Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[canoemore]

Everything: shoots upward
TSLA: but I am le tired

 

[Big Time]

Further proof of the simulation NKLA is up 6% as TSLA is red.

What exactly does NKLA make/ sell?

Girl Scout cookies now mainly

 

[UltradoomY]

I'm very excited about the Plaid event Thursday night but alas I will be sleeping by then. I am even more excited though from getting to see them in wild, on YouTube, in reviews to start stoking the flames of a blow out Q2!

If the narrative for any rotation out of TSLA since highs in January was due to delayed Model S launch, that should be put to bed now (ignoring other pressures - bitcoin, 10 yr treasuries, etc.)

 

[Nocturnal]

The stock is priced for Giga Berlin and Giga TX being about as productive as Giga Shanghai. We are at almost 1 million cars a year run rate now. Wallstreet is assuming the two new factories bring us to 2 million a year. I personally feel TX is a sleeper factory and will be able to put out close to 1 million vehicles per year alone when fully built. And I am just talking about the footprint under construction today (main+battery) not any further buildings they put down on that huge plot of land.

When GF Berlin and GF TX are done, plus shanghai expansion, I think we will be at 3.5 million per year. The stock is not priced for that yet.

3.5 million would be 2 years out though right? Or do you think earlier?

I'm very excited about the Plaid event Thursday night but alas I will be sleeping by then. I am even more excited though from getting to see them in wild, on YouTube, in reviews to start stoking the flames of a blow out Q2!

If the narrative for any rotation out of TSLA since highs in January was due to delayed Model S launch, that should be put to bed now (ignoring other pressures - bitcoin, 10 yr treasuries, etc.)

All of the ICE cars will be staying away from the track for a while.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You made it tough to just click a reaction. I disagree with the italics and agree with the bold. The stock is not priced for perfection, even without Robotaxi. See @StarFoxisDown! 's post just before yours... 100% growth in 2021, 100% growth in 2022, etc. The SP will not stay flat for years again. I am betting (literally) it will be making new highs by January.

I completely understand the fear of "Wall St's doing what it did before.....we're going to be range bound for years" thought process and so I'm mostly posting to point out the differences between now and then. Back in that 4-5 year trading range that we were stuck in, Tesla had no earnings. It was super easy for anyone to question will they make a profit, how much of profit, etc... and to simply say "well...even if they make a profit they'll only have profits/margins similar to other auto makers and thus this shouldn't be worth much". And if they did secretly know that Tesla would outclass traditional auto margins/profits....they knew they had years before Tesla would be able to scale to prove it out.

Today.....we're already seeing how Tesla's gross margins and operating margins outclass the auto industry and we're only just at the start of the growth run with 1 gigafactory still ramping to full capacity and 2 more waiting in the wings. Vastly different set up here and this is without me taking into account the big catalyst of FSD/subscription that, whenever it does release, with combination of deferred revenue recognition combined with drastic uptake in the software, will cause a pretty absurd earnings transformation. Probably unlike anything we've ever seen. Amazon got credit for AWS's impact in it's stock price/valuation way....way before they were actually generating profits from it that actually impacted the company's earnings (which is why Amazon's P/E was at 3,000 at one point). Tesla has gotten none of that so far.

 

[Singuy]

Further proof of the simulation NKLA is up 6% as TSLA is red.

What exactly does NKLA make/ sell?

High short interest. Currently every highly shorted about to go bankrupt stock is hitting ATHs.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm gonna be the double genius here.
First...
One day a report comes out that is pulled outta someone's butt that Tesla can't sell cars in China, and the stock drops $25. And then recovers "nicely" back up to the $600-ish mark. Yeah MM's!
And then something carrying much more wait comes out about there is great demand for Teslas in China, and the stock goes up $20 overnight. And is quickly brought back down to $600-ish. Boo MM's.
Both ways it is damning that the stock is not moving in relation to any metric related to the company. Period.

Second, (SoulPedl gets some cred for this)
The painting of the tesla track could facilitate rides with NO ONE in the driver's seats, displaying a new level/feel for FSD.
That could be one of two rides offered. "The "Go FAST" ride being the other.

