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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tomorrow ARK Invest will conduct its quarterly webinar beginning at 16:15 EST. This is in addition to the monthly webinar already conducted on Tuesday.

TSLA is the top holding by ARK. CEO Cathie Wood normally leads the webinar before turning over to her staff. TSLA is almost always discussed either within the main presentations or during the Q&A session.

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The world needs tinkerers. I’m thinking of JB Straubel, but there are countless others whose names never become recognised.

As a tinkerer I think Rich with his Rebuilds are unhelpful and I strongly feel that he has basically nothing in common with Straubel - curiosity being a possible exception.

He is however useful in getting focus on Tesla's poor customer service.
 
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As a tinkerer I think Rich with his Rebuilds are unhelpful and I strongly feel that he has basically nothing in common with Straubel - curiosity being a possible exception.
You might want to avert your eyes from the component layout in JB's early DIY EV effort. Oh nooo's look at all the exposed high voltage :eek::eek::eek: Death lurking everywhere!!!111

223c.jpg


JB Straubel's 1984 Porsche 944
 
A little OT, but something that can potentially blow up in Tesla's face...

I have been following the German TFF forum on the progress of Model 3 homologization, deliveries and Supercharger CCS upgrades.

Homologization seems to be imminent, within days, which is good.

Model 3s are heading to pier 80 in the SF bay and German delivery specialists have started calling customers about delivery dates in late February. Even better.

However the spreadsheet that the forum has built to track CCS progress shows that only 14 of the 381 locations they track (excludes the UK and Ireland as they get their cars later so no need to hurry) has a CCS stall at this point.

This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.
 
李克强会见美国客人_总理_中国政府网
Official Chinese gov website reports Elon meeting with Li Ke Qiang.
最新_中国政府网
If you check the list of news related to Li, you will see there are not many of such meetings with CEO of a foreign company, this is bullish as hell.
Their request to Tesla could be opening a R&D center in Beijing which in turn will bring countless gov benefits.
Tesla’s China revenue could end up much higher than rest of the world combined (which they should anyway).
Actually another bullish point about this is the amount of Chinese hot money flowing into TSLA would be unpredictable.
 
Chinese car sales fall for first time in more than 20 years

Trade war with US is handbrake on growth in world’s second biggest economy

Sales of cars in China have dropped for the first time in almost 30 years, a sign of the importance of ending the country’s trade dispute with the US as the world economy begins to falter.

As the US and China appeared to be edging closer to ending the trade dispute between them on Wednesday, the figures illustrate how the bitter standoff, as well as sluggish local demand, have acted as a handbrake on growth in the world’s second biggest economy.

Passenger vehicle sales in mainland China dropped by 5.8% last year to 22.35m, according to the China Passenger Car Association, the first reverse in the world’s biggest car market since 1992


________________________________________________________________________________________

Someone posted Chinese Auto Sales were 29M in 2017 a couple of days ago.

Maybe those include low speed neighborhood vehicles and/or tricycles and the above quoted by the Guardian does not?

Anyways, Chinese auto market at 22.35M vehicles at ~21k ASP is not bigger nor much more important than US market at 17.4M vehicles with ASP ~$37k. Yes, the luxury car market is still bigger in China than the US but the middle segment of cars is very small.
Correlation is not causation, there might be other reasons for a drop in car sales. That's not to say there would be zero impact from trade war, but from the wording in the article it could be that also a lot of buyers switched from cars to SUVs/CUVs/etc which aren't necessarily classified as "passenger vehicles" or "cars". How many vehicles sold in China originate in the USA anyways? It seems most imported vehicles would be still benefiting from the lowered tariffs earlier in 2018?
 
A little OT, but something that can potentially blow up in Tesla's face...

I have been following the German TFF forum on the progress of Model 3 homologization, deliveries and Supercharger CCS upgrades.

Homologization seems to be imminent, within days, which is good.

