Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

That is a good word ‘tool’. A tool has no intelligence if its own and exists as part of somebody else’s toolbox.

It has some colloquial meaning too...

 

[Fact Checking]

But while the SEC's request is a bit unusual in the context of expedited contempt proceedings I think, I'd not be surprised to see the judge grant the request, unless Elon's lawyers are opposing it. She might also schedule a hearing.

This is close to what happened, she just filed an order:

Order on Motion for Leave to File Document – #29 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com

"ALISON J. NATHAN, District Judge:

The Government’s motion for leave to file a reply memorandum is granted. The Government shall file its reply memorandum no later than March 19, 2019.

No later than March 26, 2019, each party shall indicate in writing whether it is seeking an evidentiary hearing on this matter.

So ORDERED.'​

She's a careful judge (thank goodness, we want this done right):

• She almost immediately granted the SEC's request (she might have conferred with the parties whether Elon's lawyers want to oppose and they indicated that they didn't - this won't show up in the Pacer records),
• She also gave both parties an opportunity to argue for an evidentiary hearing. Such a hearing would hash out what evidence to use in the later contempt hearing: the expert opinion Elon's team filed, any cross-examination of Elon in person, of other people, etc. Elon offered to testify in person in his affidavit.

I don't think the SEC can do anything at this point to save their case, so Elon's team should give them as much rope as they want.

The SEC could in principle withdraw their contempt motion, which would be humiliating but also pointless: Elon's team would file their own motion immediately I think, in a less risky procedural environment ...

 

[Krugerrand]

That's only true in a legacy business such as GM or Ford. Tesla is trying to get as many BEVs to as many people as possible in as short a time period as possible. Once there are enough BEVs out there so that there is no turning back, then you'll see more predictability (and Elon will likely turn the reins over to the bean-counters).

I don’t think so. He’s still aiming to build an entire sustainable energy ecosystem. That doesn’t just depend on the cars. I also think Family Empire.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think the reservations matter much for anything but there is something to be said for seeing the unveil and then being able to go to the website and ordering yours. I think people just psychologically like to be able to do that. Tesla might as well use it, even if they don't publish the numbers.

I also think it’s good for Tesla to be able to gage demand a bit more accurately. The reservations over the first two weeks will tell them where they stand.

And: there is no rule that says Tesla has to tell the scum sucking WS maggots...*deep breath*...Tesla doesn’t have to publicly announce the reservation total. I actually kind of hope they don’t because that’ll drive everyone beserk - unless it’s just such a grossly, obscenely high number, then yeah, shout it from the roof tops!

 

[KarenRei]

They didn't announce reservations for the past two products (Roadster, Semi)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

They didn't announce reservations for the past two products (Roadster, Semi)

While true, the Y is far more similar to the 3 than to the Roadster or Semi. This is their first mass consumer product reveal since the 3.

 

[SebastianR]

And: there is no rule that says Tesla has to tell the scum sucking WS maggots...*deep breath*...Tesla doesn’t have to publicly announce the reservation total. I actually kind of hope they don’t because that’ll drive everyone beserk - unless it’s just such a grossly, obscenely high number, then yeah, shout it from the roof tops!

Let's be specific here: Elon announced that detailed specs & pricing will be provided.

Elon Musk on Twitter

So if I were Tesla, I would make this different from the Model 3 launch: I would take at least 2.5k USD and announce that of course you can't compare that to the Model 3. Then I would indicate timeframes for which options / which countries come first (5k or even 10k for signature deliveries)

That way you avoid the 1:1 comparison, get an even better idea how impatient people will be waiting for what.

I would give the option to pre-order to destroy ICE demand: remember the BMW 3 Series started to tank after Model 3 pre-orders were open.

 

[Nocturnal]

Private influence on the SEC would be direct corruption. I’m hesitant to believe the SEC would risk that. More likely the pressure to slow the assault on fossil fuels comes from above, the most powerful public institutions. Each member of the SEC would be carefully implementing their CYA instinct (cover your ass).

This is what happens when the elected government is sponsored by fossil fuel industries. The watering down of pollution laws is another symptom.

Facebook seems to get a free pass. Having read “Snowden”, this is likely because the relationship between Facebook and govt data monitoring programs is strong. Mutual back scratching.

You would think the SpaceEx relationship would do the same for Elon. Maybe it is, just not with the SEC.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And this is where the OT Brexit discussion ends. Now don’t act surprised

Mod

 

[AlexS]

Not sure if this was relayed here yet (didn't see it in the latest 3 pages ), but I found it to be an interesting read:

Why is The SEC Picking on Elon Musk Instead of Mark Zuckerberg?

send it to Judge

 

[EVNow]

That way you avoid the 1:1 comparison, get an even better idea how impatient people will be waiting for what.

Not that that will stop the press from spinning any number as a negative.

But that shouldn't stop Tesla from doing what they can do. Otherwise they will be paralyzed.

