Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402370731825143809

I love seeing the windmills in the background too.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is the exact thought going through my mind watching the CT reveal "I stayed up till 11 for THIS???"
And the very next day I made my first post here. The 15 disagrees I got seemed excessive for a perfectly reasonable post.
View attachment 671035

You were so cute back then…

 

[Prunesquallor]

Just had a thought on all the $BTC boomers or $TSLAQ defectors that went and cancelled their cybertruck orders due to their newly discovered 'hate' for Elon.....Wouldn't they have been better off selling their reservation or simply just taking delivery and selling it at a profit if they were one of the 'early' birds? Figure they could have made at least a minimum of $3-$5k if they got in early enough, instead of just cancelling.

Umm, you expect $TSLAQ and $BTC types to figure out smart financial decisions?

Edit: what @Singuy said.

Edit2: what @BlackS said.

 

[henchman24]

Q1 was such a bizarre quarter of absolutely amazing things and not so great things. We got a unique chance to see the earnings power of just the 3/Y due to no S/X (and the 2,000 S/X that were sold were heavily discounted).....and that was with Shanghai just getting started on Y production. So we can expect much better efficiencies there in Q3/Q4.

The execution and efficiency in the company to post the earnings/margins/operating margins that they did while taking a direct 200 million hit due to S/X and dealing with parts/supply issues was flat out amazing. I'd say that execution overshadows the S/X blunder

I think the 3/Y expectation was heavily positive, but naturally the S/X essentially 5 month delay brings echos and parallels to the 3 production hell. IMO I think the market priced in the idea that Tesla had grown out of those sorts of issues, which obviously wasn't the case. It is reasonable to extrapolate those issues and think they may plague Y in Berlin and Austin because as Elon keeps stating... new technology with structural pack, 4680s, and hard to predict. Even more the case on Cybertruck where it is something completely new and different that could have massive issues to start. If those start hitting the 9 and 18 EPS in 22 and 23... taking them down to 6.75 and 14 or less... 600-700 seems pretty reasonable for a price target via that method. 5-6 month delays can have massive impacts in the short term.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You were so cute back then…

Edit: I must admit, I too was a bit appalled with CT that night. Have the Tri-Motor reserved. The wife hates it, but I need to demonstrate the camping potential (she wants to get a full-blown RV ).

 

[goinfraftw]

These are the P/S ratios for various companies in the S&P 500 that have compared to TSLA in some form or manner.

Is TSLA, currently, over-priced or under-priced? Let's say they reach $60B in sales. Last year it was $35.94B, so a 67% increase (and they don't sell anything else new like...I don't know...Dojo, FSD, AI HW Cards/Chipsets, etc.) in 2021. If it's the same P/S ratio, then share price at year end should be $1,117.8 with a nod towards further growth, right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think the 3/Y expectation was heavily positive, but naturally the S/X essentially 5 month delay brings echos and parallels to the 3 production hell. IMO I think the market priced in the idea that Tesla had grown out of those sorts of issues, which obviously wasn't the case. It is reasonable to extrapolate those issues and think they may plague Y in Berlin and Austin because as Elon keeps stating... new technology with structural pack, 4680s, and hard to predict. Even more the case on Cybertruck where it is something completely new and different that could have massive issues to start. If those start hitting the 9 and 18 EPS in 22 and 23... taking them down to 6.75 and 14 or less... 600-700 seems pretty reasonable for a price target via that method. 5-6 month delays can have massive impacts in the short term.

I think the Plaid event on Thursday will offer some clues as to what exactly happened or why it's taken so long. It's actually the thing I'm looking forward to the most to understand if it was an execution thing and where exactly things fell apart in the execution.

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402370731825143809

Strange...I have a sudden urge to buy more TSLA.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Meanwhile, In other EV news:

CEO Steve Burns reiterates:

 

[printf42]

Saw some rumors saying solar roof glass vendor Almaden is going to ramp up production around Jun.(add some time for shipping and GF2 assembling, could mean Q3/Q4 for final product)

Purely rumors, no link no verifiable source.

Did found this share holder meeting Q&A though:

亚玛顿股东会见闻｜特斯拉屋顶是锦上添花，产能军令状才是重中之重_腾讯新闻

view.inews.qq.com

• For now Almaden is the sole supplier for solar roof glass.
• No comment on how many they are shipping now.
• But confirmed limiting factor is installation, COVID caused Tesla to pause installation and in turn purchases, and original contract for 2020 was “a sizable amount”
• Hopefully COVID would get better so project would be on track.
• Production capacity is ready, up to Tesla on when they want to ramp up to 1000 roofs/month.
• Company is not counting solar roof project for 2021 performance, since they don’t have control(over timing).

Again purely rumor from someone who is investing in Almaden.

Just a reminder Tesla still have this dark horse(or dead horse if you are TSLAQ).

 

[ZsoZso]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402370731825143809

So many cars sitting in a parking lot (with no buyers in sight), clearly a huge demand problem!
I bet you in a few weeks Tesla will dump them all into the sea to pretend they have been sold.
We have seen this story play out many times, just ask Mark BS or any other seasoned TSLAQ veterans...

/s

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402370731825143809

So that's the location where Tesla rented to store all those 'unsold exported' cars out of China....Strange that they would go through such lengths to hide their unsold demand problem cars!

 

[Hock1]

Stumbled on this after my regularly scheduled programming.

