Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

OT

Ark Invest Q1 swag was good for $200k chaitable donations to COVID relief. Q2 goes to cancer research. (I got one of their polos. Very nice.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377990441610715141

 

[dl003]

We might see a final, albeit brief wave of FUDs:
. Only 2,000 S&X delivered. ASP and gross margin is going to be terrible!
. Only 2.5% growth QOQ, they can't possibly deliver more than 800k this year if they going at this rate!
Will load up on LEAPs heavily if that happens.

 

[Tslynk67]

Randomly came across this very insightful tweet:
View attachment 650286
So, time to switch to 100% LEAPS?
/s

Well, you sure as hell don't want bears poking around Uranus!

 

[AudubonB]

Maybe this time I can perform my bassoon solo, unless he calls for another G-D polka.

OR -
I could sing Che gelida manina, in honor of those who HODL...

 

[madodel]

Let's not go overboard... first he needs a half star. Congrats Gordon. You deserve it!
View attachment 650297

You couldn't color within the lines?

 

[MP3Mike]

Well he was wrong on the timing, it came a few hours earlier than announced

Again, they were never talking about the P&D numbers. Here is their release:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1378029414198415360

So we are talking about almost 100 Supercharger stalls at Harris Ranch.

 

[Oveeus]

Lol your buddy loves trolling you

If he's legit, we're gonna be Scrooge McDuck'ing it in here

So far, his/her number checks out.

I messaged him/her this morning after seeing the P/D report and thanking him/her for his/her coded message (of course, he/she isn't confirming nor denying what I got). The reply: "If you think this is good... hohoho... wait to see...". Which I believe referring to the 3yr estimate guidelines Tesla has already set internally.

But so far, the numbers are checking out and if the coded message is true, we are in for an 100%+ YoY 2021 performance.

 

[2daMoon]

Warren's take on the numbers.

TL;DW Estimating P/D of 900k - 1M for the year, close to doubling again next year.

 

[AimStellar]

My puppy playing with her favorite chew toy, @GLJ Research

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We might see a final, albeit brief wave of FUDs:
. Only 2,000 S&X delivered. ASP and gross margin is going to be terrible!
. Only 2.5% growth QOQ, they can't possibly deliver more than 800k this year if they going at this rate!
Will load up on LEAPs heavily if that happens.

The argument against moving to leverage these last few weeks has been shaky at best, this delivery report blows that to pieces IMO. No we have these massive headwinds turning immediately to tailwinds PLUS the MM's need to unwind the naked shorting required to push TSLA all the way to $650.

If we open down/flat Monday, I'm going all in on wide array of call options out to Jan 2022. I'll just pray the world doesn't implode between now and then. Slowly deleverage as we inevitably cross $750 and $800. Moan a bit on the back end as we cross $900 in the fall and I already sold everything.

 

[MP3Mike]

We do know a little bit extra: The former S/X lines have now been completely merged into a single line, and apparently the saved floor space in the factory as been reallocated for something else.

Can't remember if we've heard what the "something else" might be: Paging @MP3Mike

The rumor is that they are using that space to build the initial Cybertruck production line and get it worked out, so that it can then just be moved to, or replicated at, GigaTexas.

 

[Tslynk67]

Warren's take on the numbers.

tl;dw (me neither); $TSLA to $300k per share by mid April?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla would likely crack the top 20 in auto manufacturers if they can make and deliver 1 million cars. Incredible considering It took about 10 years to go from 0 manufactured cars to where we are now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1250209436989370370

Your reference graph is for 2019. Tesla already was ranked 21 in 2020. 2020 was a disasterous year for OEM while Tesla shone bright (note link with 2020 summary below).
I see Tesla going to rank 17 by end of 2021, rank 14 for end of 2022 and getting in the top ten by 2023.

Automakers announce 2020 full-year sales results

The global health crisis had a significant impact on 2020 auto sales, but the industry managed a solid rebound in the second half of the year.

www.autoblog.com

2020 Results at a glance, with details to follow:

• GM's sales were down 11.9% for the year.
• Toyota sales were off 11.4%.
• Ford fell 15.6%.
• Fiat Chrysler was off 17.4%.
• Struggling Nissan reported sales down 33.2% for the year.
• Honda fell 16.3%.
• Hyundai sales dropped 10%.
• Volkswagen Group was down 12.8%.
• Subaru sales were off 12.6%.
• Tesla (up 20.3%), Volvo (up 1.8%) and Mazda (up 0.2%) bucked trends

Happy Easter. New Life. New Beginnings.

 

[2daMoon]

tl;dw (me neither); $TSLA to $300k per share by mid April?

Sounds legit.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just looked at my Fidelity IRA and there's $4k in available cash I didn't deploy at close Thursday. 4/9 $700c's were $8.

Does anyone have a self-flagellation strap I can borrow?

 

[AimStellar]

 

[woodisgood]

View attachment 650314

I don’t want to read too much into it, but this could perhaps signal some turbulence for self-driving competitors possibly due to their chosen technologies and business viability relative to self-driving laggard Tesla?

 

[Singuy]

We might see a final, albeit brief wave of FUDs:
. Only 2,000 S&X delivered. ASP and gross margin is going to be terrible!
. Only 2.5% growth QOQ, they can't possibly deliver more than 800k this year if they going at this rate!
Will load up on LEAPs heavily if that happens.

Just like Q1 of 2020, these numbers are very impressive and institution investors are not a bunch of Gordos with their head in the sand. They recognize headwinds and positive execution. The amount of fear for this q was similar to Q1 of 2020 which I speculated it'll be a very good thing if Tesla managed to surprise..and boy did they surprise.

I think more surprises coming during earnings. Those S/X sales are 95% P versions, which carries a much higher margin than the LR+. Energy sales may explode and turn a positive margin, and we might have better than expected margins from 3Y as well.

 

[Mo City]

The argument against moving to leverage these last few weeks has been shaky at best, this delivery report blows that to pieces IMO. No we have these massive headwinds turning immediately to tailwinds PLUS the MM's need to unwind the naked shorting required to push TSLA all the way to $650.

If we open down/flat Monday, I'm going all in on wide array of call options out to Jan 2022. I'll just pray the world doesn't implode between now and then. Slowly deleverage as we inevitably cross $750 and $800. Moan a bit on the back end as we cross $900 in the fall and I already sold everything.

Jan 2022 is still too risky for me. Anything sooner than Sep 2022 is a gamble IMO. But we all have our different tolerances for risk.

Of course, we both could be wrong and TSLA ends up soaring like a Falcon 9 by summertime.

 

[Buckminster]

You ain't seen nothin yet.

Worth watching the first half for those of you wanting to convince yourselves on the super bull robotaxi future.
More chit chat here.