Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

You don't give as much credit as the majority of people do to the FORD Brand.
IF Ford brings this product to market near the specs and price a larger percentage of people will buy it instead of a better Spec'd Tesla simply because "Ford" means "Safe" to them, and Tesla is still going to be an unknown entity in their minds.
Besides, I said this before I read it anywhere (and it is the reason I eventually got kicked off the Cyber(nota)truck owner's Forum), The cyber(nota)truck is not truck. It is so many things.
It was decided to call it a "Truck" so that the large truck segment would consider as a replacement for the trucks they now own. Why do you think the "Model" naming was not used for the Cyber(nota)truck? And why has Elon already stated that there will be NO badging on the vehicle?
The cyber(nota)truck is going to interrupt several segments, from pick-ups to luxury SUV's to vanagons, and campers.
To bring this back to an even more Stock investment perspective...go look at the five year stock price (or all of the history for that matter), look for the highest volume EVER by a HUGE amount, and try and not give the Cyber(nota)truck credit for a large portion of it. Nothing since has affected the stock like that.

I like this line of reasoning. The CT is a specialty vehicle, even with a run rate of 500k to 1000k units per year, like a MBZ GL SUV. It is targeted to the luxury market, but the only problem i have with it is the price-- tesla should have made it more expensive to maximize revenue.

While i'm not a ford fan, bringing an EV F150 is part of the mission to accelerate clean energy. I think if ford can do it, kudos to them, because it will mean one less ICE pickup on the road. There will be an inflection point, where if there are enough EVs then, gas stations will decline. At first gas will be more expensive d/t fewer stations and supply chain, but then will be so plentiful they won't be able to give it away. At that point, EVs would be so prevalent that there would be no real impetus to change back to ICE.

 

[2daMoon]

Granted, I have no insight as to what goes on behind the Wall Street curtain, but it seems at some point the Shorties must be sayin' something like;

"We've thrown everything we can at TSLA. We've dug ourselves in much deeper than is comfortable.

We've generated spectacular FUD, stirred the social media pot, and the best we could accomplish was to get the SP to here. WTF!

We wanted to destroy them after last year, and this is all we could manage to do?

It just isn't fair. "

 

[Cherry Wine]

Actually, it’s just marketing.....if you creatively parse it, it’s “true”....

The truck is expected to go on sale next spring [TRUE]
, with a starting price of $39,974 for a model that can travel 230 miles on a full charge [TRUE]
....

I would be remiss if I didn't correct the record here; it appears that the 5/24 reference was to May 24, 2021, a date on which more details about the commercial version ($39k) would be available, and not "May 2024" as some were originally speculating. (See below tweet)

So while the $39k version will be stripped down, it seems likely that it will be available at launch or soon thereafter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395231167616626689

 

[Hock1]

My good friend and WNBA superstar Candace Parker just told me she ordered a refreshed Model S back around March-April and got a delivery date of July-August if anyone cares

I ordered a refreshed S for my wife on March 24. I have a delivery estimate of August. The fact that it is red with white interior may push it back a bit, as it might be an unusual combination. In any case---about the same time frame as your friend. I'm planning on replacing my 2018 75D with a Plaid or a Plaid+. Just waiting for updated, definitive specs.

 

[StealthP3D]

The CT is a specialty vehicle, even with a run rate of 500k to 1000k units per year, like a MBZ GL SUV.

What does that make the F-150 Lightning for it's first 4 years of production? A Limited Edition collector's item?

While i'm not a ford fan, bringing an EV F150 is part of the mission to accelerate clean energy. I think if ford can do it, kudos to them, because it will mean one less ICE pickup on the road.

I'm more bullish on Ford Lightning production than you appear to be. I think they will produce more than one next year. I hope I'm right.

 

[WattsHappening]

I ordered a refreshed S for my wife on March 24. I have a delivery estimate of August. The fact that it is red with white interior may push it back a bit, as it might be an unusual combination. In any case---about the same time frame as your friend. I'm planning on replacing my 2018 75D with a Plaid or a Plaid+. Just waiting for updated, definitive specs.

I think that's going to be a very popular color combo (see sig ).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I see some familiar Twitter peeps making the same mistakes on their quarterly number estimates as they made last quarter. They’re likely to be more off percentage wise than they were last quarter . Maybe they’ll learn to stop making gut assumptions based on their own opinions verses following the actually numbers/data after they miss even more badly in this quarter

 

[henchman24]

I like this line of reasoning. The CT is a specialty vehicle, even with a run rate of 500k to 1000k units per year, like a MBZ GL SUV. It is targeted to the luxury market, but the only problem i have with it is the price-- tesla should have made it more expensive to maximize revenue.

While i'm not a ford fan, bringing an EV F150 is part of the mission to accelerate clean energy. I think if ford can do it, kudos to them, because it will mean one less ICE pickup on the road. There will be an inflection point, where if there are enough EVs then, gas stations will decline. At first gas will be more expensive d/t fewer stations and supply chain, but then will be so plentiful they won't be able to give it away. At that point, EVs would be so prevalent that there would be no real impetus to change back to ICE.

A million sales in the US per year would make the CyberTruck the top selling truck in the US and about as far from a specialty vehicle as there is. Ford sold just under 800k F Series (all not just F150) in the US last year. The Silverado and Ram were both between 5-600k (these include heavy duty too). If Tesla gets to 500k... it is as mainstream as any other pickup.

