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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just an after-hours thought:
Unlike some years ago I noticed that I am about the only left who who still has a (reasonably) realistic profile photo.
Is that because everybody else now has to protect their privacy after they became billionaires?
Either way, it's boring...

This photo is obviously 30 years old, back when you were Danish.
 
Just an after-hours thought:
Unlike some years ago I noticed that I am about the only left who who still has a (reasonably) realistic profile photo.
Is that because everybody else now has to protect their privacy after they became billionaires?
Either way, it's boring...
I would not subject my worst enemy to a realistic profile photo of myself.
 
I listened to Rob talking about hoping the answer to this question will open up some eyes from institutional investors. My take is that it wouldn't do a thing because.

1. Elon already said he will open up Dojo for monetization

2. It is still unclear what he is selling here. Something like this requires AI day to fully flesh out what this product is exactly and why would anyone be interested. It's also keen to already have a paying customer trial running this, giving the stamp of approval. And if he's selling this as "your only way to L5 autonomy", there needs to be a proof of concept of this as in FSD 1.0 L5 achieved. Not having L5 achieved makes whatever this is no better or worst than all the other training servers that haven't reached L5 for their customers.

Even though Tesla have gotten a ton of credibility from their financial guide and production guide, the area they lack credibility the most is their autonomy program. So stock will not move based on anything FSD related until wallstreet sees that revenue stream first hand, not on a story.
They don’t need to wait for L5 FSD to sell DOJO as a service.

And, it would be a service that’s much more than FSD training. Same way as AWS is much more than hosting a e-commerce website.

From what I understand, DOJO can be applied to any real world perception training, where you have streams of videos as input and try to train a neuro net to understand the content.

Dojo as a service can be generalized to apply to many areas, robotics, video surveillance, self-checkout, and many more we can not imagine yet. In short, any real world AI application.

I don’t think many Wall Street analysts are aware of the possible applications. And definitely no one has priced it in their models.

If Elon could make that point clear, it would be a surprise to many people
 
Just an after-hours thought:
Unlike some years ago I noticed that I am about the only left who who still has a (reasonably) realistic profile photo.
Is that because everybody else now has to protect their privacy after they became billionaires?
Either way, it's boring...
What’s not realistic about mine? That’s literally me languishingly stretching and having not shaven, ever.

And, duh. Quite clearly nobody here is invited, also ever. You show up on a mountain bike and I will escort you off the steep side whether you’re wearing short shorts or not.
 


Indeed, some still cost more than others to insure, and Insurance.com has determined the most expensive cars to insure for 2021. The company calculated full coverage for a single 40-year-old male with a clean record, good credit, and 12 miles of commuting to work each day. This hypothetical driver has policy limits of $100,000 for injury liability for one person, $300,000 for all injuries, and $50,000 in property damage. He opted for comprehensive and uninsured motorist coverage as well as a $500 deductible.

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Tesmanian- today: Tesla - India

Excerpt:

Tesla Inc. has reportedly selected the Mumbai (Bombay) prime area to host its first corporate office in India. In addition, a company store will also be set up there. Tesla has so far evaluated several completed commercial properties in the Lower Parel-Worli area. The company's goal is to find approximately 40,000 square feet for office and retail space to begin operations in India shortly.
 
They don’t need to wait for L5 FSD to sell DOJO as a service.

And, it would be a service that’s much more than FSD training. Same way as AWS is much more than hosting a e-commerce website.

From what I understand, DOJO can be applied to any real world perception training, where you have streams of videos as input and try to train a neuro net to understand the content.

Dojo as a service can be generalized to apply to many areas, robotics, video surveillance, self-checkout, and many more we can not imagine yet. In short, any real world AI application.

I don’t think many Wall Street analysts are aware of the possible applications. And definitely no one has priced it in their models.

If Elon could make that point clear, it would be a surprise to many people
They want to sell it but there needs to be buyers. Tesla's credibility in this area has always been over promising and under delivering.

However if FSD 1.0 becomes a thing using DOJO then they will be showered with demand. Before that, Elon's credibility in this area is as good as "FSD L5 by the end of this year"...which you know I am hopeful for...
 
They want to sell it but there needs to be buyers. Tesla's credibility in this area has always been over promising and under delivering.

However if FSD 1.0 becomes a thing using DOJO then they will be showered with demand. Before that, Elon's credibility in this area is as good as "FSD L5 by the end of this year"...which you know I am hopeful for...

Achieving FSD 1.0 has nothing to do with DOJO. DOJO is just a faster way to train the networks they are currently training using GPUs. (They could release FSD 1.0 before SOJO is up and running.)

