Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

An intraday recovery to end the day at break even or even just slightly negative would be pretty bullish. Would tell me their goal is to protect the 800 Calls and that they're not targeting 750 for Friday.

 

[Tslynk67]

Keeping an eye on 4/16 $790c's as they trend down from $4.75 in this MMD. If they hit $4.......

To buy? I fear you might be throwing money away with that - I hope not, but...

Worth mentioning that XPEV, LI and NIO are all down the today, more so than TSLA, so MM's may well have done the pre-market walk-down earlier, but macro doing all the work for them now I feel

Why, I have no idea... I read that Powell was going to make some comments, seems to be every day recently...

 

[Todd Burch]

I’m assuming the drop is due to the angry order customers of solar roof having prices raised by 20-50K across the board it seems. Lots of complaints sent out, Business Insider did an article this morning but other more “tech” publications have been covering since this weekend.

Not at all. Simply market shenanigans, bringing the price back to the Boellinger Bands.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Not at all. Simply market shenanigans, bringing the price back to the Boellinger Bands.

Exactly. There’s a reason why it was basically in free fall until these levels and now it just miraculously stabilized....

 

[Tslynk67]

They REALLY want it below $750 today. That’s what I love about being a long term shareholder and never touching options. I can just grab some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show

Sure, if you're buying weeklies it's a painful game, but when you're selling them it's also fine

 

[goinfraftw]

The Boring Company’s initial fare prices for the greater Vegas Loop are released

The Boring Company has released the fare prices for the Vegas Loop, and they are quite reasonable. With enough optimization, it appears that Elon Musk’s tunneling startup may indeed have a shot at disrupting and revolutionizing the public transportation sector. The recently finished Las Vegas...

www.teslarati.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To buy? I fear you might be throwing money away with that - I hope not, but...

Worth mentioning that XPEV, LI and NIO are all down the today, more so than TSLA, so MM's may well have done the pre-market walk-down earlier, but macro doing all the work for them now I feel

Why, I have no idea... I read that Powell was going to make some comments, seems to be every day recently...

Look at the volume. It's a mega-MMD to protect $800 on Friday.

These are already approaching green and we're not even out of the MMD! Setting sell orders and off to take a quick shower. Hoping to come back to executed sells and up 35%.

Shenanigans!

 

[GrandEnigma]

Look at the volume. It's a mega-MMD to protect $800 on Friday.

These are already approaching green and we're not even out of the MMD! Setting sell orders and off to take a quick shower. Hoping to come back to executed sells and up 35%.

Shenanigans!

I got in at $3.20 and out at $3.80. Just paid for lunch for the next month for 15min of work.

Looks like you just got your $4.20 though

 

[Tslynk67]

Look at the volume. It's a mega-MMD to protect $800 on Friday.

These are already approaching green and we're not even out of the MMD! Setting sell orders and off to take a quick shower. Hoping to come back to executed sells and up 35%.

Shenanigans!

For sure $800 is a no-go zone, but there's a lot of $750's in play now and a lot of profit to be gained if they can pull it off

Next week is another matter, the open interest is way lower

I would love to close the week >790<800, but we need macro to play a bit too, right now the MM's are getting an assist

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

For sure $800 is a no-go zone, but there's a lot of $750's in play now and a lot of profit to be gained if they can pull it off

Next week is another matter, the open interest is way lower

I would love to close the week >790<800, but we need macro to play a bit too, right now the MM's are getting an assist

We'll see if it holds, but the volume so far today has been encouraging for a close closer to 800 than 750 on Friday. It took a lot for them to cap from the 770's and the volume hasn't dried up yet. So hopefully that means there's just too much buying pressure for 750. If it gets back up to even today I could see MM's just giving up on the 750 Calls.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Call volume just today for the $800 strike is 29k - MM's could be off loading their shares to let it run tomorrow and Friday.
That's a scary amount of volume with the open interest staying relatively unchanged.

Open interest doesn't reflect intraday activity.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

*Completely agree regarding the "new record" based on a minuscule subset of geography over a random time period. It's just noise.

One of the cricket commentators over here was sick of the same thing happening with sports records and had a nice little limerick to cover it off.

