Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Situation would be a lot different if we’d all been using FSD features for a while before the price cut(in which case, we would have paid more to have it earlier).

According to the new EAP/FSD, some stuff you have had is now part of FSD.

Anyway, some of us were clever and didn't buy FSD earlier

 

[jerry33]

Colder climates are not going to be good for an electric semi either. Medium haul with larger carriers is where the first ones will go.

My guess is that the much larger mass of batteries will fare better in cold. How much better is the question.

 

[CaliBear1]

I think discussions on the look of the Y are fair game here (esp. after hours) since the pencils design created by Franz and Elon will determine its level of acceptance in the wider and lucrative CUV market segment.

I love the teaser image of the front. And while we don't yet have any leaked intel (which is itself remarkable) on the rear I really hope it more resembles a Porsche Macan than a smaller X. I was never in love with the egg-shaped rear, even though I'm sure that shape is optimal for drag coefficient.

Thoughts?

 

[dc_h]

Ya I agree with you. Most of the replies I see are people talking about the advertisement problem as a cost efficiency problem. "No need to pay money to marketing firms when demand is not a problem." "All media are evil" etc etc. But it is not a demand or cost problem. It was a strategic narrative problem. And I did not mean pay the outfits that have attacked TSLA before. It is a move to dangle a carrot in all of the media so that they can at least stop the negative narrative in hopes of gaining marketing $$$

We agree pretty much that TSLA's stock price is depressed due to the onslaught of media. When every single one of your actions is scrutinized and blasted out to every lawyer and newspaper in town. You get SEC breathing down on your neck.

This is a strategic move to affect stock price. Has nothing to do with the need to advertise. 10 mil is peanuts to waste on strategic moves like these.

Exfukingsactly! Brandvertising is needed, not advertising. Twitter is jazz advertising, always changing and evolving. Brandvertising is relatively dull, but needed to counter the tslaq narative.

A steady voice repeating tesla’s Mission and telling the story of how they are and already have changed the automotive market and the energy market. Consumers already share their experiences and already advertise Tesla’s amazing performance. Advertising Tesla cars and specific products would not likely be as powerful ass the many YouTube and other online testimonials.

 

[SO16]

And why does Tesla want to spend 10 million in an attempt to affect the stock price, which might not even work?

Only to have it spun by the media/shorts that this is proof of falling demand.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Fred's position/comments should be outed and posted all over the internet. He's using his influence to force other people to pay more simply because he's butt hurt about paying slightly more than others. Dear lord he reeks of entitlement.

PS. If it's true...….I love the fact that Fred didn't get invited to the Model Y event. His insane level of entitlement probably meant he thought he was going to be flown out on Elon's private jet and stay in the W for free. Fred's whining because he knows no more future Tesla events for him

Didn’t he earn a free Tesla Roadster through the referral program? I always felt it was unfair of Tesla to allow YouTubers and other social media celebrities with a large following to participate in this.

 

[SpudLime]

Didn’t he earn a free Tesla Roadster through the referral program? I always felt it was unfair of Tesla to allow YouTubers and other social media celebrities with a large following to participate in this.

2 of them if I remember correctly.

 

[Carl Raymond]

And why does Tesla want to spend 10 million in an attempt to affect the stock price, which might not even work?

This.

Needless to say this forum is concerned about near term movements in the share price; sadly, this concern can be stronger than concern over the rate at which Tesla grows.

Elon no longer concerns himself with the stock price. His focus is on growth, which has been successfully decoupled from capital raises. He figures that by focusing on growth, the share price sorts itself out eventually, and he'd be right.

Some suggest that more funding can provide faster growth. Elon has refuted this. Again he's right - growth is limited by other factors, such as the rate at which knowledge can be passed to new staff - poor customer service is one symptom of growing too fast - the person on the other end of the communication is simply green, still learning the ropes. Tesla is growing at a phenomenal rate. Patience.

