Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

How long till the these shorties run out of cash and we can return to 700+?

24 minutes.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So, they're demand limited and over-supplied, with record prod and deliveries? That is some next-level Vizinni sugar right up in there!

Cheers!

We have all learned that when Gordo speaks....$TSLA rockets....and the more ridiculous his comments are, the higher the SP goes.

 

[canoemore]

This is bonkers.

 

[tschmidty]

First off GoJo's audio was even worse than I thought. Simply ridiculous but I guess to be expected by a guy ranked in the bottom 1% of analysts

I only listened for about 15 seconds, but I did like his comment about how Tesla "cherry-picked" by starting with the 3 largest auto markets in the US, Europe and China. Because they clearly should have started with sales in...somewhere else?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sheesh, 15 million shares traded in the first hour and no issues capping it even while the Nasdaq has nearly doubled it's percentage gain for the day. I shouldn't be surprised and I'm not.......but damn this Wall St BS is so blatant

 

[viridi]

From MMD to a game of whack-a-mole. Still amazing to watch a $650 billion plus market cap company get so manipulated.

 

[Todd Burch]

Really trying to look at this morning's trading from the "this stock is not manipulated" viewpoint but coming up empty, lol.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

First off GoJo's audio was even worse than I thought. Simply ridiculous but I guess to be expected by a guy ranked in the bottom 1% of analysts

I only listened for about 15 seconds, but I did like his comment about how Tesla "cherry-picked" by starting with the 3 largest auto markets in the US, Europe and China. Because they clearly should have started with sales in...somewhere else?

Like Africa?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just looked at my trade history but still had the filter on to show selling only. I literally thought I had sold all my shares! I panicked, checked the main screen and all was fine. But I had the feeling of not having any TSLA for 10 sec... I almost puked! And yes, THAT was emotional. And I also really love the stock, also emotional there. Very.

 

[joh01652]

It's funny, Ford is up >3% at the moment. They've had to idle some of their profitable F150 plants due to chip shortages, stop selling the $800 home charger for the Mach-E because of technical issues with the unit, and Mach-E is an EV owner's worst nightmare when it comes to charging. But still, it's up >3% while TSLA is being held down. Hilarious.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sheesh, 15 million shares traded in the first hour and no issues capping it even while the Nasdaq has nearly doubled it's percentage gain for the day. I shouldn't be surprised and I'm not.......but damn this Wall St BS is so blatant

Naked shorting must be unwound at some point! Just loading the spring even further.

I really feel like we're in the next phase of liftoff. The shorting required to push down so far this spring, and cap mornings like this, will all need to be unwound.

If you were going to sell in this region you've now had shots at $580-900, the remaining shareholders are probably quite diamond handed at this point. Next big selling trigger is $1k+.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Two months ago I signed a $900 contract with a Supplier to provide some yard materials for my backyard landscaping project.
Two weeks ago, prior to the materials being delivered, much to my surprise the Supplier advised that the material cost was now reduced to $540. "No way", I said. "We had a contract for $900, no way I will pay less than that." So I terminated the contract.
So for the last two weeks I've been looking all over for this meterial and found out it is unique to this Supplier, I can't find anything like it anywhere else at any cost. So I called the Supplier back this morning when they opened and they said the material is still in stock, however the price has gone up to $707. There is no way I'm going to get shafted again. I told them. "I'm not paying until the cost is at least as high as our original $900 contract, but let me know if it is about to go over $1000, because I'm definitely not paying more than four digits for this material." Sheesh!

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is bonkers.

Lol. Ba-chaw!

(this too shall pass)

Cheers!

 

[UncaNed]

Tim Cook
“You know, I’ve never spoken to Elon, although I have great admiration and respect for the company he’s built. I think Tesla has done an unbelievable job of not only establishing the lead, but keeping the lead for such a long period of time in the EV space. So I have great appreciation for them,” Cook told Swisher.

It’s pretty sad that Tim couldn’t be bothered to pick up the phone when Elon reached out to him about joining forces. As an AAPL investor I am very disappointed and this makes me question my investment. And even after that it seems that at some point they should have had some kind of dicussion, their offices are not that far from each other and there must be many possible deals that can be made. For example to solar for their campus, storage for their solar(did happen), boring company improving SV commute, neural link and iOS, Starlink and Apple devices, Apple Play in Tesla vehicles etc. Probably they dismissed Tesla early and then refused to admit their mistake...

And you're still an Apple investor because...???

