Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[st_lopes]

The tweet itself kind of brings to mind a question: Why would you line up at a store to buy an iPhone instead of just ordering it online? I guess I don't get "line-up culture" or whatever that would be called. At least with a Tesla, you go to the store to see the colors of the car in person and take a test drive and ask an employee questions about configuring your options. But you don't need any of that for an iPhone, it's just a phone and you order it if you want it.

Tell that to my wife that had to go to the Apple store not once, or twice… but four times… before she could decide on what model and color to buy to replace her 5+ year old phone.

 

[JRP3]

OP is incorrect. I was at this signing. Its a Plaid pack with 18650s.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/ohialv/_/h4q4tkq

There were 2 signed packs. One was the first Pack produced off of the new Pack battery line (The old manufacturing line for the 100KWH S/X was completely revamped and or thrown away during Dec-Feb. The 2nd time a pack was signed was for the first salable pack sometime in May, I forget what date exactly. A few things in the photo point me toward this being the Feb signing. Everyone in the photo is wearing jackets even though its during the day. The guys wearing black jackets with the semi reflective stripe on the sleeve (one signing on the right and one standing to the left) are Germans from Tesla Grohman Automation, the company we acquired back in 2015/2016. One of them signs it "4 TGA", if you don't believe my confirmation. It was too warm in May for everyone to be wearing jackets. The guy in the center of the photo wearing the Fitbit jacket and headphone around his neck is the program manager for converting the Pack line to the new battery.
The things that point me to it being the salable pack in May is that others in the photo were wearing the light blue lab coats. These are Arc flash rated coats worn as PPE. Fewer people had these in Feb than in May so that points to the May photo.
Idk who Bill Wright is, but he's wrong.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

 

[OrthoSurg]

But didn’t Elon say they had 4680s testing in cars for months already at Battery Day?

So why sign this one?

Might be the first one going in an actual production vehicle shipped to a customer

 

[The Accountant]

So, those green candles won't be coming from Q2 Earnings? (/jk, no rush)

I have seen you alluding to Fremont capacity expansion before, once referring to a clip in @gabeincal video.
Going by this demand, looks like fast Fremont capacity expansion will be very profitable step. But, I guess, there isn't enough room to practically expand significantly?
What's your estimate on capacity improvement in Fremont for Q3 Production.

There was a time prior to the pandemic that Telsa was able to grow Models 3/Y by 8k-10k per quarter in Fremont.
Now production capacity appears to be growing by about 5k per quarter. From watching @gabeincal Tesla flyover videos, you can see that Fremont has space constraints. Growth will need to come from Shanghai until Berlin/Austin are up and running.

Vs Q2, I will probably estimate deliveries above Q2 as follows"

+4k - Fremont Model 3/Y
+8k - Fremont Model S
+12k - Shanghai Mode 3/Y
+24k - Total Growth over Q2

It's conservative.....I know.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Tell that to my wife that had to go to the Apple store not once, or twice… but four times… before she could decide on what model and color to buy to replace her 5+ year old phone.

The only reason I went ti the Apple store was to compare size of my old iPhone 6 Plus and the screen of the new Pro Max va the IPhone SE. I was about to order online an iPhone SE when my colleague just gave me his old iPhone X because he got 4 new phones by switching from Vidéotron to Bell. It seems completely impossible for me to buy new iPhones. My friends are switching every year and I am usually waiting 3 years to switch. I have used iPhone 4s, IPhone 5c, iPhone 6 Plus and now and iPhone X from friends dropping me their old tech. I just don’t buy a new iPhone if my current one is functioning properly. And I give my old bicycles when I assemble my new triathlon and racing bikes to colleagues when I get a new sponsored one. I guess that’s like a service exchange.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Sometimes it seems like Tesla plays rope-a-dope when the FUD is high, and when the FUD dies down a bit, BAM! They come out swinging and the shorts don't know what hit them.

 

[juanmedina]

Well hopefully this results in a Roadster or an S I’m actually interested in. [active aero]

Current Plaid doesn’t have red calipers or Track Mode….just sayin.

If Tesla uses the 4680 pack on a track oriented Model S Plaid I can see many Plaid + ex reservation holders being super pissed at Tesla.

I can also see that many standard slight used Plaid will go on sale for me to purchase one at a nice discount .

 

[FireMedic]

If Tesla uses the 4680 pack on a track oriented Model S Plaid I can see many Plaid + ex reservation holders being super pissed at Tesla.

I can also see that many standard slight used Plaid will go on sale for me to purchase one at a nice discount .

I wouldn’t expect a discount. Have you looked at the used market for Teslas?

Here is the only 2 model Y (2020) available on carvana; already sold, pending transaction. With miles on them, for more than the price of a brand new 2021 version.

 

[Todd Burch]

It definitely doesn’t make sense for a Plaid+ pack to be coming out now. Elon would piss a LOT of people off to say that Plaid+ is cancelled, then come back just a few weeks later with a 4680 pack.

On the other hand, Bill Wright has an unblemished track record.

Head scratcher. The obvious answer is that this is a Plaid pack, but I’m not yet ready to write off Bill Wright’s confirmation.