Model 3s are heading to pier 80 in the SF bay and German delivery specialists have started calling customers about delivery dates in late February. Even better.

However the spreadsheet that the forum has built to track CCS progress shows that only 14 of the 381 locations they track (excludes the UK and Ireland as they get their cars later so no need to hurry) has a CCS stall at this point.

This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.
But on the other hand, CCS is supposed to be the European standard for charging EVs. Sauce for the goose (Renault, VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW, Opel -- just to name the locals) ...

Oh, edit to add: Has it been confirmed that those locals can use Tesla chargers yet?
 
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A little OT, but something that can potentially blow up in Tesla's face...

I have been following the German TFF forum on the progress of Model 3 homologization, deliveries and Supercharger CCS upgrades.

Homologization seems to be imminent, within days, which is good.

Model 3s are heading to pier 80 in the SF bay and German delivery specialists have started calling customers about delivery dates in late February. Even better.

However the spreadsheet that the forum has built to track CCS progress shows that only 14 of the 381 locations they track (excludes the UK and Ireland as they get their cars later so no need to hurry) has a CCS stall at this point.

This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.
I thought the cars had dual plugs. Tesla completely eliminated the Tesla plug?
 
Noticed very high volume option activities on Mar 15 today. What kind of strategy is this?View attachment 367548

Simultaneously buying calls and puts for the same strike? That's a straddle. The additional puts on the 300s mean that if it drops low enough, they think it's going to go really low.

I think this is a bet on a big change occurring due to the March convertibles. They think it's going one way or another, and want to cover both. But they think that the negatives could be particularly bad if it goes south, and want to cash in big if that happens.

Personally, IMHO, the March convertibles are a big nothingburger. But many people haven't come to accept that yet, so...

Could be the convertibles, could be Elon's previous tweets about the Ides of March:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Ben Sullins said:
Replying to @elonmusk
The couch must be working :) - While you're here how about a date on the Model Y unveiling?
Elon Musk said:
Replying to @BenSullins @Teslanomicsco
March 15
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk said:
Replying to @DMC_Ryan @Teslanomicsco
I just made that up, because the Ides of March sounded good
Elon Musk said:
Replying to @elonmusk @DMC_Ryan @Teslanomicsco
But consider it real. We could unveil Model Y anytime from late this year to mid next year, so March 15 is about right.
 
Correlation is not causation, there might be other reasons for a drop in car sales. That's not to say there would be zero impact from trade war, but from the wording in the article it could be that also a lot of buyers switched from cars to SUVs/CUVs/etc which aren't necessarily classified as "passenger vehicles" or "cars". How many vehicles sold in China originate in the USA anyways? It seems most imported vehicles would be still benefiting from the lowered tariffs earlier in 2018?

Chinese total motor vehicle sales did decline this year. They will IMHO, decline again this year too (probably in the 7-10% range) ... But Tesla should still be demand limited even if China's bubble pops and they have a bigger drop in MV sales. Japan's MV sales during the bubble years was about 8m/y then declined to a 5-6m average.

The Chinese economy is a giant debt bubble, IMHO, but still a large untapped market for Tesla. Even if sales were to drop to a 30% lower "new normal" like what happen in Japan circa 1990, we're still talking about the largest market in the world by numbers....
 
Any concern of China wanting to open a Tesla factory, so they can just walk all the tech over to a Chinese factory across the street?
No, again the real strength of Tesla is software, and that’s something you cannot easily copy even if you have the source code, just look it up how long Chinese has been trying to build their own PC OS.
And it’s even more difficult if the software only runs on your own custom chips.
 
Any concern of China wanting to open a Tesla factory, so they can just walk all the tech over to a Chinese factory across the street?

1) Tesla open sourced its patents five years ago.
2) Unlike other American automakers with factories in China, Tesla will be allowed to run its Chinese factory without a Chinese partner.
 
This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.
Bloomberg already posted an article today about how difficult it is to road trip in a Tesla in Europe
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
 
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