely this egregious error will be corrected in the marketplace post haste. How long could it possibly take, 2 weeks?

Well here we are 1.5 weeks later and there's a damn good chance you're right in that MM's have a far superior plan. They can focus on simply getting to Easter <$650 and then roll with the punches after P&D. I've shifted to buying June calls, but they're obviously quite a bit more expensive than weeklies. Maybe a contract or two for next Friday wouldn't be too foolish after all.

Hope you guys like handjobs, that's probably the next phase of my career.

Volatility both vertical and horizontal is how these guys crush souls. Being right means nothing if you're a couple weeks off while looking for leverage. I know, I know......just buy and hold. For the most part I am.

It does not feel like a good environment to play the short-term game (with respect to buying calls - covered calls and puts may work out wonderfully), despite what we know is coming for Tesla. A lot of uneasiness in the market and I do think we're in the middle of a "change in plans" for MMs and big fish that could continue to uncouple the stock's performance from Tesla's, with possibly wild and disastrous consequences for those of us leveraged. It was a little more predictable a few months ago - we'd have been back to 800 in no time at all.

Right now I'm only willing to purchase LEAPs, though I do have shorter-term calls for this summer that I bought before the "correction." I'm concerned those are probably going to be fried.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And herein lies my annoyance with myself. TSLA is clearly under-priced at $640......so what do I do? Buy weeklies under the assumption that surely this egregious error will be corrected in the marketplace post haste. How long could it possibly take, 2 weeks?

Well here we are 1.5 weeks later and there's a damn good chance you're right in that MM's have a far superior plan. They can focus on simply getting to Easter <$650 and then roll with the punches after P&D. I've shifted to buying June calls, but they're obviously quite a bit more expensive than weeklies. Maybe a contract or two for next Friday wouldn't be too foolish after all.

Hope you guys like handjobs, that's probably the next phase of my career.

Volatility both vertical and horizontal is how these guys crush souls. Being right means nothing if you're a couple weeks off while looking for leverage. I know, I know......just buy and hold. For the most part I am.

I really wouldn't fault you for your thought process over the past two weeks. If I was playing weekly call's, probably would have done the same strategy. While I thought there would be an effort to create a dip/sell off right before P/D numbers come out.....I thought for sure that dip would be from the mid 700's to maybe upper 600's in the day or two before the P/D numbers come out.......but MM's and Wall St have had absolutely no problem controlling the stock. Honestly, it's seemed way too easy for them to get the stock right back into the long term down trend since Jan after that 20% rally day.

Either investors really are that scared of a Q1 disaster and thus are unwilling to buy until the P/D report comes out or there's a lot of backroom talk between institutions and hedgies happening

 

[JRP3]

• Tesla (TSLA -1.9%) has secured an order for 10 electric semi-trucks and 2 Megachargers, according to Electrek.
• The deal includes about $2M in support from the U.S. government
• The Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee MSRC awarded California-based logistics company MHX Leasing funds to deploy the ten Tesla Semi class 8 trucks and two overhead electric cranes. MHX won the grant from MSRC's Zero & Near-Zero-Emission Trucking-to-Warehouse, Distribution, & Intermodal Facilities in Riverside & San Bernardino Counties grant program. That program is part of a new government incentive that aims to speed up the electric semi truck adaption by logistical companies.

From SA.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mordor Gentrification Update #2

Texas HB 4379 - Relating to the ownership or operation of a motor vehicle dealership by a manufacturer or distributor of motor vehicles.

Filed: March 12
Read for the first time: March 29
Referred to TransportIon: March 29

 

[ggies07]

**** Buffett. This is ridiculous. Solar/wind + battery storage is the way to go.

Buffett's Plan To Fix Texas Energy Grid Includes 10 New Peaker Plants Owned By Buffett - CleanTechnica

Here's the essence of the plan: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would spend more than $8 billion to construct 10 1-megawatt natural gas-powered peaker plants in Texas in exchange for a guaranteed rate of return.

cleantechnica.com

Elon chimed in on the article as well:

Mar 27
@elonmusk
This is crazy. Should use Tesla Megapacks for load-leveling the grid. More effective, more reliable and costs less.

 

[OrthoSurg]

what % of the time does the stock price ends up exactly at Max Pain?
has someone gathered some data on this. Just curious how much the MM control the stock price when it is trading sideways.

 

[Singuy]

Pretty good writeup of Tesla's autonomy advantages.

Softmax

Softmax is a newletter about the convergence of technology with finance and politics. Content is written by Dheepan Ramanan, a former political science major turned machine learning practitioner. Click to read Softmax, by Dheepan Ramanan, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

softmax.substack.com

This article doesn't address the fact that Waymo/Cruise also has cameras and also has a NN used for object recognition.

 

[SN_8]

The Full List Of Holdings For The ARK Space Exploration ETF Is Out (ARKX)

Tesla didn't make the cut, Virgin Galactic is #20, but the 2nd largest holding is another ARK ETF.

www.thestreet.com

This writer believes that "SpaceX falls under the Tesla umbrella". If only...

 

[lafrisbee]

What makes more sense is to build a tent at Texas and start their pilot run.

It is best to have a strong group of engineers with a quality workforce when establishing the line so if you put a tent at Austin you'd have to fill it with people from Fremont.