 

[H Mak]

More from The Telegraph today on the possibility of a UK gigafactory

Bring Tesla to Teesside, Ben Houchen tells Elon Musk​

Teesside mayor tells the tycoon his region would host a new factory for the electric car manufacturer "in a flash"

Issuing a Twitter plea to the US tech tycoon after The Telegraph revealed growing speculation that Mr Musk could seek to build a UK factory, Mr Houchen said: "Hartlepool and the Tees Valley still stand ready to deliver a new Gigafactory - Just say the word."

Mr Houchen is already overseeing the biggest regeneration project in the UK across 4,500 acres of land, including the former SSI steelworks, in a region set to become Britain's largest freeport.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Something's teasing me here... So far, so good, but really?

Spoiler: That Darn Threshold

We've all been here at one time, at some threshold in our account, as if it means something. Gets us questioning our goals once again. On one hand, it's a sanity check and maybe a time to throttle back on spending. But after a while, it can have the effect of limiting one's vision or start questioning things on the bucket list. Whether this line is $1,000... $1M... or $10M, I'm sure this is true with everyone to some degree.

Make no mistake, this is the Dark Side. The evil ones who keep telling us to get out before it's too late. That supplier parts are going to run out somewhere, or the Bond yield might run away. But come on... $5xx SP? But then, ~3 days later, things change again. Upgrades, new tech, factory flyovers, news from @CurtRenz (thanks so much!) - always something NEW to learn here.

This 5xx is so stupid low when nothing has changed beyond the usual noise and to the plus side I think. Q1, Roadster 1.1s, Active Foil/Plaid + in 2 weeks, Castings outta Tx already... need I say more? I simply cannot invest in any other company now, it would be a step down. Just like realizing that I would never get another ICE vehicle again, I wouldn't divest TSLA beyond maybe ARK or a few Cryptos to keep tabs. And cash is pointless beyond what we really need short-term (however you define that) due to inflation worries. Yet so many of my friends are still waiting for bottom sitting on cash.

I really gotta thank so many of you here because I'm pretty confident in the way this is going to play out just this year alone. Ford, gm, many others appear serious but also seriously challenged. Yesterday, I didn't see a threat from Ford, not even after 2025. All I saw was more encouragement to try it out and a great message for everyone frankly. And thank you Joe for helping tell the Electric Story to all those new people.

Stayed in HODL mode.
Cheers!

 

[Hock1]

I think that's going to be a very popular color combo (see sig ).

We have similar tastes: My 2018 S is silver and my wife's refresh will be red/white. You're right. I have seen many 3s with that red/white combo. Beautiful. (Apologies to board for OT conversation--just seemed to be a lull in relevant posts) Thanks

 

[Dwdnjck]

Could someone please post the Rachel Maddox bit on the F150 Lightning from last night? I lack skills, but I do think it bodes well for Tesla and an ominous period for Ford.

 

[MABMAB]

I think blaming shorts for price action is short sighted. There was a lot of crap floating to the top of the market (GME SPACs, etc) and it was time to flush things out. The market has kind of moved in unison as these excesses get cleaned out. No, nothing changed with the Tesla story. A rising tide raises all ships, same when the tide goes out. These things take time to work themselves out, but they do work themselves out. When I look back at the times I jumped out of Apple or netflix in a panic, things were bad in all of the market. Things get better...they do. History repeats itself. There is also some self fulfilling seasonality, sell in May stay away kind of stuff. Presidential cycles kind of stuff. But the uncertainty in the market wears out and the bull gets ridden again. Even the pros can be way off in timing (Gary Black).

 

[MABMAB]

Ford Lightning EV - Bogleheads.org

Lots of pro Ford Lightning truck comments here. I disagree, but my opinions dont often matter to others.

 

[SunCatcher]

Could someone please post the Rachel Maddox bit on the F150 Lightning from last night? I lack skills, but I do think it bodes well for Tesla and an ominous period for Ford.

"If the Ford F-150 becomes an electric vehicle... if Ford can transition that particular vehicle to electric; because as an electric vehicle it's better... goodbye gas cars in America."

 

[kanweg]

Stockprice seems to be on AP again. Nice that someone turned it back on.

 

[elasalle]

"If the Ford F-150 becomes an electric vehicle... if Ford can transition that particular vehicle to electric; because as an electric vehicle it's better... goodbye gas cars in America."

Oh Tesla, you have so much to disrupt

You are that Bull, looking at a valley full of cows.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Stockprice seems to be on AP again. Nice that someone turned it back on.

TIll the next alleged 'accident'.....

 

[SunCatcher]

Oh Tesla, you have so much to disrupt

I think the disruption from this point forward will happen from within.

"innovator's Dilemma" spares no one.

 

[Tachyon]

it is not necessary to ban them, that, to me, is not the correct way to look at it

A vehicle is actually just a fuel tank, constantly searching for more fuel, while transporting humans

witness the east coast fuel shortages simply caused because the owners of the fuel pipeline could not trust buyers to pay for what they got.
It was shut down mostly because they didn’t trust buyers to pay costs, and 10’s of 1,000’s of vehicles ran out of fuel, as did the stations that supplied them.

{i manufacture 160% of my needed fuel from virtually zero marginal cost sunshine}

If there are virtually no fossil fuel stations to supply unobtainable “go juice”, bans on fossil fuel vehicles won’t matter,
it will be a moot point,
they will become variations on “yard art”, slowly rusting into piles of reddish dust like the 2 on our farm did over 4 decades, trees and brush growing up through

We didn’t need to ban horses.People just don’t use them for daily transport anymore, CHANGE always happens faster than you might think.