Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

To avoid the back and forth on my “close as at it is to gas prices” comment, here’s my math:

• Tesla LR M3, at 80 MPH gets around 250 miles per 75 kWh tank. 75 x $0.42 = $31.50. $31.50 / 250 miles = $0.126/mi
• ICE, at 80 MPH gets around 450 miles per 18 gal tank. 18 x $4.00 = $72.00. $72.00 / 450 miles = $0.16/mi
• Almost 80% of the price of gas….

Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?

No, I'm not concerned. Tesla should be able to beat the average commercial rate and still sell electricity at a profit to the semi customers.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm not sure if a link to these charts was posted,,, they are very informative.

 

[MXWing]

It would eat all my covered calls but another 20 percent daily run up out of nowhere would be fantastic.

Happened less than two months ago. Anyone recollect why?

 

[Jack6591]

FUD is directly proportional to Tesla‘s success.

U.S. safety agency probes 10 Tesla crash deaths since 2016

U.S. auto safety regulators said on Thursday they have opened 30 investigations into Tesla (TSLA.O) crashes involving 10 deaths since 2016 where advanced driver assistance systems were suspected of use.

www.reuters.com

Yes, I believe Tesla should informationally advertise.

 

[StealthP3D]

FUD is directly proportional to Tesla‘s success.

U.S. safety agency probes 10 Tesla crash deaths since 2016

U.S. auto safety regulators said on Thursday they have opened 30 investigations into Tesla (TSLA.O) crashes involving 10 deaths since 2016 where advanced driver assistance systems were suspected of use.

www.reuters.com

Yes, I believe Tesla should informationally advertise.

Interesting FUD article. Does anyone else think the math looks a little funny here?

The spreadsheet also notes NHTSA has opened six other investigations into six other crashes involving driver assistance systems, including two involving Cadillac vehicles in which there were no reported injuries.

The other four include two involved a 2012 Lexus RX450H and 2017 Navya Arma in which there were no reported injuries.

The remaining two involved 2017 Volvo XC90 vehicles, including an Uber Technologies self-driving test vehicle that struck and killed a woman in Arizona in 2018.

2 + 4 + 2 = 6

Hmmm...OK.

 

[RobStark]

Robotaxi service seems like a "winner takes most" market (Cathie Wood's phrase).

Elon responded to Cathie directly and said "winner takes a quarter.....manufacturing is hard."

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon responded to Cathie directly and said "winner takes a quarter.....manufacturing is hard."

That will depend on how fast the 2nd and 3rd players reach autonomy. If Tesla has a 2 year lead in autonomy then maybe they get a quarter but if Tesla has an 8 year lead I'd expect them to get more than a quarter.

While no other manufacturers are recording data at Tesla's level I don't know how there could be many fast followers.

 

[hobbes]

I'm not sure they read their own article before making that headline.

In the article:


...nothing about stopping building fossil cars.

Only that they would stop introducing them. As in launching new models.

My interpretation is that they can still build fossil car models introduced in 2025 several years later.

Trying to read the German source I come to the same conclusion. Audi will stop launcing new fossil fuel models by 2026. And a few years later they will only launch EVs.

Perhaps @avoigt is a better interpreter of German language than I am and could clarify?

Source: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/audi-verbrenner-elektromobilitaet-1.5325505?reduced=true

You´re right. The subitle reads:

Von 2026 an will die VW-Tochter keine neuen Verbrenner mehr herausbringen - als erster Hersteller in Deutschland. Ein paar Jahre später soll es dann nur noch E-Autos geben.

Starting in 2026 the VW subsidiary won´t launch new ICE cars any more - as first manufacturer in Germany. A few years later there will only be electric cars.

(Translation mine)

Unfortunately I can´t read the rest of the article as it is behind a paywall, but this is quite clear.

 

[hobbes]

Here's the site plan that Tobias Lindh posted with my English translation courtesy of Google Translate:

View attachment 674618

Almost perfect job by google, few remarks:

• Fertigung translates to manufacturing, so Fertigung Batteriepack is Battery Pack Manufacturing
• Sickerbecken translates to infiltration basin
• Löschwasserrückhaltebecken is specifically a firefighting water retention basin

 

[Buckminster]

Elon the 2nd. I've worked it out.

Elon cloned himself a year after Dolly the sheep was born (1996!). His clone is now 24 and has been put in charge of the Twitter account before being sent to Mars. Tweet style makes more sense now huh...

 

[Wicket]

Maybe Elon the 2nd refers to having to pass Berlin yet again through approval, or to the model y that launches there being the 2nd major revision.

Separately given how much is hanging on 4680 for early output at Austin and Berlin I really wish I had a good sense of progress at Kato because knowing Elon he tends to cover up problems while reiterating the same deadlines.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla cut the battery size of the Model S from 104 to 100 kWh

Tesla has reduced the energy capacity of the battery pack in the new Model S

Tesla has confirmed that it has reduced the energy capacity of the new battery pack in the new Model S....

electrek.co

This must surely back up the notion that the car continues to use 18650, and hasn't graduated up to something newer.

(Yes there have been some pretty authoritative statements on the matter already)

It amazes me to think about the improvements that loom on the horizon for Model S/X - when its performance is now so incredible:

* front casting piece
* rear casting piece
* switch to 4680 cells
* structured pack

These improvements will all allow Tesla to "dial in" the exact performance improvements they want - acceleration, range, and profitability. Tesla might upgrade the range of the car a bit more, keep the acceleration the same, but make the car lighter, for better handling+range again, and a cheaper cost of construction. Will we see a reduction in retail price or just take more profit per vehicle? It's Tesla's choice... and possible they will add FSD as standard and keep the base price of the car the same at $79,900.

(While I'm here... it's my opinion that FSD will become standard on all Tesla vehicles at some point)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think we will eventually see 4680 LFP cells, either made by Tesla or a supplier.

This info is from a well-known source on twitter (Jun 04), but relevant:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "Rumor: new CATL Shanghai factory to use roadrunner production system for 4680, fully automated." / Twitter

Futher upthread, the OP discusses the new planned CATL bty plant in Shanghai as the likely source for Model 2 batteries.

I agree. I expect ~2 yrs to production. Doing site-prep right now on the land immediately South of Giga Shanghai, then a year for construction. I also expect the plant to include a cathode production facility, and localized production for any other essential components for the bty pack.

Oh, did I mention 2M Models 2 per year production rate? Yeah, 4 phases of 500K each (20GWh/phase, 4 bty lines). Up and running at full capacity in 3-4 yrs (depends if they build factories in parallel, or all at once). But, China...

Cheers!

 

[15Peter20]

This must surely back up the notion that the car continues to use 18650, and hasn't graduated up to something newer.

(Yes there have been some pretty authoritative statements on the matter already)

It amazes me to think about the improvements that loom on the horizon for Model S/X - when its performance is now so incredible:

* front casting piece
* rear casting piece
* switch to 4680 cells
* structured pack

These improvements will all allow Tesla to "dial in" the exact performance improvements they want - acceleration, range, and profitability. Tesla might upgrade the range of the car a bit more, keep the acceleration the same, but make the car lighter, for better handling+range again, and a cheaper cost of construction. Will we see a reduction in retail price or just take more profit per vehicle? It's Tesla's choice... and possible they will add FSD as standard and keep the base price of the car the same at $79,900.

(While I'm here... it's my opinion that FSD will become standard on all Tesla vehicles at some point)

Agree. FSD may, in fact should, become mandatory, at least in some jurisdictions, once it has proven itself.

 

[Buckminster]

Agree. FSD may, in fact should, become mandatory, at least in some jurisdictions, once it has proven itself.

This all assumes that Tesla will be selling vehicles. That would be a financial mistake, a safety mistake and a climate control mistake.

Having said that Elon may not want to turn Tesla into a monopoly.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Here's the google translation of the cell manufacturing details from the Berlin development application.

A couple of interesting points:

• The substrate (reads like it's the adhesive in the DBE process) is delivered in containers. @gabeincal maybe something to look out for at Kato Rd.
• The Formation process takes 10 days - which is longer than I knew (edit: The Limiting Factor said 10 days is quite short but not much info available in a reply to the below tweet). Batches of cells presumably take a couple of weeks from start to finish before they can go into the battery pack and some more time before the pack goes into the vehicle. So possibly 3-4 weeks of wip to be accounted for as the business scales up Tesla made batteries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405769786793947138

 

[RobStark]

This all assumes that Tesla will be selling vehicles. That would be a financial mistake, a safety mistake and a climate control mistake.

Having said that Elon may not want to turn Tesla into a monopoly.

Telling Tesla customers and aspiring Tesla customers they can't have their own cars would be a mistake.

And giving all that business to competitors.

Governments will not allow Tesla to become a monopoly even if Elon wanted one.

 

[NicoV]

Here's the google translation of the cell manufacturing details from the Berlin development application.

A couple of interesting points:

• The substrate (reads like it's the adhesive in the DBE process) is delivered in containers. @gabeincal maybe something to look out for at Kato Rd.
• The Formation process takes 10 days - which is longer than I knew (edit: The Limiting Factor said 10 days is quite short but not much info available in a reply to the below tweet). Batches of cells presumably take a couple of weeks from start to finish before they can go into the battery pack and some more time before the pack goes into the vehicle. So possibly 3-4 weeks of wip to be accounted for as the business scales up Tesla made batteries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405769786793947138

So this is confirmation that Tesla uses a dry process? No mention of solvents and recuperation of solvents anymore.
That should give confidence that the Roadrunner battery production system is good enough for volume production.

 

[15Peter20]

This all assumes that Tesla will be selling vehicles. That would be a financial mistake, a safety mistake and a climate control mistake.

Having said that Elon may not want to turn Tesla into a monopoly.

Easy enough to license FSD, similar to, but far for sophisticated than, the many licensed passive and active safety systems currently in vehicles. Nice source of additional revenue.

 

[Drezil]

So this is confirmation that Tesla uses a dry process? No mention of solvents and recuperation of solvents anymore.
That should give confidence that the Roadrunner battery production system is good enough for volume production.

Yes. It es explicitly stated that they use a powder and no wet process.