Build the line at Fremont and take it to Austin. Some of the Fremont employees will have to go to Austin to put it in place but for nowhere near as long.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm not sure if this is new information / rumors with regards to Cybertruck initial production but Tesmanian claiming initial production in Texas could start in June. My guess is, this must be way off, lol.

Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

In an effort to bring Cybertruck to market as soon as possible, Tesla is preparing the pilot production line and planning details for its production at the Fremont factory. Once all the equipment is installed in Giga Texas, trained and ready for work team will immediately begin production from...

www.tesmanian.com

Overall I'm totally confused by new vehicle rollouts. Cybertruck, Semi, and Model 2 rumors are all over the place.

 

[elasalle]

What makes more sense is to build a tent at Texas and start their pilot run.

Until EM and core group moves to Austin, all prototypes will be done in Fremont. It was the case even for the Solar Roof.

 

[Krugerrand]

What is the difference between SuperCharger and Megacharger?

An M, U, P, R, G and an A. Not necessarily in that order.

 

[lafrisbee]

After dieselgate, are they going to manage to pull out a Wattsgate

Wattagate

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm not sure if this is new information / rumors with regards to Cybertruck initial production but Tesmanian claiming initial production in Texas could start in June. My guess is, this must be way off, lol.

Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

In an effort to bring Cybertruck to market as soon as possible, Tesla is preparing the pilot production line and planning details for its production at the Fremont factory. Once all the equipment is installed in Giga Texas, trained and ready for work team will immediately begin production from...

www.tesmanian.com

Overall I'm totally confused by new vehicle rollouts. Cybertruck, Semi, and Model 2 rumors are all over the place.

What's gonna happen is we will see the Semi hauling truck loads of CT's and Model 2's real soon.....trust me....my source is impeccable

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tomorrow feels like an up day to me. Bought back my 4/1 covered calls.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm not sure if this is new information / rumors with regards to Cybertruck initial production but Tesmanian claiming initial production in Texas could start in June. My guess is, this must be way off, lol.

Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

In an effort to bring Cybertruck to market as soon as possible, Tesla is preparing the pilot production line and planning details for its production at the Fremont factory. Once all the equipment is installed in Giga Texas, trained and ready for work team will immediately begin production from...

www.tesmanian.com

Overall I'm totally confused by new vehicle rollouts. Cybertruck, Semi, and Model 2 rumors are all over the place.

It's how sand-bagging is answered by the hedgies. Ok, you wanna sandbag for upside surprise by hiding your true progress? We'll leak rumors that overly breed optimism. Your choice then becomes to either debunk the rumors (leading to disappointment) or leave them alone, allowing the optimism to build up, and leading to disappointment later. And worst case for us, your advanced progress merely matches the rumors we already put out there.

 

[Krugerrand]

And herein lies my annoyance with myself. TSLA is clearly under-priced at $640......so what do I do? Buy weeklies under the assumption that surely this egregious error will be corrected in the marketplace post haste. How long could it possibly take, 2 weeks?

Well here we are 1.5 weeks later and there's a damn good chance you're right in that MM's have a far superior plan. They can focus on simply getting to Easter <$650 and then roll with the punches after P&D. I've shifted to buying June calls, but they're obviously quite a bit more expensive than weeklies. Maybe a contract or two for next Friday wouldn't be too foolish after all.

Hope you guys like handjobs, that's probably the next phase of my career.

Volatility both vertical and horizontal is how these guys crush souls. Being right means nothing if you're a couple weeks off while looking for leverage. I know, I know......just buy and hold. For the most part I am.

Do we need to reserve a spot?

 

[willow_hiller]

what % of the time does the stock price ends up exactly at Max Pain?
has someone gathered some data on this. Just curious how much the MM control the stock price when it is trading sideways.

Don't have access to great historical data, but I did find some here: Swaggy Stocks

It's obviously correlated, but not always a great predictor of the exact value (dashed lines represent Fridays):

Here's a chart of just the differences:

On average, the SP has been about 11 points below max pain in this time period (Jan 29 to Mar 26). On Fridays the SP has been about 19 points below max pain. Beta of 97%, R-squared of 75%. Regression table for the nerds:

Call:
lm(formula = stock_price_closed ~ max_pain, data = dat)

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 14.15953 69.50234 0.204 0.84
max_pain 0.96556 0.09391 10.281 2.94e-12 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 43.1 on 36 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.746, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7389
F-statistic: 105.7 on 1 and 36 DF, p-value: 2.945e-12

 

[jw934]

what % of the time does the stock price ends up exactly at Max Pain?
has someone gathered some data on this. Just curious how much the MM control the stock price when it is trading sideways.

I look at the Max Pain frequently enough to be able to say that it is not a good predictor by itself. A better set of data might be: How often does stock price ends up exactly at Max Pain when at least one TMC members predicts it will do that? My observation is that the match rate is significantly higher, perhaps more than 80%. Match rate is even higher when somebody posts (here or in the "wheel" board) that they have lowered their covered calls to just above the Max Pain price, the few times I remember. [lowered their CC = buy back the higher priced OTM CC and sell a lower-priced OTM CC for the same expiry date of the current week]