Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

A big plate with holes in it for the 4680 batteries, that will result in quite a bit of extra material and weight.

I don't think it's a big plate with holes, I think that's structural adhesive around empty cell casings.

 

[kbM3]

Would you consider auto-making capital intensive? OK, how about Ford Motor Company?

In 1904 Ford Motor Company produced 1,708 cars which, by 2016, had risen to over 500,000 cars for a compound annual growth rate of over 60% over a 12 year period. Over that same period, $10,000 worth of stock appreciated to $35 million for a compound annual growth rate of 97%. This does not include the $6.6 million in dividends that $10K in stock returned over the same period.

If we remove 1904 and 1905, years in which there was no production growth, the compound annual production growth rate 1906-1916 (1,695 cars to over 500,000 cars) was 77% compounded over the 10 years.

Ironically, in 1916, when Henry Ford announced he was ending payment of the lavish special dividends in order to expand existing factories and build new ones to increase production, shareholders sued to prevent it and retain the profits in the form of shareholder special dividends (in addition to the regular dividends which were not curtailed). Ford lost the lawsuit and was ordered to distribute $19 million additional dollars to shareholders in the form a special dividend. However, Henry Ford, as the largest shareholder, received $11 of the $19 million. He and his sons also threatened to step down (quit) and start their own, competing car company which frightened the shareholders as they could not imagine a Ford Motor Company without Henry Ford.

He followed this up by offering to personally buyout the other more short-sighted shareholders and his offer was sufficient for him to regain control of his company and use the profits to continue expanding.

Not as capital intensive as auto making today. Tesla has also grown over 50% CAGR over that same length of time, but rather than slowing down, they are accelerating this year and next.

However, I did say no one had done it, so I will accept this as a proof my statement was inaccurate. Possibly it has also been done during wartime.

i believe when I made the claim prior times I added the qualifier “no company anywhere near Tesla’s current size” has managed consistent 50% growth. But I forgot to add that this time..

 

[Criscmt]

In the US for Q3:
Model Y Long Range is sold out.
Model 3 Long Range will be sold out in about a week.
Price increases didn't slow anything down.

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So, those green candles won't be coming from Q2 Earnings? (/jk, no rush)

I have seen you alluding to Fremont capacity expansion before, once referring to a clip in @gabeincal video.
Going by this demand, looks like fast Fremont capacity expansion will be very profitable step. But, I guess, there isn't enough room to practically expand significantly?
What's your estimate on capacity improvement in Fremont for Q3 Production.

 

[Mr X]

Based on the stampings of the pack in the pic, it clearly looks like the new S pack to me


4680 hype is real but don't think that's it

 

[Todd Burch]

Based on the stampings of the pack in the pic, it clearly looks like the new S pack to me


4680 hype is real but don't think that's it

If it’s not 4680, this would be the first time Bill Wright would have been wrong. My money’s on him.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

people not demanding Teslas waiting in line to buy a Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1413965648049307649

The tweet itself kind of brings to mind a question: Why would you line up at a store to buy an iPhone instead of just ordering it online? I guess I don't get "line-up culture" or whatever that would be called. At least with a Tesla, you go to the store to see the colors of the car in person and take a test drive and ask an employee questions about configuring your options. But you don't need any of that for an iPhone, it's just a phone and you order it if you want it.

 

[FireMedic]

The tweet itself kind of brings to mind a question: Why would you line up at a store to buy an iPhone instead of just ordering it online? I guess I don't get "line-up culture" or whatever that would be called. At least with a Tesla, you go to the store to see the colors of the car in person and take a test drive and ask an employee questions about configuring your options. But you don't need any of that for an iPhone, it's just a phone and you order it if you want it.

Ray mentioned (later in the comments) that the website was unable to meet demand/ also possibly the SRY was not added to their configurator yet.

Also, it’s a fun place to take the family. I ordered both of my Teslas in a store even though online was already an option. Both times I had my kids with me and they thoroughly enjoyed the experience of sitting in futuristic cars and pressing buttons!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Why would you line up at a store to buy an iPhone instead of just ordering it online

because they want one right away instead of waiting for it to ship. First on their block kind of thing.

 

[Jack6591]

In this world, you aren't truly free unless you are very rich. I would estimate only people worth a minimum of $100 million are truly free.

I'm not joking, in case you didn't figure out. There is no /s here. That's the state of our world today.

Some years back my wife and I took a vacation to Maui. Upon landing we rented a convertible Mustang and headed to the beach at Kihei. In a complete state of distraction, I locked the car keys into the trunk. My wife immediately volunteered to walk over to hotel and call Hertz. Feeling incredibly stupid, I stayed behind and attempted to get the keys out of the trunk.