 

[The Accountant]

The end of Quarter local China deliveries begin. At the 3:25 mark, you'll see the strong activity loading the car carriers.
Video from Wu WA

 

[dl003]

If you have tried to grow a business quickly, you know that growth is messy. When you implement something new, it costs a lot more than a similar but existing process. Case in point: TSLA suffered massively in H1 2019 when it expanded to Europe. The company is still implementing a massive expansion as we speak. All those costs and inefficiencies mask its true earning quality. One needs to dig deeper to back out all these temporary costs and to see progress. That's a huge advantage we hold over the average investors. We know where TSLA has been and where it is now. They don't so they rely on the media and so-called market experts.
Tesla is executing well on both fronts: growth and cost cutting. I believe we hit the bottom on gross margin in Q1 when only 2,000 S&X were sold. Not gonna take long for PE to come crashing down and when that happens, you want to be in the stock. We are not talking news cycle anymore. Nope, can't compete with the memes and the squeezes. We are talking earnings and that only happens 4 times a year. But when that happens, it's going to make it worth the wait.

 

[2Pearls]

I'll hold judgement on how this week plays out until I see whether the powers that be are able to walk the SP back down to 600.

You are very perceptive...they have managed to walk down the price in less then a day!

we need a stock split to level the playing field.

 

[Curt Renz]

Lordstown (RIDE -16.3%)

Dow Jones through my brokerage's newsfeed:

Lordstown Motors Amends Annual Filing With Going Concern Notice​

3:43 pm ET June 8, 2021 (Dow Jones)
By Ben Foldy Electric-truck startup Lordstown Motors Corp. disclosed in a new regulatory filing Tuesday that it doesn't have sufficient cash to start commercial production and has doubts about whether it can continue as a going concern through the end of the year. (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 08, 2021 15:43 ET (19:43 GMT)

 

[Singuy]

Lordstown (RIDE -16.3%)

Dow Jones through my brokerage's newsfeed:

Lordstown Motors Amends Annual Filing With Going Concern Notice​

3:43 pm ET June 8, 2021 (Dow Jones)
By Ben Foldy Electric-truck startup Lordstown Motors Corp. disclosed in a new regulatory filing Tuesday that it doesn't have sufficient cash to start commercial production and has doubts about whether it can continue as a going concern through the end of the year. (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 08, 2021 15:43 ET (19:43 G

Should have done an at the market offering instead of purposely tanking your stock. Plenty of reddit peeps and shorts willing to make the donation.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If you have tried to grow a business quickly, you know that growth is messy. When you implement something new, it costs a lot more than a similar but existing process. Case in point: TSLA suffered massively in H1 2019 when it expanded to Europe. The company is still implementing a massive expansion as we speak. All those costs and inefficiencies mask its true earning quality. One needs to dig deeper to back out all these temporary costs and to see progress. That's a huge advantage we hold over the average investors. We know where TSLA has been and where it is now. They don't so they rely on the media and so-call market experts.
Tesla is executing well on both fronts: growth and cost cutting. I believe we hit the bottom on gross margin in Q1 when only 2,000 S&X were sold. Not gonna take long for PE to come crashing down and when that happens, you want to be in the stock. We are not talking news cycle anymore. Nope, can't compete with the memes and the squeezes. We are talking earnings and that only happens 4 times a year. But when that happens, it's going to make it worth the wait.

Exactly, and to piggyback off what you wrote......the percentage of "messiness and inefficiencies" due to growth going forward will be less percentage wise and less obvious appearance-wise due to a number of reasons:

- Fremont is matured as a factory and by Q3/Q4, refreshed S/X production will have matured once again
- Shanghai will have matured as a factory by end of Q4
- Massive economies of scale with big buying power efficiencies with suppliers as Tesla starts ordering parts for Berlin/Austin production. Tesla's pricing power will be on full display when you have parts being shared between 3/Y across Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin/Austin
- Realized new manufacturing methods at Berlin/Austin from learned experience

The result is that while Berlin/Austin will cause some inefficiencies in their initial production ramp, the effects of those inefficiencies will be a fraction of what has hit Tesla's earnings in the past. Fremont(and S/X)/Shanghai getting to a fully matured point as a factory will more than make up for any inefficiencies from Berlin/Austin initial production.

**Sorry last post of the day haha. I got actual work to do

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Oh c'mon! We haven't had a 3 game winning streak since the end of January. Tantalizingly close, but no cigar.