There once was a man named Grover,
Who hit twenty-three runs in an over,
It was the most number run,
By a clergyman's son,
On a windy afternoon in Dover.

This will *quickly* go off the rails, before long we will be discussing the woman from Nantucket and off course, Dallas: The Crown: dirty limerick

 

[dgodfrey]

Tesla related: mainstream car buyers in UK - positive exposure

Widely watched CarWow video (680k views) on "future small Tesla" from a company who specialise in selling/leasing discounted cars, so I'm surprised they are so even handed on Tesla. Using lots of battery day slides, comparing to other UK/EU available cars like Zoe, showing how Audi/Mercedes started with tall SUVs and now offering smaller cars, Audi GT "foot garage" (battery cutaway to keep car low). Describing cost trends, overall very positive for Tesla/EVs

Large reach to general public, CarWow Youtube channel has 5.5 million subscribers (comparison: Hyperchange 152k, Now you know 250k, Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer 160k, Top Gear 8 milion)

Comments mixed but a quick scan shows many are enthusiastic - my opinion is that the form factor is much better for most people in the UK

You can't select Tesla from the CarWow main page, but can get to a page featuring Model 3/S/X with offers on the 3 (New Tesla cars | Reviews of Tesla models showing "carwow prices from £411 / month" - more details eventually gets to Tesla Model 3 Lease deals from £411pm

Pricing might not be real, I have an account already & I might update when/if I get offers through

Following another link leads to a "discontinued car" page Sign up on carwow | carwow.co.uk). Website a bit confused...

Edit: review page (text) & video Tesla Model 3 Review 2021
Edit2: I want to see media like this lead to a collapse of ICE/Hybrid car sales, with people keeping old ICE going until they can get electrics. Only then will some of the car companies go full electric, making hard decisions now (and might survive).

Is it really? We talk about razor thin margins legacy deals with. 15k discount means someone is losing money. Can't give a 35% discount and call their margins razor thin if they are still making money.

Not really on topic, but car dealers work on a multiple level bait and switch scheme. Part of the discount is already supplied by the importer or the car manufacturer, because getting a discount feels good for you as a customer. On top of that, you get baited with other discounts, so you will part with your previous car while they offer a low trade-in value. Then come the several option packs, warranty packs, insurances, financing, all to switch you while baiting on the discount of the car.

Also, you're not just handling one party: the dealer. There are commissions for all of those warranties, insurances, financing deals that the salespeople can earn. So even if it looks that the dealer has a low margin, he and his salespeople are making bank. And once you've bought your car, you need to come in for 5K service appointments which generates the real income for the dealer.

The only real power a customer has, is that they can go to another dealer to try to get a better deal. But if you're not walking in with a trade-in, and aren't getting any financing, leasing and warranty deals, you're not getting these amazing discounts.

I'm really looking forward to watching the Legacy Automakers figure out the path to solvency once it becomes illegal to sell any ICEV's. Even taking the legislation favoring EV's out of the equation, in 5 years, why would anyone want an ICEV?

The paradox facing their business model is truly satisfying to watch unfold. Currently, the legacy's EV's are only price competitive on the backs of their ICE trucks and SUV's. The recent news of the Model 3 winning Motor Trend's Luxury car of the year is significant in showing that even without Federal Incentives, the Model 3 compares favorably with its peers. I don't know if anyone did any research on if the Model 3 was also the least expensive of the competitors, but I believe it was. But they most likely are not financing the costs of their sedan offerings from the truck sales like they are with EV's.

So how will GM be able to offer the Bolt with a $15,000 discount on top of the $9,000 loss they supposedly already incur (according to Bob Lutz), once the ICE trucks and SUV's are no longer part of the equation? If GM or Ford had to price their EV lineup to be profitable on its own, the Bolt would be a $55,000 Sonic.

And the GM faithful look to the Ultium battery as their knight in shining armor that will showcase GM's superior battery tech and catapult GM to the top of the EV mountain. Finally, GM will put Tesla in their place. Hallelujah. They conveniently have ignored that the modular skateboard battery pack in various sizes is circa 2012. But, the real advantage is Ultium's cost advantage where they hope to get their battery costs below $100/kWh. Meanwhile, Tesla has shown how they plan to get their costs in the $60/kWh range. Not just made the claim, but show how they will do it in great detail.