Here's the thing. To move the share price, one has to convince more than half the market that the stock is undervalued, it's like winning an election, you need to sway the slow adopters, people set in their ways. To sell cars, you only need to convince the select group of people who will go to the web site and place an order. They are already keen. The latter does not require mass market advertising - viral advertising, youtube, family and friend networks, twitter, forums like this, reveal nights such as Thursday, they all work too. And like viruses, there's a critical mass where they hit epidemic proportions. At the rate Model 3 is selling, that point is near.

If you read a 'pro advertising' comment, please consider if the motivation is growth, or near term share price. The former will take care of the latter soon enough.

 

[VValleyEV]

The funny thing is this has 5 disagrees. I still know many ppl who have no clue about Tesla's. Word of mouth is not enough. I run my own business and the returns on advertising $$ spent are huge. Tesla should consider it.

I think it would be nice to have some ads, but what you could get for $10M?

GM spent something over $3 BILLION in advertizing last year.
Ford etc somewhat less but still in the billions
Smallest one I found was Subaru at $431 Million
A single ad on popular TV shows starts at $200k and rockets up in to the millions, for. a. single. ad.

Maybe there is a creative way to get something useful for $10M or under annually, I dunno, but sure sounds like a non-starter to consider hundreds of millions. And none of this makes sense if demand is really way ahead of supply in the foreseeable future.

Some of this info comes from a site with a paywall, but here is a page from BI that includes some auto ad numbers:
These are the 10 companies that spend the most on advertising

Here is the paywall site:
Topic: Automotive Advertising

 

[ReflexFunds]

Looks like Fred's also caught a bit of FUD with his "nervous" reporting of Tesla cutting 150 people from its global recruiting team. He said initially that this was half the team, but now updated to 1/3rd, suggesting 300 recruitment employees remaining.

Tesla added 11.5k net employees in 2018. Including 4k cut in June-18 and likely 1-5k other churn through the year, this was likely 17-20k gross employees hired in 2018.

In 2019 Tesla needs to add staff in service and communications, but some of these can likely be transferred from sales roles. GF3 recruitment will likely need its own China based team. Given Y hiring will likely not need to ramp up until late in the year (or early 2020), I don't see how Tesla hiring requirements are going to be anywhere near so high in 2019. So reduction in recruitment staff seems an obvious place to turn given the current focus on SG&A efficiencies.

 

[VValleyEV]

Prediction: some celebs (I’m looking at you, Arnold) and other wealthy types are gonna buy Semis and bop around town in them like they’re emission-free Hummers.

I wonder what the 0-60 times are for the Semi detached from the trailer? Since it is quoted at 20sec for 0-60 hauling 80k pounds, I suspect it will be quite fast on its own, which would make it an interesting celeb status vehicle if you have a place to park it.

Note there is one seat in the center, with maybe a little folding jump seat behind,

 

[Johnny Ma]

Tesla added 11.5k net employees in 2018. Including 4k cut in June-18 and likely 1-5k other churn through the year, this was likely 17-20k gross employees hired in 2018.

I'm not giving Fred any of my clicks. Did he put this in context?

From all the articles out there, you'd think Tesla was a fast *shrinking* company. Those with half a brain know this is the opposite of the truth. Fred does not fall into this at least half of a brain category, so I have to ask.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Difference between Ohio and California is, when I walk my dog the three block radius walk in my "middle class" (for this area) neighborhood, I pass 3 Midnight Silver Model 3, 1 black Model 3, 1 blue Model 3 and one Dolphin Grey Model S. That's six Tesla's in all. Not to forget 2 Leaf's, 2 Bolts, and one Fiat 500e.

In addition, solar panels abound!

I walked the parking lot of 99 Ranch market in Mountain View, CA the other day. I kid you not, counted 3 Model 3, one Model S, and 5 (!) Model X! I texted my wife who was in Seattle this weekend and she said she has to yet see a Tesla car there.