 

[SN_8]

Lordstown (RIDE -16.3%)

Dow Jones through my brokerage's newsfeed:

Lordstown Motors Amends Annual Filing With Going Concern Notice​

3:43 pm ET June 8, 2021 (Dow Jones)
By Ben Foldy Electric-truck startup Lordstown Motors Corp. disclosed in a new regulatory filing Tuesday that it doesn't have sufficient cash to start commercial production and has doubts about whether it can continue as a going concern through the end of the year. (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 08, 2021 15:43 ET (19:43 G

Not a going concern and only down 16%? TSLA drops that much when someone forgets to restock the toilet paper in Fremont.

 

[Nocturnal]

Everything: shoots upward
TSLA: but I am le tired

I can't remember the name of someone I just met, but I can remember early 2k videos/memes perfectly. Friggin kangaroos...

 

[Buckminster]

On the surface that seems like a good argument, but as someone who’s used the SC network for long trips for the last few years - and though I’ve joked about it - V3 is almost too fast. It really is.

‘Normal’ people don’t pee in a bottle to save 3 minutes. That kind of travel is eccentric. ‘Normal’ people like to get out of the car and stretch, sit on a toilet, freshen up, grab some refreshments or sit down like a human being at a table to eat at reasonable intervals. You literally can’t do that in a relaxed fashion on V3 SC Network. On V2, yes. On V1 you do some stalling.

Owning an EV, a Tesla in particular, isn’t just about a differently fueled transportation vehicle. It’s a lifestyle enhancer and in some cases lifestyle changer. If you give yourself an opportunity, you will change how you feel about driving, cars, travel and life.

So, no. I vehemently disagree SC has to be as fast as fueling an ICE vehicle. For around town and short trips there’s no need to ‘fuel’ up in under 5 minutes because you plugged in overnight and your tank is full. You’ll fill up again overnight. For those without home charging, you simply organize your life so that you charge at work, or while you shop etc...

I don't often disagree with you but:

1. In an FSD world
   1. Faster - more profit
      1. Car utilisation
      2. SC utilisation increase by a factor of 3 - significant CAPEX reduction
      3. Struggle to find SC spaces in city centres - planning permission etc.
   2. Convenience
      1. SC can just replace gas pumps
      2. Occasional non road trip charging will be important for those without home charging
2. Another Tesla moat

Now if MM's keep the SP below 600 for the week I'll both be amazed and excited for the pop that follows. Next week is quarterly options expiry I believe, but I'm sure @Lycanthrope will clarify the facts.

It is indeed - have been holding on for 2 years.​

 

[Singuy]

Not a going concern and only down 16%? TSLA drops that much when someone forgets to restock the toilet paper in Fremont.

Pfffffft.

THis is what Apes call a buying opportunity.

Warning of bankruptcy is like music to Ape's ears.

AMC warns bankruptcy is on the table as cash runs low

AMC has agreed to sell as many as 15 million shares of its stock, but equity in the company could soon be worthless if the largest theater chain in the world files for bankruptcy.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Thekiwi]

Exactly, and to piggyback off what you wrote......the percentage of "messiness and inefficiencies" due to growth going forward will be less percentage wise and less obvious due on appearance-wise due to a number of reasons:

- Fremont is matured as a factory and by Q3/Q4, refreshed S/X production will have matured once again
- Shanghai will have matured as a factory by end of Q4
- Massive economies of scale with big buying power efficiencies with suppliers as Tesla starts ordering parts for Berlin/Austin production. Tesla's pricing power will be on full display when you have parts being shared between 3/Y across Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin/Austin
- Realized new manufacturing methods at Berlin/Austin from learned experience

The result is that while Berlin/Austin will cause some inefficiencies in their initial production ramp, the effects of those inefficiencies will be a fraction of what has hit Tesla's earnings in the past. Fremont(and S/X)/Shanghai getting to a fully matured point as a factory will more than make up for any inefficiencies from Berlin/Austin initial production.

**Sorry last post of the day haha. I got actual work to do

You have posted numerous comments about Tesla being vastly undervalued, without mentioning specific long term profit expectations and what you think a fair market cap would be right now. Care to share what you think a fair market cap right now would be for the stock?

 

[UncaNed]

The end of Quarter local China deliveries begin. At the 3:25 mark, you'll see the strong activity loading the car carriers.
Video from Wu WA

Nice video, lots of great cars, but very little actual loading going on, 7 empty trucks mostly just sitting.