Other than economies of scale, GM's been pretty tight lipped on exactly how they hope to accomplish this. Their battery reveal in sharp contrast to Tesla's battery day didn't really explain anything that would lead one to believe they have a leg up on the competition. No breakthrough in manufacturing, materials, efficiency, form factor, density, weight, structural pack, etc. The truth is, just like the Bolts, anemic charge rate making the car obsolete before it rolled off the assembly line, so too will their Ultium battery go down as an epic failure to innovate.

Currently, the battle cry justifying the purchase of a non-Tesla has typically been price. Otherwise how else can one justify passing on the industry leader in:

• Safety
• Performance
• Efficiency
• Range
• Value
• Resale
• Technology
• Charging Infrastructure
• OTA's
• Autonomy
• Sales model
• TCO

So how exactly do they expect to compete when the exorbitant profits of their trucks and SUV's will no longer subsidize their existence? I suppose they expect to still rape the consumers with ungodly profits from their EV trucks of course. Surely they will be able to make a healthy profit on an E150 at $20k more than the ICE version. Probably could have, except for the Cybertruck, which will decimate their planned gouging experiment before it ever gets off the ground.
It's going to be a long, long time before legacy figures out how to make just EV's and still remain profitable. I have my popcorn ready.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For sure $800 is a no-go zone, but there's a lot of $750's in play now and a lot of profit to be gained if they can pull it off

Next week is another matter, the open interest is way lower

I would love to close the week >790<800, but we need macro to play a bit too, right now the MM's are getting an assist

I think you may get exactly that. MM's let go later this afternoon as COIN delirium sets in and all retail floods into that. Then they rotate back out covering all this shorting throughout the day Thurs and we close around $792-798 Friday. Everybody wins(loses).

Shower now complete and apparently I still own one $790c for Friday.

In at $4.20, $3.65, $3.20
Out at $4.20, $5
Waiting on $6 to execute

Hundreds of dollars for free in less than an hour! (knock on wood for the last contract)

This is what I assume a chunk of old-time TMCers are now doing on these obvious dip days. Might start doing it more.

Edit: Sold! Guess I shoulda held out for $10 across the board for a 2.5x, but whatever.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 4 minutes ago: Unusual Options Activity - TSLA

Excerpt:

For TSLA (NASDAQ:TSLA), we notice a put option sweep that happens to be bullish, expiring in 2 day(s) on April 16, 2021. This event was a transfer of 700 contract(s) at a $750.00 strike. This particular put needed to be split into 6 different trades to become filled. The total cost received by the writing party (or parties) was $805.9K, with a price of $1150.0 per contract. There were 4705 open contracts at this strike prior to today, and today 50276 contract(s) were bought and sold.

 

[bpjod]

Barron's - 10 minutes ago: TSLA always rises before earnings

Excerpt:

Over the past eight quarters, Tesla stock has risen six out of eight times between the end of the quarter and the actual report. What’s more, the average gain is about 6%. Not too bad.

So now "six out of eight times" = "always"?

Got it. So is this that New Math they've been talking about?

 

[Unpilot]

So now "six out of eight times" = "always"?

Got it. So is this that New Math they've been talking about?

Only if you somehow insert "always" in the post you referenced.

 

[capster]

Definitely sold on the series, aka Oxford or serial, comma. To wit, this gem from a hit piece in today’s New York Times:

"Welcome to the Silver State, where Elon Musk, a cryptocurrency tycoon and a brothel owner are using a symbol of Americana as a social media recruiting tool."

The Next Level in Office Amenities: Wild Horses (Published 2021)

The mustangs at a Nevada office park are an example of the outrageous perks that businesses dangle to impress job candidates, but wildlife advocates are pushing back on efforts to market them.

www.nytimes.com

edit:
The first minute or two of this video explains:

This is a witty, quick read that I recommend to anyone writing in American English: Dreyer's English: An Utterly Correct Guide to Clarity and Style|NOOK Book

 

[MP3Mike]

Only if you somehow insert "always" in the post you referenced.

Look at the headline for the article/link that that excerpt was pulled from...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

COIN opens and TSLA drops $4. $381.

IN for 3 token shares. Sell 2 @ $420.69 or sit on it forever?