It’s a completely different world outside of the Bay Area, it just shows the potential elsewhere in the US and how ridiculous the MS argument of “Tesla hit a demand air pocket” is.

 

[mongo]

View attachment 385861 I think discussions on the look of the Y are fair game here (esp. after hours) since the pencils design created by Franz and Elon will determine its level of acceptance in the wider and lucrative CUV market segment.

I love the teaser image of the front. And while we don't yet have any leaked intel (which is itself remarkable) on the rear I really hope it more resembles a Porsche Macan than a smaller X. I was never in love with the egg-shaped rear, even though I'm sure that shape is optimal for drag coefficient.

Thoughts?

It's missing the 3rd row..

I wonder what the 0-60 times are for the Semi detached from the trailer? Since it is quoted at 20sec for 0-60 hauling 80k pounds, I suspect it will be quite fast on its own, which would make it an interesting celeb status vehicle if you have a place to park it.

Note there is one seat in the center, with maybe a little folding jump seat behind,

5 seconds unloaded (sub 5 without trailer).
Jump seat on the right (with left entry cab).

 

[dc_h]

I assume you've closed out your position then.

Sure is a lot of piling on today. A couple of posters, who are fans of Tesla have expressed frustration with moves that may or may not have been shortsighted.
I personally think the sales site thing may have been less a short term gaffe, and perhaps a way to reboot as bloated sales process that was inventing sales and not service, but the way it happened gave the shorts more ammo.
Maybe there was no other way to rip off the bandaid? I don’t know but have never started two companies worth a collective 80 billion dollars, so while I have an opinion, I probably have to admit my opinion is not worth 80 billion dollars.
That sub 80B opinion is we can all listen a bit more to efforts at constructive criticism and not treat everyone like a troll.

Ps. Not singling anyone, out, just one of the seemingly hundreds of replies to a few posts.

 

[EVNow]

I walked the parking lot of 99 Ranch market in Mountain View, CA the other day. I kid you not, counted 3 Model 3, one Model S, and 5 (!) Model X! I texted my wife who was in Seattle this weekend and she said she has to yet see a Tesla car there.

That is strange. There are tons of Teslas here. Ofcourse, depends on the area your wife was in.

 

[mongo]

Don't fret, @Fred Lambert will never collect his prize: He doesn't qualify. The rules of the referral program prohibit members of the media from receiving referral prizes.

Because he promoted his referral code for personal gain on his employer's commercial news service, he further placed himself in conflict of interest. Not only will Fred never get referral Roadster, and he should also lose his job. His reporting has been noticably affected by his conflict of interest.

Given that Fred is co-founder of Electrek, I doubt he is getting fired any time soon...
Electrek - Wikipedia

 

[EVNow]

Maybe there was no other way to rip off the bandaid?

I'm sure one of these days EM will come out and say how they would have done t in hindsight.

As I wrote earlier, they should have announced the sales staff reduction during Q4 ER and combined V3 SC & 35k SR. But its possible they had not made any decisions about sales staff & 35k SR by Q4 ER.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

View attachment 385861 I think discussions on the look of the Y are fair game here (esp. after hours) since the pencils design created by Franz and Elon will determine its level of acceptance in the wider and lucrative CUV market segment.

I love the teaser image of the front. And while we don't yet have any leaked intel (which is itself remarkable) on the rear I really hope it more resembles a Porsche Macan than a smaller X. I was never in love with the egg-shaped rear, even though I'm sure that shape is optimal for drag coefficient.

Thoughts?

My personal opinion...the Y won't look much like this. This would be a complete departure from the family line. I would expect a rounder, more aerodynamic shape. We'll see soon enough!

Dan

 

[JRP3]

I was never in love with the egg-shaped rear, even though I'm sure that shape is optimal for drag coefficient.

Be prepared for disappointment then, the rules for aerodynamics haven't changed. Might not be quite as "eggy" in the rear to keep roof height a bit taller.