Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

View attachment 679317

Tesla is being attacked by rivals and now its stock price is at risk: UBS

Down goes Tesla's stock price? UBS says maybe.

finance.yahoo.com

TL: DR

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If I was a smart guy and used twitter I would program a bot to respond to all these "competition is coming" analysts reports with one question.

Where are the batteries coming from?

Thank you 2damoon

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, well, well…

Tesla Model 3 Regains CR Top Pick Status and IIHS Safety Award - Consumer Reports

The Tesla Model 3 regains its status as a Consumer Reports Top Pick and its IIHS Safety Award. New IIHS testing shows that Tesla’s new camera-based system provides effective automatic emergency braking.

www.consumerreports.org

 

[2daMoon]

If I was a smart guy and used twitter I would program a bot to respond to all these "competition is coming" analysts reports with one question.

Were are the batteries coming from?

If you were a very smart guy, you would find an "h" on the Wheel of Fortune and insert it as appropriate before your edit privileges expire.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If you were a very smart guy, you would find an "h" on the Wheel of Fortune and insert it as appropriate before your edit privileges expire.

And they say I start drinking early......

 

[Unpilot]

If you were a very smart guy, you would find an "h" on the Wheel of Fortune and insert it as appropriate before your edit privileges expire.

Of course I could say posting from my phone...spell correct...blah blah blah...but the first line in original post sums it up.

 

[InDaClub]

Upgrading from a model 3 to a YP. Delivery in 6 to 10 weeks. Bullish AF. Here's to the FUD .

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this morning: German court rejects injunction against Tesla factory permits in Germany

Excerpt:

A court in Germany rejected on Tuesday an injunction brought by two environmental groups against provisional building permits issued by the state of Brandenburg for Tesla’s planned factory in Gruenheide near Berlin.

The testing of equipment, which is time-limited, may continue by Tesla, ruled the court in Frankfurt an der Oder, in the state of Brandenburg.

 

[thx1139]

If I was a smart guy and used twitter I would program a bot to respond to all these "competition is coming" analysts reports with one question.

Where are the batteries coming from?

Thank you 2damoon

I also ask what competitor will hit 100K sales of 1 vehicle in 1 year? Are any of them planning to do that in 2021? How about 2022?

 

[printf42]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1409934915408478213

IIHS completed testing of pure vision without radar, model 3 gains(back) Top Safety Pick +

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I also ask what competitor will hit 100K sales of 1 vehicle in 1 year? Are any of them planning to do that in 2021? How about 2022?

2028 maybe....2040 definitely.....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1409934915408478213

IIHS completed testing of pure vision without radar, model 3 gains(back) Top Safety Pick +

Explains why SP is suppressed today.....oh wait...maybe its the FUD from UBS.....eh.....Friday can't come soon enough!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Well, well, well…

Tesla Model 3 Regains CR Top Pick Status and IIHS Safety Award - Consumer Reports

The Tesla Model 3 regains its status as a Consumer Reports Top Pick and its IIHS Safety Award. New IIHS testing shows that Tesla’s new camera-based system provides effective automatic emergency braking.

www.consumerreports.org

Well, well, well… where are the headlines on this news?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, well, well… where are the headlines on this news?

It's only accessible on TMC and Twitter....

 

[Curt Renz]

Well, well, well… where are the headlines on this news?

You have to pay to play. Tesla does not advertise. Advertising revenue is the lifeblood of the media.

Of course the lack of a Tesla PR department is unhelpful.

 

[Criscmt]

It's not possible to determine how accurate they are because Tesla does not break out deliveries by factory.
However, when you compare the production from GASGOO in Q1 to the deliveries from CPCA in Q1, they are close.
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We do see an inventory build in Jan & Feb which was delivered locally in Mar.
However, I've been assuming that Tesla_China_Analyst on Twitter is correct about the 25k in June as he has been relatively accurate in the past. But the numbers really don't work. Let's assume that Tesla took down production to 30k in June. Then we would have 13k in Inventory as per the table below (amounts in yellow estimates).
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If production numbers are correct, then we should see about 35k delivered in June (not 25K) unless they are on ships in transit but I have not seen reports of this.

If we look at the inventory build up in the first and second months of Q1 and Q2, there seems to be correlation.
This makes me lean more towards your view of 35K delivered in June, or there should be 10k exports in June.
I give very low likelihood to the later case (of 10k exports).

 

[Criscmt]

Q2 P&D: Reading tea leaves from @elonmusk Twitter
I am expecting at least 206K production, and some chance of 220K
Thesis: "Elon, the 2nd" was removed from Twitter Bio on 06/20

 

[Prunesquallor]

10 minutes until Transporter-2 launch.

 

[Todd Burch]

Just looked at volume for the day. Wow, very paltry!

 

[Tronguy]

Well, well, well…

Tesla Model 3 Regains CR Top Pick Status and IIHS Safety Award - Consumer Reports

The Tesla Model 3 regains its status as a Consumer Reports Top Pick and its IIHS Safety Award. New IIHS testing shows that Tesla’s new camera-based system provides effective automatic emergency braking.

www.consumerreports.org

Long time lurker, here.
And this particular, now-you-see-it-now-you-don't from CU irks me. In the linked article the blogger from CU states that cars have lost and regained their Top Pick status before, but, himself, points out that this has happened between model years, when traditional ICE manufacturers make their design changes. Which, as we all know, are not retrospective to the previous model years.
Further: CU is supposed to be a data-driven organization. You'd think that all their screaming about how there'd be no radar in the new model 3's and Y's, they'd at least go out and check to see if the car would do emergency braking and all that. They have the capability of doing this testing - so why didn't they?
Irritating.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

UBS obviously hasn't gone to plaid yet.

I assume it's not just me that a UBS downgrade = buy TSLA?
seems like ~2 weeks ago lots of 'newish' FUD started coming on strong. maybe starting with China vehicle #'s, maybe it a was demand story ?

While we won’t be able to know exact numbers, we know that Fremont can’t expand 3/Y production that much from one quarter to the next. So if P/D comes in higher than 210k, we easily can say the CPCA numbers have been wrong

What is the Production Capacity estimate at Freemont with the castings? Are batteries the limit, assembly, or chips? something else?