 

[Tslynk67]

please do not harass attorneys at the SEC. There is zero benefit to this action.

Not true, makes us feel better.

 

[Tslynk67]

"New factual assertions"? You mean everything everyone already knew except for the SEC?

Bad form to reply to one's own post, I know, but the SEC are actually admitting that there was information in Musk's filing that they weren't aware of. Seriously, what the f*** are they playing at? This is, for want of a better word, ludicrous!

 

[1101011]

A recent dog walk in the neighborhood (all two blocks) allowed me to note five Toyota RAV4s of very recent vintage.

I'll be most interested in comparing the characteristics of these guys to the Model Y: dimensions, pricing, amenities.

 

[brian45011]

Paying e.g. 1k $ for a reservation is an indicator of genuine interest so this helps Tesla to determine how big an investment in production capability they should make.

For 1st day reservation holders to wait three years (much less in the USA, but longer elsewhere) is not optimal so I wonder when Model Y deliveries will start, given the indications that reservations will indeed be taken.

But in the case of Model 3 it must have been very useful for Tesla to be able to safely bet that 'as much production capacity as possible' was a justified investment.

And then the reservation process just generates a lot of media attention, i.e. free advertising...

The looming phase-out of the US tax credit was a motivating factor in 2016 for some to reserve as early as possible. In 2019, the tax credit effect will be nil, and there is probably some latent disillusionment that ultimately the timeliness of the reservation was largely disassociated with when a car in the configuration a depositor wanted would be delivered.

It's unfortunate that Tesla's PR department hasn't been trying to manage media expectations that the reservation count after the MY reveal are likely to be significantly lower than in 2016.

 

[Nocturnal]

A recent dog walk in the neighborhood (all two blocks) allowed me to note five Toyota RAV4s of very recent vintage.

I'll be most interested in comparing the characteristics of these guys to the Model Y: dimensions, pricing, amenities.

I had no idea how popular they were until I read some Model Y articles. 500k a year I think.

 

[KarenRei]

1) I'm 95% sure they'll take reservations
2) I'm 90% sure that Tesla will not make the numbers public, in any context, unless they're overwhelming.
3) I'm 85% sure they won't be overwhelming, for the reasons brian spelled out, having relevance whatsover to the actual market size for the vehicle.

That said, they'll still be "significant", and a useful measure to Tesla. And also a significant "get your vehicle sooner" card for many people in the US, particularly California.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon's team will have a night to think this over, but they might also have anticipated this move and might have a canned response ready already (not unusual with well funded legal teams):

• Their response might be "do nothing, let the judge do what she thinks is appropriate",
• or they might have an opposition filing ready,
• or they might support the SEC's request, if Elon is allowed to file a rebuttal brief,
• or they might do something else,
• or the judge might grant (or deny) the SEC's request before Elon's lawyers have time to act.

Basically if Elon's lawyers want to play really hardball, they could:

• Point to the harm the delay and uncertainty does to Tesla shareholders, and insist on a hearing.
• Argue that the fact that the SEC needs another attempt is prima facie evidence that the settlement wasn't "unambiguously, clearly" violated, right? If the SEC's legal team needs two attempts to explain a "violation" of a settlement that requires accelerated contempt proceedings then it's not such an obvious "violation" the SEC pretends it is after all, right?

I'd expect the judge to be cautious. I'd expect Elon's lawyers to be cautious as well, until they have a good impression of what the judge is thinking about all this. Then I expect them to go for the jugular...

Is a mod gonna put a sticky on that so it’s easy for Elon’s TMC readers to find it?

 

[Krugerrand]

please do not harass attorneys at the SEC. There is zero benefit to this action.

There’s always a benefit. Like if it makes just one SEC secretary quit (thus going on to a job he/she truly deserves to have) after having to listen to 420 Tesla investor complaints, then I say; ‘Job well done!’

 

[lklundin]

There has been some posts regarding European Model 3 deliveries.
A Danish news media has collected numbers from this year, up to March 11, for imported (i.e. all), new EVs:
180 Tesla Model 3 (actual start on February 14)
174 Hyundai Kona
61 Nissan Leaf
57 Renault Zoe
30 BMW i3
30 Huyndai Ioniq
26 Jaguar I-Pace
14 VW Up!
10 Nissan e-NV200
8 Tesla Model S
4 Audi e-tron
4 Kia Niro
4 Tesla Model X
4 VW Golf
5 Others
======
611 Total

So in basically three and a half weeks the Model 3 outsold what everybody else had managed since new year...

Elbilsalget eksploderer, og der er to modeller, der trækker fra

PS. Corrected 3 to 3 1/2 weeks...
PPS. Also per the cited source, the sales during these first months of the year represent a close to six fold increase YOY, with the same period last year seeing 103 EV registrations. Cited sources speculate that this is due to a combination of a larger selection of more affordable EVs and improved incentives.