 

[Maarten]

I don't think it's a big plate with holes, I think that's structural adhesive around empty cell casings.

When structural parts are glued together in stead of welding etc., the general principle is that the glue should be as thin as possible for optimal strength.
(Tip: the same applies if you want to glue something at your home. )

In the Twitter-picture as shown, which I believe is generated, there is so much material between the individual holes, that it looks like a plate with holes.
To me that seems sub-optimal: the cells should be closer to each other for the above reason.
The big question here is: do you need the glue/epoxy completely around the cell casing (filling every space to prevent micro-deformation of the individual cells), or only where they touch each other and the rest could be just air, resulting in a lighter battery pack?
We'll see what Tesla comes up with, I am curious.

 

[Jack6591]

Forgive the off-topic…

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=For%20those%20worried%20about%20running%20out%20of%20fresh%20water%2C%20it%20may%20help%20to%20know%20that%20desalination%20only%20costs%200.1%20cents%20per%20liter%20or%20half%20a%20cent%20per%20gallon&src=typed_query

I’m anxious to see Elon turn his focus to water technology.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It definitely doesn’t make sense for a Plaid+ pack to be coming out now. Elon would piss a LOT of people off to say that Plaid+ is cancelled, then come back just a few weeks later with a 4680 pack.

On the other hand, Bill Wright has an unblemished track record.

Head scratcher. The obvious answer is that this is a Plaid pack, but I’m not yet ready to write off Bill Wright’s confirmation.

No one is perfect. As we now have multiple sources denying it's 4680, I would lean towards it being a Plaid pack.

 

[gabeincal]

Conversation today at the playground while playing with my son:
.....
Him: So what do you work?
Me: I don't
Him: What do you mean?
Me: I'm retired for the time being and spend my time with my son
Him: How can you afford that?
Me: I've invested in TSLA and sell options for income
Him: But GM's super cruise is coming and Tesla will have so many competitors in 5 years
Me: Yeahh... Sorry I gotta go.

 

[2daMoon]

Sometimes it seems like Tesla plays rope-a-dope when the FUD is high, and when the FUD dies down a bit, BAM! They come out swinging and the shorts don't know what hit them.

Float like a butterfly,
Sting (shortz) like a Tesla

 

[Singuy]

The most critical guy on FSD beta Brandonee definitely felt like this build is a step change.
Looks almost good enough for prime time

 

[StealthP3D]

Him: But GM's super cruise is coming and Tesla will have so many competitors in 5 years
Me: Yeahh... Sorry I gotta go.

I like that he's giving us five years before we are crushed .

Most TSLA bears had the competition crushing Tesla in one to two years from 2018.

I guess this means by 2024 Tesla will only have seven or eight years left before the competition crushes them. Things are looking up!

 

[Singuy]

I like that he's giving us five years before we are crushed .

Most TSLA bears had the competition crushing Tesla in one to two years from 2018.

I guess this means by 2024 Tesla will only have seven or eight years left before the competition crushes them. Things are looking up!

That person is not a Tesla bear, but a regular person.

I was once someone who thought Tesla being a bad investment. Only dipped a small amount in after I got my Model 3 and a little bit more hoping to play the going to private at 420. When that didn't play out, my initial investment tanked a good 20-30% with all the SEC shenanigan's.

It was actually this forum and people like Karen and FC that showed me how Tesla is different. It takes awhile to understand Tesla as an energy company using their purchasable products as a platform to make money via software. It's not a very easy concept to initially think of when cars are the main focus and one would fall into the "it's a car company trap" with some cool tech.

In fact I would say most Tesla shareholders have no clue and I can see it all over in the FB Tesla investor group. Lots of weak hands in there not really getting the company like most "bears".

I still think Tesla is the hardest stock to understand/to get right..hence so many TslaQ got crushed, and most people had 5 years to buy Tsla for 50 bucks a share but missed out except a bunch of us on this forum. Even some of our best sold out early and missed the big re-rating.

 

[Ohmster]

Also, it’s a fun place to take the family. I ordered both of my Teslas in a store even though online was already an option. Both times I had my kids with me and they thoroughly enjoyed the experience of sitting in futuristic cars and pressing buttons!

Buttons???

 

[Artful Dodger]

James Locke - FSD Beta v9 1hr+ ride (35 min ago)

Model 3 - Beta FSD 9 - Santa Clarita to Mount Wilson - 2021.4.18.12 - 10 July 21 - Part 1 of 2

EDIT:

There appear to be some audio/playback issues with this video. Removed embedded video, but left links to his Youtube page (in case he re-releases this video).

 

[printf42]

Conversation today at the playground while playing with my son:
.....
Him: So what do you work?
Me: I don't
Him: What do you mean?
Me: I'm retired for the time being and spend my time with my son
Him: How can you afford that?
Me: I've invested in TSLA and sell options for income
Him: But GM's super cruise is coming and Tesla will have so many competitors in 5 years
Me: Yeahh... Sorry I gotta go.

I misread and thought this conversation was between you and your son.
Then I was impressed by the last question being asked by a child, and at the same time started to wonder how could that be your son.