 

[dl003]

By the look of how much calls have gone up across exp and strikes, we're not gonna stop here. Not by a long shot.

 

[Unpilot]

Some serious 700 whack a mole going on.

 

[woodisgood]

Two months ago I signed a $900 contract with a Supplier to provide some yard materials for my backyard landscaping project.
Two weeks ago, prior to the materials being delivered, much to my surprise the Supplier advised that the material cost was now reduced to $540. "No way", I said. "We had a contract for $900, no way I will pay less than that." So I terminated the contract.
So for the last two weeks I've been looking all over for this meterial and found out it is unique to this Supplier, I can't find anything like it anywhere else at any cost. So I called the Supplier back this morning when they opened and they said the material is still in stock, however the price has gone up to $707. There is no way I'm going to get shafted again. I told them. "I'm not paying until the cost is at least as high as our original $900 contract, but let me know if it is about to go over $1000, because I'm definitely not paying more than four digits for this material." Sheesh!

Weird story with a weird supplier and weird customer. Seems pretty OT if you ask me.

 

[kbM3]

Gordo's new schtick is that the Gigas have more capacity than Tesla is utilizing, so yes they sell all they produce, but they are not producing as many as they could. So be prepared for that.

Sadly even bulls like Gary Black on Twitter believe that. it’s the reason he thinks the process is:

step 1: Estimate the total size of the EV market in 2025
step 2: Estimate Tesla’s percentage.
step 3: multiply the two to get Tesla’s sales in 2025

I.e. Tesla’s 2025 sales will be based on their demand at the time and not on their ability to scale production between now and then.

 

[Unpilot]

I just looked at my trade history but still had the filter on to show selling only. I literally thought I had sold all my shares! I panicked, checked the main screen and all was fine. But I had the feeling of not having any TSLA for 10 sec... I almost puked! And yes, THAT was emotional. And I also really love the stock, also emotional there. Very.

Fidelity mobile app showed my portfolio as 0 the other day due to a glitch.
Yes I was freaking out!

 

[jbcarioca]

Do we have any indication of margins on the batteries alone?

The only thing we know for certain is that almost all the stationary storage batteries are composed of purchased cells. All the suggestions I have seen suggest that the price per cell is quite variable. Thus far there has been zero disclosure of this. The Tesla value add is: packaging (lots of money can be saved by shipping as container-sized heavy units), liquid cooling/heating allowing operation -30 C to +50 C, each pod with isolated DC=DC converter so plug-swappable, "hundreds of sensors" per pack and all the near-instantaneous responses provided by the app and Autobidder.

Therefore what we know is that the 'secret sauce' is similar to that of the cars (the BMS was even derived from the legacy ModelS system) in that the system software and firmware are the primary source fo competitive advantage. Even if the cells are mediocre, the easy swapability mitigates the issue.

Until and unless Tesla provides the information we can only guess. I suspect that the Gross Margins on PowerPack are comparable to those on cars. However, the development, sales and installation support are certainly much higher than for cars. Scale economies are just beginning as the installed base is fomenting word-of-mouth among industrial and utility users.

The situation is quite different for MegaPack, primarily because they are offered with long warranties that include specific performance warranties and maintenance, the terms of which are customized in accordance with each installation. While Autobidder and software systems are likely to be little changed from PowerPack the sheer scale makes MegaPack a completely different issue, in large part because they are designed to replace peaker plants and eliminate variability of renewable power production.

At 4Q 2020 Tesla reported a loss of 4.7% for TE, with >3 GWh delivered during the year. Given the rapid ramp that seems to be continuing I fully expect TE to be profitable in 2021 for the full year. Because MegaPack is growing enormously it is likely that quarterly sales will appear to be highly variable. That is, unless Tesla adopts 'percentage-of-completion' accounting for those large projects, something that is common in construction. Since most of these projects may be executed in less than a full calendar year that approach might be more trouble than is worth.

Percentage of completion method — AccountingTools

The percentage of completion method calculates the recognition of revenue and expenses related to projects based on the proportion of work completed.

www.accountingtools.com

The accounting for the warranty period and maintenance support probably can be handled appropriately with traditional warranty reserve techniques.

Autobidder and Tesla utility licenses in Europe and the UK offer additional sources for Margin improvement. Thus far we have no material disclosures about the actual effect of those developments.

I know that does not answer the question. However, on balance I am quite confident that TE will be profitable for the full year 2021 and may well be profitable in each quarter. There are numerous not-yet-disclosed elements, all of which seem likely to be positive contributors.