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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla has increased the value of the SC network over the last 4-5 years and now has as of 4Q report 23,277 connectors at 2,564 stations... the value of the network = 542M

your post adds a key point to the value statement above .... it is not just the number of network nodes that matters ... but where they are located which helps create the Moat.... i watched the Munro Live video where he charges a VW at the Electrify America charger and i was LMAO .... he is an Automotive Engineer and he could not take it ... a few charging interactions like that and buyers remorse will set in .... also how easy the node it to interact with at the UI ....
here is link to video
in case you missed it this is a friction filled transaction :D

Sandy Quote"the best part of the whole trip was the coffee"
I halfway wonder if VW designed EA to be purposely obtuse back when they were forced to build the network in order to discourage EV adoption. Now that they NEED it... well, we reap what we sow.
 
Yikes. $750 looking pretty vulnerable if you ask me.

Am I nuts or can you just buy a massive spread of calls every Friday at 10:40am for the following Friday and sell them the following Tuesday at 9:40 for a killing? I really need to deep dive some historical data and see if that's true. Certainly seems like it is during every period where TSLA is "underpriced" per TMC consensus. Basically you just eat the MM shorting each week.
 
The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

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But against the Euro the dollar is actually up over the last year. So according to that theory they should have lowered prices in Canada and raised them in Europe. The opposite of what they did.

The us/euro has gone both up and down the last year so without knowing more it's simply impossible to know why and when prices are changing.

A just as likely guess is that with Berlin coming along in the fall they will probably start pushing model y sales in Europe soon. With a lower than expected price since they are locally made with the savings that come from that. So they needed to adjust model 3 prices to be more inline with what the model y prices will be.
 
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Yikes. $750 looking pretty vulnerable if you ask me.

Am I nuts or can you just buy a massive spread of calls every Friday at 10:40am for the following Friday and sell them the following Tuesday at 9:40 for a killing? I really need to deep dive some historical data and see if that's true. Certainly seems like it is during every period where TSLA is "underpriced" per TMC consensus. Basically you just eat the MM shorting each week.
Joe Mama! The day just got more interesting.
 
I kind of like that misguided storyline because it's so mind-numbingly stupid it's entertaining. That perspective is completely blind to the fact that the auto market is really huge compared to total EV sales of only 2% and thus sales of EV's from the OEMs don't gut Tesla EV sales, they slice off increasingly larger portions of the OEM's own gasoline car sales. Their perspective is so oblivious to what's actually happening on the ground it's hilariously entertaining.

The story should be: "OEM EV's are competing with their own gasoline offerings, vehicles they have spent decades developing to achieve margins they still can't manage with their fledgling EV offerings. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because the more EV's they make, the less profit they generate. On the other hand, if they don't manufacture EV's in high volumes, they cannot achieve the necessary economies of scale to compete with Tesla, the leader in EV manufacturing. Tesla continues to expand production of EV's, lowering production costs and making it ever more difficult for the large OEM's to compete. Meanwhile, Tesla has already achieved higher margins on EV's than the OEM's have with their gasoline offerings which Tesla sales are eroding in ever increasing numbers. The only hope for OEM's is to hope they can match Tesla's EV volumes and efficiencies before they go broke."

Instead they say "Look out Tesla, here they come!". 🤪
yup innovators dilemma in action
I halfway wonder if VW designed EA to be purposely obtuse back when they were forced to build the network in order to discourage EV adoption. Now that they NEED it... well, we reap what we sow.
that could very well be ... for those old timers who watched the little rascals it reminds of this clip when Spanky changed his mind about sabotaging his act for the love of Darla

no guys i was just kidding "VW wants to win"
 
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Wow, what price action. Wednesday I thought we would get move on Thursday then have quiet Friday. This stinks of bigger money !!! I love a buying Friday!
 

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Peripherally On Topic....it's Okay: I approve this post....

The photos of the Cybertruck at the Texas Gigafactory yesterday clearly show a vehicle whose tires extend outside its wheel fenders. I know not the laws in all 50 states, but I do know - and from unhappy experience - that that is illegal in the states of Alaska and Washington.


And here we go......
In the 6-7 states I travel in 50% of the pickups are running 32s or 35s. Which stick out well past the fender edge. A lot of the rest are lifted and run even bigger, many of which are unsafe on pavement. My cop neighbor says they ignore them. Nobody enforces the laws anymore.
 