Naked shorts seem criminal and could be curbed by forcing 24 hour closing on all positions. Liquid enough. If you don't close in 24 hours you lose your license and need to go get another job. [Better than going to jail, which is what should happen.]

I think this causes insane motion on Tesla.

That idea is not going to cure the systemic problem. The systemic problem is this: "naked shorting" can be effected by any market maker and most hedge funds through "sponsored access". These trades (shorting with out borrowing or locating) already have a 2-day requirement to produce the shorted shares (i.e., fake shares). These shares that are not produced in the required time frame, eventually become fails-to-deliver. The brokerages who are in charge of the reporting of these FTDs are very delinquent in honestly reporting these infractions. On top of that and equally important to this is the fact that, with the removal of the uptick rule (established in 1938 by the SEC to protect " investors from manipulative short sellers"), means that these fake shorted shares can be sold on DOWNTICKS! It doesn't take a genius to see that shares, that don't exist and can be shorted on downticks, will control the price of a stock and screw those investors who believe that the market is "fair".

 

[Prunesquallor]

So that's the location where Tesla rented to store all those 'unsold exported' cars out of China....Strange that they would go through such lengths to hide their unsold demand problem cars!

Clever of them to claim this staging area is overseas. No opportunity for the Shorty Air Force™ (whatever happened to them?) to confirm.

 

[CHGolferJim]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402010814618419201

What is the real reason for Guillen’s demotion/departure?

 

[The Accountant]

I think solely relying on forward PE can be misleading, but I'd say right now, arguably Tesla currently should be 200x 2021 projected EPS,125x 2022, and 50x 2023. If the current growth pattern holds, execution is on track (which I think is a legit question with the S/X issues), and as the company matures. So at $5, $9, $18 EPS projected for those years... somewhere between 900 and 1125 is fair current value per EPS IMO. If FSD (subs or in general), growth happens more quickly, energy actually starts adding to the bottom line, etc. etc could change all that. I remain on the side that the biggest question around Tesla isn't Elon's memes, demand, bitcoin, brand, etc etc... it is purely execution. If Tesla can execute and produce 1.5m vehicles in 2022 and 2.75m in 2023... this will all work itself out.

Amazon was at a P/E of 540 in 2015 when they first turned a profit (after a few years of losses).
In 2017 with an EPS of $6.15 they had a multiple of 190.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

What is the real reason for Guillen’s demotion/departure?

I thought he has tried to leave a few times in the past? ended up just getting different roles or taking some time away.
surely you've got to prioritize family or job somewhat in those positions

 

[jerry33]

What is the real reason for Guillen’s demotion/departure?

Well, no one knows the real story. My thought is that back when JG was in charge of all vehicles he wanted out either for a change or to retire. However, he also didn't want to leave Tesla in the lurch, so he took the Semi division while his replacement was ramping up to speed, so that they would still have him to call on if needed. Now that that's done, he left.

 

[henchman24]

Amazon was at a P/E of 540 in 2015 when they first turned a profit (after a few years of losses).
In 2017 with an EPS of $6.15 they had a multiple of 190.

View attachment 671057

Actual vs being discounted back… not a direct comparison. But I’d hope Tesla can hold 75-100 through 2024. That would mean the company is still growing rapidly.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, exactly but Munro will take awhile. So in the interim, for anyone still wondering, watch Jordan Giesige's excellent hour long wrap up video at the Limiting Factor that he posted yesterday. It summarizes the 18 months of in-depth research he's done pre-/post battery day. It will a) pump you up because it's mind blowing what Tesla's doing once you're down in the weeds as far as he goes and b) gives a dose of reality for just how hard and time consuming each step in the process is. The last 30 minutes of the video are especially useful as he works through a very detailed timeline analysis for when 4680s could come online, which factories will get them, and which vehicles they'll go into. Granted, it get's to be speculative at that point but his speculations are well informed and logical and would put to rest much of the incessant & poorly informed speculations here.

Yes, excellent video...

My main takeaway is that Tesla will be cell constrained until possibly 2025, with raw materials being the limiting factor 2024-2025.

Tesla is doing something about additional raw materials:-

Tesla to buy more than $1 bln of Australian battery minerals a year

Tesla (TSLA.O) said it expects to spend more than $1 billion a year on battery raw materials from Australia given the country's reliable mining industry and responsible production practices.

www.reuters.com

Unlike many, I'm reasonably optimistic Tesla's Lithium Clay extraction process can arrive in time to make a difference (assuming it is needed).

Provided Tesla could source a shovel and a few buckets, they may have the lab process working...
I see clay mining as similar, just using earth moving equipment and trucks to move it to an onsite processing facility powered by solar panels.

In terms of range there are 3 possible solutions:-

1. Throw more batteries at the problem (requires raw materials, and processing).
2. Faster charging.
3. More efficiency, including higher energy density...

Tesla can throw more batteries at the problem after 2025.

Faster charging is progressive, as more silicon is added, and the capabilities of charging stations are upgraded.

Efficiency is also progressive, and it makes the most economic sense to optimise efficiency first, before throwing more batteries at the problem..

That was the opaque point I was making about Plaid Drive yesterday, yes it will output more power, but it may also be more efficient...

Regardless, I think there is some clever secret sauce in Plaid Drive, and perhaps some clever not so secret sauce in the battery.

This is one additional reason to do Halo models, new technologies which may initially be expensive, can be trailed and refined in those models before possibly being modified for wider fleet adoption.

So short term I hope to see more efficiency, and fewer batteries...