Making a fool of myself trying to break into this rental car, I was approached by a homeless fellow. Looking completely bewildered he said the following, “You’re trapped in paradise, get your mind around that.”

He went on to explain, that he had flown to Hawaii, the summer after graduating from High School, and had spent twenty years sleeping on the beach and surfing.

One man’s freedom…

 

[Mengy]

The tweet itself kind of brings to mind a question: Why would you line up at a store to buy an iPhone instead of just ordering it online?

I thought there were reports of the China website crashing due to traffic for people trying to order? Might explain why they went in person.

 

[2daMoon]

I don't think it's a big plate with holes, I think that's structural adhesive around empty cell casings.

IIRC, when the structural battery pack was described the idea was to place the 4680s in a useful pattern and fill the void around them with epoxy. No mention of a plate to hold the batteries. The goal is to add strength and reduce weight.

Seems like there may even have been mention of the epoxy being easily dissolved for battery recycling at end of life.

 

[Carl Raymond]

If it’s not 4680, this would be the first time Bill Wright would have been wrong. My money’s on him.

This Kyan guy (link below) says Bill is wrong. He’s rude, crude and totally unlikable, but I reluctantly feel he may be accurate. It does not make any sense to make a drop-in non-structural 4680 model S pack. Why go to all that trouble for a half way measure.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kyantweets/with_replies

 

[EVWatcher]

This Kyan guy (link below) says Bill is wrong. He’s rude, crude and totally unlikable, but I reluctantly feel he may be accurate. It does not make any sense to make a drop-in non-structural 4680 model S pack. Why go to all that trouble for a half way measure.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kyantweets/with_replies

It's plausible that putting 4680s in the S and X now without retooling the line for the structural pack would make sense. It would allow them to test the 4680 in the wild by putting them in Xs to be delivered this year without setting the X refresh back allowing them to be more confident about the new cell. "Beta" test the cells in the low volume X and S before putting the high volume ramp of the cybertruck or the semi at risk.

 

[Artful Dodger]

First production one?

Not a chance. Look at the sloppily applied RTV sealant/adhesive on the joining surfaces of the pack halves: this pack was hand-made.

What the (now delete from Redd.it) photo DID NOT show was the bty pack ASSEMBLY LINE. And as Elon loves to say, anybody can build a prototype. MASS PRODUCTION is 100x harder.

As usual, folks are jumping to the wrong conclusion while ignoring obvious problems with the narrative.

 

[Criscmt]

4680 Rumor
Can I add another piece that makes the puzzle even more interesting, biased towards confirmation of 4680?
Q2 P&D release page shows a Semi, as if that's coming shortly? 4680 fits well with this?

 

[Criscmt]

Not a chance. Look at the sloppily applied RTV sealant/adhesive on the joining surfaces of the pack halves: this pack was hand-made.

What the (now delete from Redd.it) photo DID NOT show was the bty pack ASSEMBLY LINE. And as Elon loves to say, anybody can build a prototype. MASS PRODUCTION is 100x harder.

As usual, folks are jumping to the wrong conclusion while ignoring obvious problems with the narrative.

What's your view on the signing part?
This has to be some milestone, whether 4680 or not?

 

[EVWatcher]

What's your view on the signing part?
This has to be some milestone, whether 4680 or not?

At least 2 of the signatures are from people who work in Reno, which is a long way from Kato road...

 

[Criscmt]

At least 2 of the signatures are from people who work in Reno, which is a long way from Kato road...

If it's in Reno, what's being celebrated in Reno that's related to battery pack?
Employees can work in different sites, not just in their home site?

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's your view on the signing part?
This has to be some milestone, whether 4680 or not?

End of the project? We have no idea when this picture was taken.

Elon said the difference from Plaid to Plaid+ wasn't big enough to matter, that the 18650 pack was already so good.

But people love to jump to the wrong conclusion, whenever SQUIRREL!

 

[EVWatcher]

If it's in Reno, what's being celebrated in Reno that's related to battery pack?
Employees can work in different sites, not just in their home site?

Just supplying more data to digest. There seem to be a number of logical points that make it less likely to be 4680s. I don't have any good guesses either way.

End of the project? We have no idea when this picture was taken.

Elon said the difference from Plaid to Plaid+ wasn't big enough to matter, that the 18650 pack was already so good.

But people love to jump to the wrong conclusion, whenever SQUIRREL!

Someone signed 2021 under their name in the middle. So I think its at least safe to say it was taken this year.