DOJO is purely about computing power focused on AI training vs. using off the shelf GPUs. The only advantage of DOJO will be iterating faster, it isn't going to make FSD better just by switching the training from GPUs to DOJO. (Like some people think.)

Even if Tesla never solves FSD DOJO could prove to be of great utility/value to other people/companies.
 
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Achieving FSD 1.0 has nothing to do with DOJO. DOJO is just a faster way to train the networks they are currently training using GPUs. (They could release FSD 1.0 before SOJO is up and running.)

DOJO is purely about computing power focused on AI training vs. using off the shelf GPUs. The only advantage of DOJO will be iterating faster, it isn't going to make FSD better just by switching the training from GPUs to DOJO. (Like some people think.)
You do realize that Dojo, if it's similar to their FSD chip, does not use GPUs to train. They build an ASIC NN cluster that calculates matrix at a much faster rate than GPUs. The FSD chip has a relatively small GPU that has the computing power of a low end graphics card.

Achieving FSD 1.0 has everything to do with building credibility. Dojo is not even needed, but it shows that Tesla knows what they are doing, giving weight to Elon's promises of what Dojo can do.
 
They don’t need to wait for L5 FSD to sell DOJO as a service.
Indeed. Tesla's FSD team has around 100 hardware engineers, 200 software engineers and 500 labelers. Andrej Karpathy talks about Operation Vacation, the goal of which is to get the FSD to the level where the job of the hardware and software engineers is mostly done and the labelers will take care of the rest of the March of Nines. That day might not be very far away.

What will happen to the top level hardware and software engineers if and when Operation Vacation is successful? Will Tesla just let them go or will they find something else for them to do? My guess is the AI day is a lot about answering this question.
 
Regarding the talk about using Dojo as a service to others: won't Tesla itself be using Dojo extensively for training its FSD system? meaning there won't be much time available for external customers to use it?

(I dont know much about this, but thought that Tesla was primarily building Dojo for itself first and foremost).
 
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You do realize that Dojo, if it's similar to their FSD chip, does not use GPUs to train. They build an ASIC NN cluster that calculates matrix at a much faster rate than GPUs. The FSD chip has a relatively small GPU that has the computing power of a low end graphics card.

Achieving FSD 1.0 has everything to do with building credibility. Dojo is not even needed, but it shows that Tesla knows what they are doing.

Elon has already said that DOJO is not an inference chip like the FSD computer.

The point is that it will be more powerful than GPUs, not less powerful. But still optimized for training NNs, which is a completely different task than running NNs. (No relation to the FSD chip.)
 
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Off Topic, but I hope the mods will leave this one as I think this is useful for this thread and recent avatar discussion.

Avatars and personal information are something I encourage everyone to think about before sharing in this thread. I have a fair amount of experience in creating, administrating, moderating, and participating in online forums. I've worked with different online communities professionally and as a hobby since 1999. I have seen many of the edge cases, dramatic behaviors, stalking, etc.

This thread is widely known in the internet space, and is not difficult to find. Anyone can read this thread. It doesn't take much time reading in this thread to realize there are many participants that have at least a seven figure investment account. Many have much more. Every piece of personal information you share (your picture, your name, where you live, your age, your occupation, your hobbies, etc) can help someone identify who you are. While I think most people would come to this thread looking for Tesla information and investment information, there may be people that come here looking for new marks to scam out of money, or worse. I'm not suggesting everyone live in fear, as that is no way to live, but I am suggesting people be prudent and thoughtful about sharing too much personally identifying information.

I think a fair amount of this community consists of older people, many of which may not be as savvy regarding the internet. For the younger crowd, it isn't difficult to connect the pieces. Most people won't, but some people have other motivations.

All of that said, I recommend against using your own picture as your avatar and against using your name as your username.
 
They want to sell it but there needs to be buyers. Tesla's credibility in this area has always been over promising and under delivering.

However if FSD 1.0 becomes a thing using DOJO then they will be showered with demand. Before that, Elon's credibility in this area is as good as "FSD L5 by the end of this year"...which you know I am hopeful for...

Odd criteria.

I think they would just have show DOJO achieving state of the art via visual input reinforcement learning one of the top games of this century.

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Indeed. Tesla's FSD team has around 100 hardware engineers, 200 software engineers and 500 labelers.
Is this a known fact? Is there a source? I mean I knew it probably wasn't a dozen nerds in a basement but that sounds like .... a lot.

Many analysts seem to think FSD will have something 98% margin. That's gonna take several years to get to with that many on the payroll.