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The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

View attachment 654289

It's funny how two people looking at the same data see two different things:

You see the $CAD going from $0.70 to $0.80 $USD.

I see the $CAD has remained more or less stable at about $0.77 $USD.

Is the recent move part of a longer term trend higher? Who knows, I have no reason to think it is. Everything fluctuates, what matters is long-term trends.
 
@jbcarioca
barely 7 years ago there were -->71<-- Superchargers in the entire North American continent and a father-daughter team did a 6 day New York to California trip in 6 days (200 mile range between SC's max) in a model S
(1 week before Tesla did so)
there is a map
things are changing extremely rapidly in just 7 years
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So ~10 years for the rest to catch up then. And with all the prime spots going fast, cost of each new spot should rise over time (just like what's happening with battery supplies). If gas stations get electrified - nice conflict of interest there, and not a lot a room at a Circle K. They need stalls, and truck stops have some space. But I'm not gonna solve that problem for them, maybe they can figure something out. So far, not impressed by competition and charging. I occasionally think they're all out to prove EVs are such a pain. Wait until the consumer catches on... this is crucial to sales and the #1 fear factor.
 
Joe Mama! The day just got more interesting.
I wish there was more transparency on the MM side because it sure as hell looks this week like tons of buying has been artificially soaked up by naked shorting. Fine with me I guess, but the more they do this today the greater the uncoiling next week.

We get sell-the-news a lot on quarterly earnings, but I'm thinking all this shorting ahead of time keeps that from happening the week of the 26th. Reality might be something closer to a snap to $850-$900 then a slow climb to $1000. We shall see. Depends on how clearly the implications of this month's P&D are absorbed by the market.
 
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In Space land, it's getting hot: the downselect for Human Landing System* has, according to Eric Berger, been made. It may or may not be announced today, but it's going to be big. Really big. I'm crossing fingers for as big as Super Heavy + starship. If SpaceX wins it's going to influence TSLA.

Latest news is that it'll be announced ~3 hours from now. But again, no guarantees.

* 3 companies are competing for a NASA contract to deliver a human landing system usable on the moon.
 
I halfway wonder if VW designed EA to be purposely obtuse back when they were forced to build the network in order to discourage EV adoption. Now that they NEED it... well, we reap what we sow.

From the Sandy video, he gave VW the benefit of the doubt that they wanted to mimic the gas station experience. Instant TMC mind thought, "oh boy. If so, VW is not embracing innovation and trying to be safe. Not a good sign".
 
I the 6-7 states I travel in 50% of the pickups are running 32s or 35s. Which stick out well past the fender edge. A lot of the rest are lifted and run even bigger, many of which are unsafe on pavement. My cop neighbor says they ignore them. Nobody enforces the laws anymore.
Not to get too far off topic, aren't the regs regarding fender coverage (and similar things) most often applicable only to the manufacturer at the federal level, and, only to commercial owner / operators at the state level?

Once it is in the hands of the consumer (non-commercial) those regs may have no teeth. People can do all sorts of dumb things with their cars, and clearly do all sorts of things.

This would support how the CT will have adequate fender width when produced, and they can easily accomplish this by selling it with a narrower wheel/tire that the fender covers.

Granted, no such regs apply to prototypes, so those can look as bada55 as they want them to. :cool:
 
Peripherally On Topic....it's Okay: I approve this post....

The photos of the Cybertruck at the Texas Gigafactory yesterday clearly show a vehicle whose tires extend outside its wheel fenders. I know not the laws in all 50 states, but I do know - and from unhappy experience - that that is illegal in the states of Alaska and Washington.


And here we go......
Nothing a little tin whacking and bigger trim won’t fix.
 
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I’m still getting my mind around Occidental paying carbon credits — let’s just say all my skepticism sensors are overloading.

I’m still digesting this article...

 
Frequently people here discuss 'moats' of Tesla.
Then they should stop. Elon sez: "First of all, I think moats are lame. It's nice sort of quaint in a vestigial way. If your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness."

(one of my all time favorite business quotes)

Supercharging is not a 'moat'! Supercharging isn't meant to compete with other companies' EVs but with gasoline cars! Eventually all EVs will have great charging infrastructure. The purpose of Supercharging is to mitigate the key competitive advantage that gasoline cars have over electric cars over a specific 10-15 year time period between the introduction of EVs and the full buildout of EV infrastructure. By mitigating ICE's advantage in long-distance travel, the Supercharger network serves to advance Tesla's core mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport.