Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I don't think LG or CATL are sleeping...just that they don't have the same mission as tesla and frankly if I were running LG or CATL I would want to limit Tesla to keep it from being too much of my sales growth story. So, I expect LG and CATL to actually prioritize other manufactures when possible as long as there is a shortage in supply. Just logical. Therefore, Tesla needs to run faster.

I think we agree that battery plant capacity and innovation in battery use ( software, tuning, vehicle performance, octavalve, etc) are the keys to succeeding in the mission. And making a buck

Why would LG/CATL not work with Tesla? They make the most money with Tesla because they have volume advantage. Battery production is very capex intensive and just now Panasonic is finally making a small profit.

 

[Curt Renz]

I think, as currently worded, your poll misses the point. NYC is trying to solve a congestion issue (aka too many cars on the road). Perhaps the question should be, "Shouldn't NYC revoke the taxi license of current ICE vehicle taxi operators instead of forcing an incoming competitor to buy them out?"

Good point. Fair enough. I've removed the poll. However, underlying this matter appears to be the influence of the New York Taxi Workers Alliance. There was an exemption for electric cars until the announcement of the hastily called meeting. The excuse regarding the number of cars on NYC roads appears to fit in with what's typically argued before regulators by "rent seeking landlords of the status quo".

 

[printf42]

Fresh rumors from the mill:
Tesla solar roof glass vendor Almaden’s SP jumped up 10% yesterday, rumored reasons including solar roof ramping to ~500 set/month week in July from ~50-60 currently.

$亚玛顿(SZ002623)$ 昨日涨停逻辑：增发询价或已完成；保障公司供应的大股东第三座玻璃原片窑炉即将点火； 特斯拉... - 雪球

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xueqiu.com

 

[Beltsbear]

Fresh rumors from the mill:
Tesla solar roof glass vendor Almaden’s SP jumped up 10% yesterday, rumored reasons including solar roof ramping to ~500 set/month in July from ~50-60 currently.

$亚玛顿(SZ002623)$ 昨日涨停逻辑：增发询价或已完成；保障公司供应的大股东第三座玻璃原片窑炉即将点火； 特斯拉... - 雪球

$äºçé¡¿(SZ002623)$ æ¨æ¥æ¶¨åé»è¾ï¼å¢å询价æå·²å®æï¼ä¿éå¬å¸ä¾åºç大è¡ä¸ç¬¬ä¸åº§ç»çåççªçå³å°ç¹ç«ï¼ ç¹æ¯æ 太é³è½å±é¡¶ç¦ç7æ份起å°ä»åæ¥çæ¯å¨äºååå¥è·åå°500å¥ï¼åæ¶ç¹æ¯æå³å°å¼æä¸å½å¤ªé³è½å±é¡¶å¸åºï¼ç¡æä»·æ ¼æ¢æ¶¨ï¼ä¸æ¸¸å¤èï¼åä¼ç»çä»·æ ¼ä¼ç¨³ï¼å¤§è¡ä¸åççªçææ以é大èµäº§éç»...

xueqiu.com

What does that mean ”set”? Please don’t tell me they are doing just 50 roofs a month now. It has to be something else?

 

[nativewolf]

Honda pledges to phase out ICE vehicle production by 2040.

Honda Goes All In on Electric in Stark Contrast to Toyota

Honda Motor Co. has become the first of Japan’s automakers to state publicly it will phase out sales of gasoline-powered cars completely, setting 2040 as the goal and giving newly minted Chief Executive Officer Toshihiro Mibe a once-in-a-career chance to put his stamp on a firm that can trace...

www.bloomberg.com

View attachment 676399

Well well well welll...I will eat some crow (ok...chicken). Good on the Honda team, the founder was a revolutionary in Japan and has a great life story if you need some feel good history. Innovation and pursuit of excellence, damn the bureaucracy. So so happy to see this. No idea if too late or not but ..so happy for Mr. Honda. Thanks for posting @Cherry Wine

 

[nativewolf]

Why would LG/CATL not work with Tesla? They make the most money with Tesla because they have volume advantage. Battery production is very capex intensive and just now Panasonic is finally making a small profit.

Great example. Panasonic is finally making a profit. Are they involved with Berlin and Austin? There is huge huge risk to LG and CATL to be heavily dependent on any one buyer. For example..if apple ditches Foxcon, well Fox would crash. When Apple switched to Intel...Motorolla tanked. Today every finance agreement I see looks heavily at you when you have 1 client responsible for too much of your revenue. Vendors know this and try to diversify. S&P Moodys etc would place lower ratings on corporate bonds if they felt the entity was exposed. With Tesla this is a huge risk because Tesla has shown that they are cannibalizing vendors. They buy product, they learn, the start internalizing, they drop vendor. This has happened several times so it is a risk.

LG and CATL will be dealing very carefully with Tesla, LG in particular is savvy in managing risk. CATL could become exposed but the commie govt would bail them out so I expect that they over commit and get burned. They can always sell excess capacity in 5 years back into China somewhere.

 

[nativewolf]

Today had to reaffirm my investment thesis. Remember, competition is here now, ID4, MachE... so I test drove both. I knew what to expect from the ID4 based on previous reviews, but I am surprised how much more I expected of the MachE. Reports of 'fun to drive, corners great, better than Tesla' and 'switch to unbridled mode and its super aggressive' do not at all match my experience. I drove the AWD with the larger battery. Where the Tesla feels like a slingshot, where you have the unfair advantage over all the other cars because of the immediacy of the control, the MachE just drives like a car. And when cornering, tires are screeching and it feels much more hesitant than the smooth turn on a dime of both our 2018 Model 3 RWD as well as the 2016 Model X90D. I can clearly say, both are drastically more fun to drive than the 2021 MachE I drove today. Also where my X90D with the limited fast charging proposed a 7 hour trip to Universal Studios from SF, the MachE came up with a 10 hour itinerary, and did not easily volunteer what that would look like.

Getting back into the Tesla after test driving the VW ID4 felt like being released from prison, which wasn't as bad when coming back from the MachE. So the MachE is more fun to drive and has less lag than the ID4. But still has lag. Getting back into the X and driving off made me giddy and pumped up, and I uttered excited profanities, that moderators here would ban me for, on the first opportunity to feel the slingshot difference.

Time to accumulate more TSLA.

Thanks for the frontline report. About what I expected and I'm excited for Ford that they did better than VW.

 

[Singuy]

Great example. Panasonic is finally making a profit. Are they involved with Berlin and Austin? There is huge huge risk to LG and CATL to be heavily dependent on any one buyer. For example..if apple ditches Foxcon, well Fox would crash. When Apple switched to Intel...Motorolla tanked. Today every finance agreement I see looks heavily at you when you have 1 client responsible for too much of your revenue. Vendors know this and try to diversify. S&P Moodys etc would place lower ratings on corporate bonds if they felt the entity was exposed. With Tesla this is a huge risk because Tesla has shown that they are cannibalizing vendors. They buy product, they learn, the start internalizing, they drop vendor. This has happened several times so it is a risk.

LG and CATL will be dealing very carefully with Tesla, LG in particular is savvy in managing risk. CATL could become exposed but the commie govt would bail them out so I expect that they over commit and get burned. They can always sell excess capacity in 5 years back into China somewhere.

Except the limited step is raw materials. So Tesla wouldn't drop anyone because they want all the batteries the world can supply forever. Tesla would rather NOT be in the battery business because they specialize in making money by utilizing the batteries, not making them. Margins are in the packaging (into cars, into a powerwall) etc etc. Ever seen gourmet popcorn? It's just popcorn repackaged into a fancy tin box so they can charge 10 dollars for 10 cents worth of popcorn. Battery production is like growing corn. Tesla would rather not be in the growing corn business(but they have to). They want to charge people high margins for their completed products instead and have the rest of the world grow corn..but they are not growing them fast enough.

 

[InTheShadows]

Wow. This plaid is absolutely amazing.

I hope he can keep it in the road and set a new record. This will be pretty big publicity IMO when he sets the record.

 

[Doit]

What does that mean ”set”? Please don’t tell me they are doing just 50 roofs a month now. It has to be something else?

per week per @printf42 quoted text: 50-60 solar roofs/week >> 500 roofs/week. Also, it mentioned that Tesla starts to explore solar roof market in China.

Edit:
Reread and it did say "sets" instead of "roofs." I'm quite confused by this post from Xueqiu: my impression is that Giga New York is making solar roofs. Also I remotely remember that Tesla is making ~2,000 roofs (1,000/week according to Tesla's tweet, Mar, 2020) per week. So who's making what? Both? Or more likely Almaden produce and supply "pre-tiles" to Giga New York to assemble the final product?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239024200708308999

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1407383384498790407

 

[Singuy]

Wow. This plaid is absolutely amazing.

I hope he can keep it in the road and set a new record. This will be pretty big publicity IMO when he sets the record.

Looking at the Model 3 Performance run, the Plaid is another class. It was hard for the Model 3 to hit 110mph while the Plaid shoots up to 136 mph before Randy hit the brakes. Not to mention the time it took plaid from 100-136 was nothing, while in the MOdel 3, the car was pretty slow at increasing speed past 100mph even with pedal fully pressed.

 

[MP3Mike]

Looking at the Model 3 Performance run, the Plaid is another class. It was hard for the Model 3 to hit 110mph while the Plaid shoots up to 136 mph before Randy hit the brakes. Not to mention the time it took plaid from 100-136 was nothing, while in the MOdel 3, the car was pretty slow at increasing speed past 100mph even with pedal fully pressed.

You can't compare it to his Model 3 run last year, because the car didn't get fully repaired after he wrecked it and was running with only about 50% power.

 

[ZeApelido]

I just can't quite put my finger on where I've seen that UI style before...

A Rivian employee's neighbor captured one of the first (blurry) glimpses of R1T's UI and controls

A neighbor of a Rivian employee was able to go for a spin in an R1T and capture some footage of the User Interface (UI) and other controls.

electrek.co

 

[Big Time]

Tesla MIC Model 3/Model Y May insured units
Beijing: 594 / 1.1K
Shanghai: 913 / 1,735
Guangzhou: 400 / 600
Shenzhen: 900 / 1.1K
Hangzhou: 800 / 1K
(CATARC via ZHU Yulong)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, Potter finds it clearly inconceivable that Tesla keeps growing at 50% per year, since that would mean Tesla will have 100% marketshare in 2040.
I wouldn’t mind 100% in 2040, but realistically some vendor should be successful in some niche.

Rob Maurer (Tesla Daily) released a review today of the Note:

Tesla “Still The Best” Says Piper Sandler + Morgan Stanley TSLA Note, Bitcoin Impairment

Tesla Highlights:

• 4.5M cars by 2025
  • inline with 50% CAGR
  • amnts to 1.5M cars per continent
  • easy to achieve w. just the 3/Y line
• 9.1M cars by 2030
  • inexplicable decrease in CAGR to 14.8%
  • Magic! prediciton matches NASDAQ historical growth exactly
  • Does not mention the $25K car, or the 2x volume it will create
  • that's 13.5M cars, and it's more likely by 2026
• 8.6m cars by 2040
  • definately on drugs now
  • sees boogey man behind the China wall
  • fails to explain how other automakers even stay in business
  • competition is NOT coming; author plans to be retired b4 being accoutable

IMO. Best part of making a 20-yr forcast? Nobody will even remember the short-term errors.

 

[insaneoctane]

Looking at the Model 3 Performance run, the Plaid is another class. It was hard for the Model 3 to hit 110mph while the Plaid shoots up to 136 mph before Randy hit the brakes. Not to mention the time it took plaid from 100-136 was nothing, while in the MOdel 3, the car was pretty slow at increasing speed past 100mph even with pedal fully pressed.

Wow. You're right. Watching them back to back, the Plaid adds speed in triple digits effortlessly. It's amazing to watch. Watch the TM3 first, pay attention to the speedometer, the speeds and rate of change.... especially approaching and beyond 100 mph. Watch for 2 or 3 minutes, then watch Plaid. Just wow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I just can't quite put my finger on where I've seen that UI style before...

A Rivian employee's neighbor captured one of the first (blurry) glimpses of R1T's UI and controls

A neighbor of a Rivian employee was able to go for a spin in an R1T and capture some footage of the User Interface (UI) and other controls.

electrek.co

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...

 

[AimStellar]

 

[Criscmt]

Very high volume in the After-hrs session yesterday (Jun 21, 2021), about 6.5% of the intraday volume:

After-Hours Volume	1,579,693

With no especial news after-hours (and no significant SP movement), this can likely be attributed to the S&P 500 quarterly Rebalancing.

The internal rules for most passive Index funds require that their share holdings be adjusted within +/- 3 to 5 days of the Rebalancing date, which was Fri, Jun 18, 2021.

If so, it's good to see this event passing without the dramatic SP swings seen at the S&P 500 addition in Dec 2020.

Cheers!

Do you mind sharing why lack of price movement is particularly a good thing?
Doesn't this mean, there are sellers for this volume of shares at the current price, which is below the S&P inclusion price?